Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[oilretire] 07/2/2018 08:38

Coming out of the recent low price environment the hedging agreements become more complex but clever IMHO. The way I read this is most, if not all current production is getting sold at the current POO.The 2018 hedging programme protects 60% of group production at an average floor of $52/bbl, with 40% of group production capped through collars at an average of $75/bbl, 20% uncapped and fully exposed to the upside and the remaining 40% of production unhedged.

[ifthecapfits] 07/2/2018 08:35

and yet the share price still languishes.....frustrating.

[midasx] 07/2/2018 07:54

$1.7 billion sales revenue; $543 million free cash flow; 2.6x gearing ratio

Exploration portfolio fully re-set: multiple high impact campaigns over next three years.

Excellent Results!

They have addressed the total debt and gearing that the shorts have used to beat Tullow with in a low oil price environment.

The future looks rosy!

[mariopeter] 07/2/2018 07:51

Kenya fields truly titan. 4 billion barrels in place. Be fracking there long after I am pushing up daisies.

[spirito] 07/2/2018 07:51

great results on a much lower oil price. if oil stays above 60 2018 will be amazing and pretty sure a div will be paid. Sit tight snd ignore the volatility

[frazboy] 07/2/2018 07:43

xxnjr - interesting, that's an exit rate for 2018 in excess of 11Mbopd (in order to achieve that average) - we should expect the Permian to be adding 100k+ barrels a day per month for several months (I'm assuming that GoM production will be relatively flat during the rest of the year)

[opodio] 07/2/2018 07:28

Oil prices have fallen about 4 percent from the highs hit late last month, dropping sharply on the two trading days of Friday, February 2 and Monday, February 5. The losses were largely the result of the financial turmoil across the globe, as traders and algorithms seemed poised to reprice equities after an extraordinary bull run over the past year.

Oil was dragged down in the morass, although individual energy companies suffered far worse than benchmark prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron, for instance, lost more than 10 percent over the two trading days, and Barclays issued a double downgrade to the credit rating for ExxonMobil, moving it from Overweight to Underweight. Those losses were made much worse by the disappointing fourth-quarter earnings reports from the oil majors. The S&P 500 energy sector lost 4.4. percent on Monday, and fell by 8.3 percent over a two-day period.

The danger is that the unraveling of oil prices is just getting started. Hedge funds and other money managers have built up record net-long bets on oil futures, a run-up that only started to fall back a bit recently. Last week was the first time in six weeks that investors cut their bullish exposure, a sign that the bull run for WTI and Brent started to face resistance.

However, the reduction in net-long positioning was relatively minor and it preceded the sudden volatility that hit the entire financial system last Friday. The risk for oil prices was that without the constant drip of bullish news, investors would have unwound their bullish bets. That danger existed before the latest market turmoil, but with a broader market meltdown underway, the risk for a selloff in oil prices is heightened.
Related: Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil

“The rise in risk aversion that this expresses is prompting speculative financial investors to get out of their crude oil forward contracts,” Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday. “Speculative net long positions in Brent and WTI were at or close to a record level in the last reporting week, meaning that there was correction potential here.”

[frazboy] 07/2/2018 07:26

Agreed,and although the Kenyan phased development strategy seems eminently sensible, that 2C number is a bit below where I would like it to be

[0rient] 07/2/2018 07:11

Great set of results...certainly beat my expectations and very upbeat forward statement 👍🏻👍🏻

[xxnjr1] 07/2/2018 01:12

EIA now forecasting US Crude Production to average 10.6M bopd for 2018. Thats an extra 300K bopd above previous forecast. 2019 average 11.2M bopd (+350K).



At the same time, the agency said it is looking for global oil prices to moderate, with a barrel of Brent, the international benchmark, expected to be in the $62 a barrel range over this year and next. That would be lower than current levels “as strong US production growth is expected to help moderate global prices.

[xxnjr1] 06/2/2018 23:56

:)

There's an interesting article in Africa Energy Intelligence, headlined

Uganda - The two giants (Total and CNOOC) each have their eyes on this key area that Tullow Oil has been trying to sell for nearly a year.....

