Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 27/1/2020 09:17

These Chinese what eat mice ,rats,bats and whatever else these filthy animals eat. And they wonder why they get all these viruses.

[datait] 27/1/2020 08:52

Now many have been sucked in this morning they will drop this down.

[frontdoor bull] 27/1/2020 06:42

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-51238597

[frontdoor bull] 27/1/2020 06:41

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-51238597

[maturo] 26/1/2020 23:00

Turvart

what are you doing here alone?
Where is mumy/papy - white?

Is it true you gave him a hand with the rope?

[maturo] 26/1/2020 22:56

DON'T drink - amaretto - will poison YOU

[amaretto1] 26/1/2020 22:44

Oil going down !!! Simple ... world over supply Oil collapses .. Tullow bust !! Unless they reduce debt... sell off assets .........

[misca2] 26/1/2020 15:02

Oil Was Sick Even Before Coronavirus Hit

Liam Denning and Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg News








WUHAN, CHINA - JANUARY 22: People wear face masks as they wait at Hankou Railway Station on January 22, 2020 in Wuhan, China. A new infectious coronavirus known as "2019-nCoV" was discovered in Wuhan last week. Health officials stepped up efforts to contain the spread of the pneumonia-like disease which medical experts confirmed can be passed from human to human. Cases have been reported in other countries including the United States,Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. It is reported that Wuhan will suspend all public transportation at 10 AM on January 23, 2020. (Photo by Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images)

WUHAN, CHINA - JANUARY 22: People wear face masks as they wait at Hankou Railway Station on January 22, 2020 in Wuhan, China. A new infectious coronavirus known as "2019-nCoV" was discovered in Wuhan last week. Health officials stepped up efforts to contain the spread of the pneumonia-like disease which medical experts confirmed can be passed from human to human. Cases have been reported in other countries including the United States,Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. It is reported that Wuhan will suspend all public transportation at 10 AM on January 23, 2020. (Photo by Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images) , Photographer: Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images AsiaPac

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Oil succumbed to the coronavirus this week because its immune system was compromised already. Amid headlines about quarantined Chinese cities and dozens of potential cases showing up in the U.S., Brent crude closed on Friday at $60 and change, its lowest since Halloween. This is all the more remarkable when you consider January has seen several geopolitical shocks stretching from Libya to Iraq.

Like the outbreak itself, oil’s problems began in December with a fever of its own. Relief at a sudden truce in the U.S.-China trade war sparked a rally taking oil from about $62 a barrel close to $70 by the end of that month. Speculators, in retreat for much of 2019, suddenly piled in again. Hedge funds’ net length in the major crude and product contracts surged from less than 600 million barrels-equivalent to almost 900 million between early December and early January. On a rolling four-week basis, December saw the sharpest increase in long positions in my entire data series going back to the start of 2011 (and net length increased at its fastest rate in more than two years).

You’ll notice the fever began to break a little earlier this month. Friday’s report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net length dropped by 63 million barrels-equivalent, or 7%, in the two weeks after January 7.

But the way the fever subsided revealed continuing vulnerability. After all, prices dropped even as the killing of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani threatened to unleash chaos in one of the world’s biggest oil-producing countries, Iraq, and Libya’s tensions flared up again, blocking its oil exports. And this comes mere months after the collective shrugging-off of September’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil-processing facility. Besides fever, listlessness is also the hallmark of a sick patient.

So why has the oil market reacted strongly in response to coronavirus reports but not in the other direction when rockets are exploding in the Middle East?

There is likely a technical factor at play. Energy economist Phil Verleger points out oil producers such as Occidental Petroleum Corp. took advantage of the speculative rally to hedge their 2020 output. You can see this in the roughly 140 million barrel-equivalent expansion of swap dealers’ net short position in Nymex light sweet crude between early December and early January, a proxy for hedging activity by producers. As oil prices decline, particularly toward such key levels as $60 in Brent and $55 in WTI, so the banks that wrote the puts sell futures to manage their own exposure — a self-reinforcing spiral similar to what appeared to happen in the oil rout that closed out 2018.

Underlying this is the basic problem that has dogged the oil market for five years: excess supply and inventories relative to demand. The continuing OPEC+ cuts that got everyone excited back in 2016 are the surest sign of this chronic condition; but there are others, such as unusually subdued U.S. gasoline demand.

No one can accurately quantify what impact the coronavirus outbreak will have on oil prices. Novel diseases can ultimately amount to little or spark pandemics, with much in between. And the impact on oil demand, at least in the near term, has more to do with perceptions of infectiousness and what that does to travel and regular interaction rather than fatalities per se.

Oil traders are as much in the dark on the ultimate course of this as anyone. Meanwhile, on the supply side, they know there is spare capacity, a demonstrated Saudi pledge to maintain supply even if bombed and a U.S. fracking industry that is bowed but, if goaded enough price-wise, tends to produce more rather than less. In other words, the ceiling is in sharper focus than the floor right now.

To contact the authors of this story: Liam Denning at [e-mail] Gongloff at [e-mail]

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.

Mark Gongloff is an editor with Bloomberg Opinion. He previously was a managing editor of Fortune.com, ran the Huffington Post's business and technology coverage, and was a columnist, reporter and editor for the Wall Street Journal.

[turvart] 26/1/2020 13:52

oh I forgot about sarcasm, sorry the big hitter of the cfd market!

[sarkasm] 26/1/2020 13:32

Strong supports and 50 and 40p

[turvart] 26/1/2020 11:36

Is this the same crowd that get's taken to the cleaners every week by the MM's?

[turvart] 26/1/2020 11:33

All the muppets that buy Rio Tinto are now buying into TLW, yeah I see the picture!

The crowd!

[turvart] 26/1/2020 11:30

Oh yeah I get it RIO Tinto are now buying TLW stock?

[billy_buffin] 26/1/2020 08:39

Can't see a buyer for it...

[leoneobull] 26/1/2020 06:43

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001357920/why-tullow-total-are-shipping-out-of-kenya-s-oil-project-dreamTLW to sell 100% of stake. That with a further Ugandan farmdown could see 1 pound IMOV

[leoneobull] 26/1/2020 06:38

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001357920/why-tullow-total-are-shipping-out-of-kenya-s-oil-project-dreamTLW to sell whole Kenya stake. From today

[leoneobull] 26/1/2020 06:11

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angry-trump-casts-cloud-on-boriss-big-day-lhcs530wbBrexit will be fine, we can get close to the US (apart from our transatlantic differences on tech taxes, Iran, Huawei and Harry Dunn).Naive Brexitears.

[sentimentrules] 26/1/2020 00:00

Unprecedenteded spike

Cause?