Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[paradores] 28/6/2018 08:42

Confident update. TLW is back!

[xxnjr1] 28/6/2018 08:41

Found it encouraging that Cairn Energy have taken 30% of Ivory Coast onshore! Decent exploration partner.

[nicebut] 28/6/2018 08:36

O/T

How you doing Phillis?

Yes, but Eng cricket team very strong and great to watch atm. Good to see Oz humbled.

[xxnjr1] 28/6/2018 08:34

I await the Seadrill verdicts with interest!

[xxnjr1] 28/6/2018 08:32

pleasantly surprised by realized OP frazboy, given they had 45Kbopd "hedged" at a floor price of $52.33.

Bootycall - Gas compression "uplift" may mean restoring things back to normal. (there was some issue with below par gas compression on Jubilee) but good to know it's sorted now.

[frazboy] 28/6/2018 08:30

"What is the max provision for costs and award for Seadrill/Kosmos claims?"

Approx 47.5% + the Kosmos share (20%?), so ~70% of $270m, or around $200m or, to put it another way 10p on the share price

[phillis] 28/6/2018 08:29

Crisis now well and truly in the past

NB - your new mate cant get much of a bat in the T20
Wish he was playing at Scarborough

[mercer95] 28/6/2018 08:22

Bad day to release the trading update, the market in general is in sell off mood at the moment, I’m gonna keep holding

[nicebut] 28/6/2018 08:21

What is the max provision for costs and award for Seadrill/Kosmos claims?

[bootycall] 28/6/2018 08:14

I suspect they could have upped guidance more as the first TEN well was "successfully drilled" and they will know already from the logs its likely production capabilities.The gas compression uplift is very pleasing. The additional rig suggests a great deal of confidence and without increasing the capex budget for the year ! GLA

[frazboy] 28/6/2018 08:00

agree xxnjr

and i note the realised oil price is about $4 below spot prices, some of which is no doubt due to the forward selling of cargos, but some is a result of the hedging. i think this was debated before, but the hedging does limit some of the upside (this was discussed in the company's full year results).

[xxnjr1] 28/6/2018 07:57

Main fly in the ointment is the Seadrill case, claiming $277m from partners, with Kosmos disputing it's liable for any award to Seadrill, as they say (iirc) Tullow acted independently without getting appropriate instructions from the joint operating committee for TEN development drilling. I was aware of a potential Seadrill claim, but since it wasn't mentioned at all in the last annual report (afaics), I assumed it wasn't a live issue. Kind of surprised Tullow have been somwhat backward in coming forwards about this!

[nicebut] 28/6/2018 07:50

Free cash flow is $300m...From their tweet:


@TullowOilplc expects in H1 to report revenue of $0.9 billion, gross profit of $0.5 billion and to generate $0.3 billion of free cash flow.

[midasx] 28/6/2018 07:50

The hearings were in January and May!

I am sure the management defended against the claims at that point.

But then again you know that, do you not?

[rationaleee] 28/6/2018 07:48

HY'17 realised oil price was $58 while HY18 realised oil price was $67. That's $9 higher from last year yet FCF is only $100mn higher? Shouldn't HY FCF be closer to $350mn-$400mn? Looks like Seadrill/Kosmas will be able to win their claims given the management has not mentioned anything about defending against the claims.

[rationaleee] 28/6/2018 07:41

HY'17 realised oil price was $58 while HY18 realised oil price was $67. That's $9 higher from last year yet FCF is only $100mn higher? Shouldn't HY FCF be closer to $350mn-$400mn? Looks like Seadrill/Kosmas will be able to win their claims given the management has not mentioned anything about defending against the claims.

[mercer95] 28/6/2018 07:38

Some decent numbers & no big shocks,debt down & gross profit up, looking good for Tullow IMO

[olivert] 28/6/2018 07:24

Guidance was 76,000 - 85,000 boe/d.

If you take the Guidance average 80,500 boe/d against the Group production average of 92,000 boe/d. Then we have a volume increase of 14.1%

Also regarding poo. It is now $ 77.41 per barrel for Brent Oil.

[mariopeter] 28/6/2018 07:23

New bullish production target
More gas sales
TEN to go larger than capacity
New production rig within current capex budget
Uganda FID by year end
Jubilee struggled (understandable)
Net debt spot on

lots to look forward to

[olivert] 28/6/2018 07:17

Overall Group production for the Full Year is now 89,000 - 95,000.

[nicebut] 28/6/2018 07:17

Debt down to 3.2bn and 2nd rig contracted. Oil production upgraded 86k to 92k

[888icb] 28/6/2018 07:16

RNS very positive Trading Statement and Operations Update.

[xxnjr1] 27/6/2018 20:57

That's a good find oilretire. And straight from the the horses mouth



That's a lot of wells. Be interesting to see this from Total's perspective - presumably they and Africa Oil are in complete alignment?

[oilretire] 27/6/2018 20:36

Phase 1 Kenya - 300 wells over a 5 year program from 2020.



Also the 2kbopd test production will be shipped out once 200k or 400k bbls has been amassed.

[xxnjr1] 27/6/2018 19:30

Last time I walked up

and

the share price crossed 240p and quickly shot up to 275p

I was up there today.
Coincidentally the share price crossed 240p again. 280p beckons with a bit of help from the neolithic spirits.