Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[nicebut] 14/6/2018 16:18

Shell B`s up 1.6% and BP up 2% and TLW still down. Weirdly weird.

[billy_buffin] 14/6/2018 15:18

Jubilee start up next week?

[teamwork1] 14/6/2018 14:32

True tlw share price should be 3

[cojones] 14/6/2018 14:15

The market is bonkers is what it is. Surprised the share price hadnt risen past £3, but hey, patience will win hands down!

[romeike] 14/6/2018 14:04

This of course is good, perhaps a chance to add around 220-230p if lucky.

[alfiex] 14/6/2018 13:38

But tullow declining to march

[cojones] 14/6/2018 13:29

PoO marching on ;)

[frazboy] 14/6/2018 10:07

Mario

It is shale. GoM is pretty flat at 1.7mmbo/day as is conventional production elsewhere in the USoA. I think Texas shale (eagle ford and Permian) have been increasing production at around 120k/month for the last half dozen months or so. I’m running from memory here, but I think that’s broadly correct. They are the engine of US shale growth

[mariopeter] 14/6/2018 09:50

Of course it may not be shale contributing to the increase in US production well not the Permian anyway.

I saw a report that Venezuela may buy oil to fulfil its oil contracts and thought the end is nigh as nobody would give them $1. credit.

I have visions of MADuro zipping up lots of cases.

[xxnjr1] 13/6/2018 23:48

Shale still flying high despite the bottlenecks. EIA Weekly Report shows US production at yet another new record of 10884Kbopd. Thats an increase of 82Kbopd in one week, and 1.57 million bopd in a year. Seriously impressive.

[griffin81] 13/6/2018 15:59

Perhaps people finally realising OPEC+1 and the USA combined are going to struggle to fill the gap from Venezuela and Iran?

[cojones] 13/6/2018 15:50

PoO just shot up & still rising.Today could be the turnaround once more ;)

[nicebut] 13/6/2018 15:39

From IEA:

In Venezuela, the pace of decline of oil production is accelerating and by the end of this year output could have fallen by several hundred thousand barrels a day. Our April data show that Venezuela's production is 550 kb/d lower than its target under the Vienna Agreement and this "excess" is more than Saudi Arabia's total commitment. The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap, not just in terms of the number of barrels but also in terms of oil quality.

[billy_buffin] 13/6/2018 11:51

IEA Oil Market Report

[xxnjr1] 13/6/2018 08:05

Update on Namibia/Cormorant from Pancontinental

[mariopeter] 12/6/2018 16:21

"Force Majeure" could be declared by Venezuela any day now. I don't think the oil market is quite prepared for that. Not so sure it will be temporary either.

[xxnjr1] 12/6/2018 14:07

VNZ oil industry was in complete melt down. Now a disaster as they lost a recent case with ConocoPhillips, who seized their export tank farms on nearby Caribbean Islands. These were used to load Asia bound VLCC's. PDVSA can't utilise these facilities now. There's a backlog of about 80 tankers stacked up off VNZ's ports awaiting ship to ship loading. STS is slow. Apart from that PDVSA/CITGO tanker fleet can't sail because vessels might get impounded once out of Venezuelan waters. Dunno what Simon Bolivar would have made of it all. Hope they sort this mess out soon, for the sake of the Venezuelan people. May need another revolution.

[paradores] 12/6/2018 13:10

Think Iran are out of the game (in any meaningful way) until the Donald reverses polarity and feels the need to satisfy his ego and grandstand there as he has done with N Korea. Not sure what will come of that though and the Iranians certainly aren't likely to engage with DT anytime soon.
The greatest risk to oil in the next 6-12 months IMHO is Venezuela. It's coming apart before our very eyes and no one seems to be showing much interest (yet). Should OPEC hold fast I think things could get fruity. The other massive unanswered 'Q' is what truly is the state of Saudi infrastructure - even if they wanted to pump more, could they do so materially - the jury is v much out on that one.

[mariopeter] 12/6/2018 13:07

Link to Iran historical oil production.

[mariopeter] 12/6/2018 12:33

Agree with that. OPEC will keep restricting the market and will only relax them if Iran stops producing some of its 3.5 mbopd. If Iran has to stop all oil production (unlikely) then even OPEC et al could not make up the shortfall.

[paradores] 12/6/2018 09:15

I believe the market and S/D balance will remain tight for the foreseeable and possibly well into 2019, with price risk (if not shock-spike) to the upside. Right now the Saudis have what they want; a tight, relatively stable market. There are clearly issues with Iran and Venezuela (prod/supply loss if not economic collapse) but Saudi has little wiggle room or desire, for that matter, to dramatically increase production and cause another glut.

IMHO Vienna will bring some token platitudes and gestures but nothing material from them. I expect OPEC will keep a 'light touch' on the wheel.

[cojones] 12/6/2018 08:22

PoO rising once more. Could be a good time to buy and pocket a few of these ;)
Edit:watch out for the afternoon rocket!

[cojones] 11/6/2018 17:13

Tbanks nicebut ...it's more complicated of course! Lets just say it's easier to keep things simple and not overcomplicate matters ;)

[nicebut] 11/6/2018 16:47

It means, all things being equal, its going up- I hope! But PoO and the trading update probably will have a big influence on direction....

[cojones] 11/6/2018 16:46

Not telling you lol... go & google it ;)