Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[oilretire] 15/2/2018 21:10

Kenya press FWIW

[teamwork1] 15/2/2018 20:49

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Seeks-Capacity-Buffer-To-Counter-Dollar-Led-Oil-Price-Jumps.html

[xxnjr1] 15/2/2018 17:48

Mid-cap oilers are getting a bit thin on the ground.

TLW £2.4bn, CNE £1.07bn, PMO £542m, ENQ £345m, SIA £331m.

TLW M/Cap equals the next 4 combined on that list.

I agree TLW is getting its house in order fuji99. I think things will be clearer as we move into H2 18. H1 production will probably be flat to down. Due to the drilling sequence in Ghana. 3 wells will be drilled to TD (roughly 90 days in total) and only then will they complete the 1st well (+20 to 30 days?) So that means 1st new well in Ghana on stream about Mid June or July perhaps. So not much impact, if any, from drilling in 1H. Then wells 2 and 3 will be completed Jul/Aug. Then maybe they drill 3 more to TD and complete those in mid/late Q4? The optimal solution time wise would be to have 2 rigs. Maersk Venturer would drill 3 or 4 to TD and in parallel another rig would come in and complete the wells, accelerating Ntomme well 1st oil by 60 days. You'd save on overall rig days per well, as less down time changing kit on rigs. Anyway TLW are still analysing the "Delta" between 1 or 2 rig program. It may never happen. Y2019 should be much better with Jubilee/TEN firing on all cylinders and some of the W.Afr non-op benefitting from a bit of infill drilling.

[mcsean2164] 15/2/2018 17:28

Thanks guys, so Kenya is not good but things should be ok in Tullow.

Another red day, astonished we're only here, will probably need $70 oil or continued stability to get back above £2. Groan!

[leoneobull] 15/2/2018 17:24

Up and down like a yo-yo today.

[fuji99] 15/2/2018 16:45

IMO Tullow is one of the best mid-cap oiler to have in a portfolio.
It is starting to make huge progress for profitability and dividends.
I wouldn't compare it with CNE which still too "lossy" for my liking.

[xxnjr1] 15/2/2018 16:30

On a 3 month chart CNE has underperformed TLW, which is surprising.
On a 1 month chart they are basically in lockstep.

So on that simplistic comparison Kenya hasn't impacted significantly.

edit! --> Just noticed Barclays have moved from 210p overweight to 190p equal weight.

Just had a look at UEN's chart. Well done Greg. I should have paid more attention when you mentioned that situation before!

[alfiex] 15/2/2018 16:27

Oil up tullow down....sounds right not manipulated at all!!!!

[gregpeck7] 15/2/2018 16:08

Moved more into uen earlier that's bagged this year and looks cheap.. the mid caps are not really at the races at the moment. Kenya is starting to look significantly less rosy..

[xxnjr1] 15/2/2018 16:01

Tullows chart starting to look a bit precarious!

[frazboy] 15/2/2018 10:17

mcsean,

A farm out... perhaps not a lot. looks to me to be a stranded asset, Capex too high and not enough easy reserves to be developed. the recovery factor in these reservoirs is relatively low due to the depositional setting, rift basin, with lots of sand and shale interspersed infill. hence the need for a a high well density to drain the reserves in the two fields that they plan to develop first. if you listen to the press conference Paul McDade slips when an analyst asked him if you would develop the fields on the basis of the phased (210 MM barrels initially) development if only the initial trance were to be produced - he starts to say absolutely not, but then corrects himself and says probably not!

the difficulty i have in making an adjustment for Kenya in an evaluation is that, what did the market value Kenya at prior to the results? the shares had been sliding for a few weeks (albeit in a weak market, with a sliding oil price), so perhaps not much, a few hundred million tops?

xxnjr, a stunning bit of business by Africa Oil - by the way, have you looked back at their presentations, they had 2C resources of over 700 MM barrel. i would still like to know what press reports the analyst at Cannacord had been reading - I don't think they were the reports written by the Standard!?

[billy_buffin] 15/2/2018 09:58

Kenya (Africa Oil Feb 7th Ops Update)

'The initial stage is planned to include 210 wells through 18 well pads at Ngamia and 70 wells through seven well pads at Amosing, with a planned plateau rate of 60,000 to 80,000 bopd'

Average per well just 380 bopd using 25 pads?

Sounds like the Bakken or Permian!

[eodfire] 15/2/2018 09:25

Just straightforward ramping.

[carbon man] 15/2/2018 09:14

Why must we have other stocks puffed on the wrong boards ? If I wanted to have interest in UEN, I would go to that board. I am sure that this doesn't happen for
philanthropic reasons.

[xxnjr1] 15/2/2018 09:10

and we know there are 4 billion barrels in place in Kenya.

well they surprised me on the call when they said something like ".....the 4bn was a P(something) number (i.e the 4bn isn't a concrete number either) there's actually a range of numbers for oil in place (but they haven't told us what these are) But the 4bn is a high case scenario. If you use a more conservative number the recovery factor would go up....."

that was in answer to a Q about Kenya recovery factor being low % of oil in place.

[mariopeter] 15/2/2018 08:41

They upgraded Uganda without doing any further drilling just studying the seismic and historical drilling results and they feel they may well achieve the same in Ghana. My understanding is that it is normal to have 1/3rd of oil in place as recoverable (ignoring fracking which improves recovery significantly) and we know there are 4 billion barrels in place in Kenya. Question of study time. Further it's not one puddle it's several so if one test was a let down then unlikely to apply to all. Uganda farm out is taking its time and guessing Government checking out gains tax rules. Meantime we are to spend another $100m on capex in 2018 until the farm out actually happens. I feel Tullow will re-rate now significantly on the government agreement of the farm out as they get back a lot of cash and probably a nice chunk of the very meaty contingency in the deferred consideration which will no longer apply as progress has been made. May get $300m in cash....re-rate.

[mcsean2164] 15/2/2018 07:40

Thanks Paul,

How much could tlw realize from a farm out do you think?

[paulbiya] 15/2/2018 06:52

The response was that yes it might be difficult to fund a pipeline of one billion usd under the low case scenario but it could be that over one billion is recoverable under a best case making it highly commercial. So depends which scenarios one believes I hope they sell down and hand over operatorship to total

[paulbiya] 15/2/2018 06:50

Mcsean. Listen to audio. Fact that almost all questions were about Kenya can only mean analysts concerned about future growth

[master rsi] 14/2/2018 23:53

Top mark for the oil price spike late on the day resulting on a 2.4% rise

Intraday Oil price futures - WTI light sweet -------------------------- BRENT crude -----------