I haven't read it as owing to my reduced circumstances following the drop in TLW share price I could no longer afford the 5 euros to open it ;-)

but it implies Tullow have been trying to flog their residual Uganda holding for the past year without success and I suppose there's a flicker of a suggestion that Total and CNOOC might be interested. I guess it's kind of hard for Tullow to completely exit Uganda as the local Tax Authorities will slap them with an exorbitant tax demand. Hence the way the existing farm down was structured.

No point in Total and CNOOC getting into a bidding war over this, assuming both wanted it, as both hold pre-emption rights anyway.

Maybe one of the analysts will ask about Uganda and/or Kenya exit strategy on the webcast.

[frazboy] 06/2/2018 22:18

Anadarko heads up on Q4 production here:



TEN above expectation and Jubilee below, so they balance out

Kenya... waiting for tomorrows news but not expecting anything material

Dow up :)

[leoneobull] 06/2/2018 18:53

It is not rocket science. Poo spiked so did tlw. Then it fell back. Maybe nervousness ahead of results given they coincide with market malaise

[romeike] 06/2/2018 16:21

That sharp rebound was gone within an hour. Lower to go.

[leoneobull] 06/2/2018 15:56

Be my guest :-)

[frazboy] 06/2/2018 15:22

Leonobull, i was going to make some off topic-ish remarks about the apparent contradiction in the WoodMac and Goldman Sachs views on oil prices and shale supply. Can I post this?

Wood Mac have shale supply increasing sharply over the next few years leading to rising stocks, and subdued prices, before, eventually, geology causes trouble, even in the powerhouse of the shale industry - the Permian, thus resulting in long term supply shortages. Goldman on the other hand see shale supply, plus supply from Canada, Brazil etc, failing to keep up with demand over the next year, thus leading to a surge in short term prices, before shale catches up come 2020 or so, and supply/demand get back in balance, leading to $60ish oil prices. Although I've not seen any of the publications/presentations by either of these companies, I'm amazed at the almost diametrically opposite, apparent, stances. Having spent a few hours looking through the Permian data last night, I have no trouble seeing a 1 million barrel increase in supply from that region in 2018 - the issues are simply getting hold of labour, rigs, frac rigs and infrastructure, etc.

Anyway, it's difficult being a PI sometimes, and having to make a call on this, plus deal with gung-ho Dow, which is dragging us down, but didn't exactly pull us up!

[xxnjr1] 06/2/2018 14:47

Spike up correlates to movements on the Dow since it opened - but I'll stop going on about it!

[mcsean2164] 06/2/2018 14:41

Wow, that's a sharp rebound!

[leoneobull] 06/2/2018 14:06

Xx ur a bit overfocused on the Dow when tlw should be announcing good results tomorrow. Look at BP'S today.

[xxnjr1] 06/2/2018 13:16

The Dow opens in about 75 mins. I guess the real fun and games will be in the lead up to Dow opening and how it behaves subsequently.

[romeike] 06/2/2018 12:47

Tullow holding up decently well. Don't fight the oil trend - this Trump created noise was fully expected and likely end up with the DOW much closer to election night levels but then stocks can recover at a more sensible pace.

[mercer95] 06/2/2018 11:46

Is it just me or is the coverage on Bloomberg & Squawk box over egging it a bit this morning, I guess they got to milk it, yesterday was crazy, ballastic, my iPad went into meltdown so I put it in the fridge, I’m still long, that old market was getting boring. GLA

[mariopeter] 06/2/2018 09:34

That is the taster for October when traditionally the inflation figure in the US takes a nudge up. I feel safe for now as the US 10 yield is 2.65%. edited.

[leoneobull] 06/2/2018 08:10

Notice that brent isn't faring too badly 67.15

[leoneobull] 05/2/2018 22:05

The financial sector was the biggest loser, tanking 5%, followed by health care, industrials, energy, telecommunications, and information technology which all fell more than 4%.