Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr1] 03/7/2018 07:38

Excellent post SS.

[subsurface] 03/7/2018 06:32

Sea drill / Tullow Ghana

Judgement due today 3rd July 2018

SS

[xxnjr1] 02/7/2018 23:38

God if oil dropped to $30/bbl this company would be bust, with it's $3bn debt load.

[oilretire] 02/7/2018 23:26

Yes opex is low, but that basically only covers producing assets.

Don't forget capex costs for explo & new projects.

And servicing the debt....

[nicebut] 02/7/2018 23:01

Weird how the Poo has reacted. Guess it reacted on Friday? Old news now...? V strange.

[mariopeter] 02/7/2018 20:30

Group operating cost is $12 a barrel. Whims of the private investors and day traders. Some poor reporting on situation in Kenya does not help.

[parminder1969] 02/7/2018 16:39

If Tullow’s ooerating cost is going to be between $15-20 per barrel, why isn’t that reflected in its sp?

[mccracken227] 02/7/2018 16:10

Oil kind of static so what's the problem here?

[xxnjr1] 02/7/2018 14:54

the 850K is offline now

[mariopeter] 02/7/2018 11:46

Whitehouse withdrawn the tweets as would upset the delegate balance of OPEC.

[griffin81] 02/7/2018 11:38

For all of Trumps bluster over the weekend, and highly misleading statements, it has hardly impacted Brent. Will be interesting to see what happens later when the US is online, but for now the sell off in TLW this morning looks like an overreaction. At $78+ the netbacks are huge, this should be pushing up to test resistance levels, not dropping.

[xxnjr1] 02/7/2018 11:07

I reckon we are treading water waiting for his lordship to opine.

[adg] 02/7/2018 10:55

I have been in the projects area of O&G for some 27 years now, prior to that in operations since 83 training with bpx in dyce.
I have seen 3 cycles first hand but this recent one has been unlike the previous 2 - it has been barbaric and I have seen all but the biggest projects (that were too far progressed) go by the wayside. I had the week in Aberdeen last week visiting new clients (oilcos and EPC's) the overriding message was that things haven't really improved on the investment side yet, a glimmer of positivity but still severe lack of investment.
I for one am almost all in on selected oilers but am different from many as I have a forward look at the supply/demand in my own simplistic terms - thus far I am sitting very pretty (could have been better as I started buying on the downslope so was underwater for a while but the SP's took longer to recover after oil bottomed than I thought). I still believe that we have a lot further to go (multi-baggers on many small to mid cap companies IMVHO) - just a bit of foresight and patience needed.
Trump is a narcissistic infantile idiot egotist - so surprised he is still in office - bloody idiot orang-utan-esque Muppet faced pillock

[bootycall] 02/7/2018 10:53

mcsean2164

Peak oil is worth debating but please bear in mind that this most experts predict peak oil in the late 2020's whilst Exxon believes oil demand may still be growing up to 2040's. Just bear in mind some economies in the world are still relying on coal for power production.



hxxp://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/

In reality let's prepare for the argument against investing in oil.
Lets say for arguments sake only companies who can make a decent return on capital on $40 oil will survive in a lower pricing environment. The good news is that oil service costs have collapsed over the last several years bringing most e&p's break even at levels below $40 per barrel. Tullow of course has been planning for ages for this eventuality. Note page 6 of this slide presentation from 2015 where Tullow plans for total cash flow break even cost of between $15-$20 per barrel.

In my opinion Jubilee will be operating on a cash cost of under $7 per barrel by the end of 2019 assuming only a modest production increase. Similar numbers apply to Ten.
Now let's look at a rush to the bottom, where only the lowest cost producers survive. Our dear junk bond funded friends operating in the Permian basin ,which is the only US shale play which has not peaked in terms of production, have an estimated longer term break even of between $22-$37 per barrel(slide 10 source Morgan Stanley).

hxxp://investors.pxd.com/static-files/a3fc6354-04ce-49c9-85c3-37e3e6af73cc

If you come to the conclusion that Tullow has world class assets which can be produced at the lowest quartile of cash operating costs you can become objective, realising that excellent returns on capital can be achieved for decades to come. Of course if Tullow believes the oil market will be decimated long term it can simply switch to gas exploration where demand is predicted to rise by Shell for the next four decades!

Lastly remember there has always been a lot of oil in the world. The easiest production onshore has been produced from giant fields which have virtually all matured. Much of the reserves left will require huge amounts of investment in fracking or deep water expertise. Tullow is very well positioned for this to all play out. Hopefully we can all receive some great fat dividend cheques at $30 per barrel. No need to panic quite yet !

[mcsean2164] 02/7/2018 09:46

Peak oil predicted for 2021 by Utah Professor. So sick of Tullow share price Feel like lowering my target from 3.25p, just can't understand this share at all.

[mariopeter] 02/7/2018 09:15

Compared to a year ago when world oil supply was short 500000 bopd, world demand increased by 1m, Venezuala lost 500,000, Iran is projected to lose say 1m and Libya has lost 350000 and could lose another 450000 any minute. That's a big hole to fill and pretty sure it can't be filled.

[teamwork1] 01/7/2018 14:45

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nation.co.ke/business/Tullow-hires-consultants-in-Turkana-oil-output-build-up/996-4637138-view-asAMP-70jjt8z/index.html

[frazboy] 01/7/2018 11:42

Also uncomfortable. The FID isn't until next year. The Africa Oil share price (market cap same as cash balance) says it's worth nothing. If you were to do a comparison (PMO vs. TLW) that's another material issue to take into account as that fact was not made clear to the markets until earlier this year (although the Canaccord analyst seemed to be on the ball a bit sooner)

[rationaleee] 01/7/2018 11:16

Is it just me thats not comfortable with TLW investing in Kenya? These latest videos don't give comfort in committing massive capital? Would the pipeline be safe when built? These reports from yesterday " Tension remains high as residents protest against Tullow oil -

[frazboy] 01/7/2018 10:24

I think he's just serving to highlight the fact that the market is tight.Xx - $4 was perhaps a bit more of a discrepancy than I was expecting, but if you were to assume that they were to forward sell cargoes by 1 month that would make a $2 difference.Rationaleee - just a thought but if you're going to compare the relative performance then you need to capture material events like PMO's discovery in Mexico (worth 20p a share?). I doubt Tullows convertibles have any impact on the SP

[nicebut] 30/6/2018 18:11

Is the Donald panicking? I wonder how the markets will view that, on top of the Lybian thing...