Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[teamwork1] 05/6/2018 15:25

If poo doesn't recover buy tomorrow then this will drop further

[mariopeter] 05/6/2018 13:38

Apologies the third last paragraph was for Gordo in my 32600 link. Its the converse of what is happening now.

[alfiex] 05/6/2018 13:25

Mario February news?

[gordo58] 05/6/2018 12:01

I must admit I don't get the WTI brent differential explanation - wTi supplies are being choked by lack of pipeline capacity - so there is a lack of supply leading to the price falling behind Brent ???? - when has a supply problem ever lead to a fall in prices ????

[mariopeter] 05/6/2018 11:23

USA has no right to ask for increased OPEC supply and frankly should only happen after Iran sanctions kick in. They have contributed negatively to stabilising the oil market. Iran exports tween 2 and 3 mbopd ...so 1 mbopd extra from OPEC (Max production from OPEC) could still be a problem.

Anyway the inventory figures may not be good this week in the US as driving season will have used up some "gas", there was a storm and the differential between WTI and Brent will mean that US exports will have received a boost.

[gordo58] 05/6/2018 10:55

US have asked for OPEC to up production by 1 mill barrels - maybe OPEc will agree if US agree to freeze US production at current levels ;)

[xxnjr1] 05/6/2018 01:50

BB - Good point about the liquids and condensate. Looking at the WCTP PSA, signed in 2004 by Kosmos Energy "... the contractor has the right to extract Condensate and Natural Gas Liquids". Would this take place on the FPSO, or in the onshore processing plant at Atuabo? Either way NGL's and Condensate don't currently seem to show up in TLW's accounts on the revenue side.

PSA also says if associated gas deemed non-economic by Contractor, then GNPC shall have the option to offtake such gas at the outlet flange of the gas/oil separator. Hence the compromise over the free 200bcf gas, as explained by bootycall in previous posts.

A gas sales agreement for Jubilee has yet to be negotiated.

According to Kosmos's recent 10-K filing, TEN associated gas GSA was signed Dec/17 at the heady price of $0.50/mmbtu. ENI get $9.8/mmbtu. Weird.

[billy_buffin] 04/6/2018 17:33

xxn was shocked and stunned to hear that we get nix for gas from Jubilee!

Looking at the plant PFD (old and fuzzy) also need to consider loss of revenue from the LPG liquids and gas condensate. these command a good price and are presently sent to storage/sale or export in liquid form. At 130mmscf/d production it will amount to several thousand barrels per day.

Furthermore Phase 1 extraction (now) uses a simple pressure letdown process for bulk LPG extraction (JT valve). Phase 2 will utilise process plant to separate to storage butane, propane and condensate with even greater value.

[teamwork1] 04/6/2018 16:33

More buyers then sellers so why is it down

[ifthecapfits] 04/6/2018 16:19

Yep - that's it.

[xxnjr1] 04/6/2018 16:10

Thanks itcf, must have been this feature. The camera never lies.



As you say, can only be Tullow. Lead truck had Tullow decals.

Is this 1st 70K bbls oil stored from past DST's, or new oil being produced now? Not sure if the now part is on stream yet? But anyway, we'll probably get news with the next trading update.

Ps... I wondered what happened to my old giant size Nescafe cans - looks like they are now being utilised in the processing plant ;-)

[ifthecapfits] 04/6/2018 15:19

There was a good bit on Aljazera last night about 10:15ish all to do with Kenyan oil, trucking of oil to Mombasa and the future for the industry in the country. Might be worth seeking out. TLW wasn't specifically mentioned as far as I could tell - but couldn't be anyone else........

[oilretire] 02/6/2018 17:12

Having struck oil six years after Uganda, beating its neighbour to market sends positive vibes to investors who are likely to look at Kenya as a country that means business.

[xxnjr1] 01/6/2018 15:35

frazboy - sorry it's not really something I'm up to speed on. I'm just regurgitating stuff from others! There was something about the differential on oilprce.com



And also the FT.



Analysts say the spread reflects in part the cost of alternate means of transportation for the crude, such as tanker trucks, though brokers have said finding enough available vehicles and drivers is difficult to make the trade work.

I also read somewhere that VLCC rates are going up on some long distance routes into Asia.

Edit:---> Correction: demand for VLCC going up, but pricing still seems in doldrums.

[nicebut] 01/6/2018 14:17

PoO dropping.

[teamwork1] 01/6/2018 14:15

Why the drop?

[frazboy] 01/6/2018 13:13

Xxnjr - I'm trying to get my head round why that's making the differential so high. I kinda figured the oil was being sold from a collection terminal rather than the wellhead? If it's from the wellhead I can understand the discounting (high marginal cost of transportation) but if the discount is also at the terminal maybe it reflects shipping bottlenecks too?

[mariopeter] 01/6/2018 13:08

US too dependant on imported oil and a tariff would turn the taps off. 1970s oil shock all over again ... don't think. Rest of world could however put tariffs on US oil which leaves them swimming in their own puddle just like what occurred in Canada earlier this year.

[xxnjr1] 01/6/2018 12:42

Permian pipelines at capacity, not enough trucks and railcars to evacuate surplus.

[nicebut] 01/6/2018 12:40

Mr T will probably slap a tariff on imported oil!