Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fraserdean] 17/7/2018 10:06

As long as Brent is in the $65 plus range then Tullow is very happy, the share price is always a drama queen, it's all about getting Ghana production up, FID on Uganda would be nice, Kenya less certain but not much value in the share price. Need to restock exploration acreage, Namibia well is high risk and not good enough returns, ivory coast is years away

[paradores] 17/7/2018 09:59

US simply have to reverse their position on Iran. By the end of 3Q there will be absolutely no wiggle room on supply, spare capacity/production and inventories to deal with any shocks - that's a very dangerous place to be and entirely the result of one man's ego and belligerence. The Trump simply wants his name on any Iran-US deal, the big Q of course is will the Iranians talk to him? I think no time soon.
Current weakness in Brent a total head-fake, though as far as the global economy is concerned the long it stays in the $70-80 range the better.

China and India demand had better slow down...but I can't see it. The picture is quite the reverse.

[subsurface] 17/7/2018 00:36

Hi Mc,
With China,Brexit and the Trump factor its a lot to take in the price of oil which sometimes Tullow tracks very volatile ,Tullow has to decide this week if to appeal the drilling case then Kosmos and perhaps the other partners waiting too.On Uganda they will try to screw Tullow for what they can get,Kenya has protests some trucking suspended,and then the Peru licences in doubt.I have been with Tullow for a very long time I think the price of Oil has saved us,guess we have to take the good with the bad Heavey clocks off this week we have to give the new management a chance with, the debt pile coming down a bit of luck and a steady hand.SS

[mcsean2164] 16/7/2018 23:11

I guess that's it, just very disappointing to see very little upside from the oil price recovery....

[mercer95] 16/7/2018 21:09

End of the month oil contract roll over didn’t help & weak data from China 🇨🇳 oil will be up tomorrow & inventories down, that’s my prediction Tullow will just have to pay the fine & move on GLA

[mcsean2164] 16/7/2018 21:03

Why? Why Tullow, why?

[xxnjr1] 16/7/2018 16:32

We have our answer. Bought a few at the end but don't really trust TLW, or rather it's meandering share price Lower ascending trend line about 195p.

[frazboy] 16/7/2018 13:21

Yep! it'll be interesting to see if the support (225 ish) holds.

[xxnjr1] 16/7/2018 12:55

Yes - I thought Tullow would open in the 220's that day frazboy. It didn't, but that's where we are now!

[frazboy] 12/7/2018 13:27

Amazed at the calm response by the oilers this morning to last night's capitulation by Brent. A few random thoughts...

I've noticed that frequently, the price of TLW etc, does not move in response to an after close movement of the oil price - it's as if the algos just switch off at market close and then back on again at open, and don't bother cross-referencing the opening/closing prices of crude

The price of TLW etc, is no longer impacted by the short dated Brent curve - possibly due to the fact that shareholders have increasingly longer time horizons, and probably correctly, believe, that a shortage is coming, if not next month, or the one after, then the one a few months after that.

And finally, maybe shareholders are just becoming thick skinned to the Trump (not that he was responsible for all of last night's drop), as he's likely to reverse any position he's taken on Iranian exports sometime in the near future.

[xxnjr1] 11/7/2018 19:58

Half-time :-)

WTI bounced off $70, currently $70.89 -4.25%
Brent $74.13 -5.97%

WTI off less, due to EIA report: oil drawdown of 12.6m bbls.

would have thought WTI/Brent spread will widen going forwards, as China planning to slapp a tariff on US oil imports, meaning they may source lighter crudes from W/Afr, rather than US. As an aside, noteworthy China hasn't slapped a tariff on LNG. That would be shooting themselves in the foot.

[zingaro] 11/7/2018 17:45

Reference to Libya resolving its oil crisis



"The east Libyan strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar has handed back control of the oil ports under his authority to the country’s national oil corporation, ending a three-week dispute that had effectively closed down the country’s oil industry and threatened to strangle efforts at political reconciliation across Libya."

[billy_buffin] 11/7/2018 17:12

WOW Quite considerable daily production from Norway.
June figure combining liquids Oil, NGL, condensate 1.747mmbls/d

[romeike] 11/7/2018 16:51

Oil Worker Strike in Norway

[frazboy] 11/7/2018 16:44

I can't help but think that the OPEC monthly report has a political element to it - they know they'll struggle to maintain output at current levels or above, but SA don't want to upset Trump

[nicebut] 11/7/2018 16:34

I thought big draw meant PoO went up? normally?

[billy_buffin] 11/7/2018 16:29

FT just now says:

Opec will struggle to deliver Trump’s lower prices.
Cartel faces serious challenges despite injection of extra crude from Libya

Sites Venez. Angola and Cartel struggle, Edit: and Libya

[frazboy] 11/7/2018 14:18

I was surprised to read that this morning too. Pays to do your own research on these outages. Sure, Venezuela is in decline (currently) but all other outages look more temporary in nature

[xxnjr1] 11/7/2018 14:10

Libya pumping bit of a surprise - I'd kind of assumed they might be out of the picture for a while. Hadn't noticed that news frazboy. Now I know.

[frazboy] 11/7/2018 14:03

Quite a material series of events for the OP todayChina sanctionsLibya pumping again Opec report claiming that the world is well supplied and will be back in surplus next year, particularly as they expect a slowdown in growth rate

[xxnjr1] 11/7/2018 13:02

bootycall - there was talk from TLW in the early days a few years after Jubilee startup, about eventually getting plateau up to 145Kbopd from existing FPSO, but then various issues arose

1. Some wells needed new gravel pack completions as clogged up with "fines".
2. Late arrival of GNGC onshore facilities, meant throttling back wells to avoid too much gas being re-injected to reservoir.
3. Associated gas flaring was required sometimes to mitigate (2.)
4. One or even both water injection pumps wore out and needed replacing.
5. Issues with below par "pump" for gas re-injection.
6. The well documented turrett issue.

All of above have sapped talk of 145K these days - it would be good just to get to 125K.

Both FPSO's built by MODEC, with subsea systems by TechniqFMC. TEN seems the more reliable of the two floaters.

[bootycall] 11/7/2018 11:56

xxnjr1. I totally agree. The good news is help is on its way !

hxxps://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2018/06/two-rigs-to-speed-drilling-completion-operations-offshore-ghana.html

In my opinion both the Ten & Jubilee FPSOs can have their operating capacities upgraded to 100kbpd and 120kbpd respectively, shortly after new producers can be tied in. I also believe there will be considerable movement in the rebooking of reserves from P50 to P90 (1P) and from P10 to P50 (2P) ( especially in Kenya)which will drive NAVs towards £4.00 per share over the next 12-18 months. DYOR

[xxnjr1] 11/7/2018 09:07

Unfortunately, TLW doesn't yet have a differentiating narrative, so it's just getting tossed around by OP, which is in itself being tossed around by tweets from Washington, comments from Iran and Saudi etc. the latest being



once increased output from Ghana starts showing up in the numbers, then sentiment should improve.

[subsurface] 11/7/2018 04:36

Hi Aishah,

Chronic under investment so many problems in the world and the Trump factor is putting the spot light on oil ,this is helping Tullow recover ready get some value added with the drill bit.

hxxps://www.energy-pedia.com/news/norway/hundreds-of-norway-oil-workers-to-strike-after-talks-fail-174104



very interesting times,


regards

SS

[bootycall] 10/7/2018 22:43

Lloyds recently pulled £109bn from Standard Life , which would have meant liquidating approx 17% of total AUM .....I wonder if the sale could be linked to this ?