Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mariopeter] 28/2/2018 17:45

US "Production averaged 9.4 million bpd in the week to February 23, down from 10.1 million bpd a week earlier"

a fall of 700,000 bpd .

[fuji99] 28/2/2018 13:50

Oil is up today in any case. The lower inventories will confirm the need for more oil this winter in the biggest consuming economies in the world - From Japan, China to Europe and the US where winter is one of the harshest for some years.

[mcsean2164] 28/2/2018 13:50

I wouldn't be surprised it was bots bots reacting to a director sell...

[xxnjr1] 28/2/2018 10:51

Tullow doesn't have a differentiating narrative at the moment - so it's just being tossed around by perceptions about direction of US interest rates, dollar, OP etc.

[fuji99] 28/2/2018 10:19

With such a long cold spell in the northern hemisphere, energy and oil in particular should be in great demand. I see this blue the afternoon following inventories in the US.

[alfiex] 28/2/2018 09:38

Manipulatef

[mcsean2164] 28/2/2018 09:27

Flattened again, is it the director dealings?

[billy_buffin] 27/2/2018 14:29

The role of undertaking seismic surveys, exploratory drilling and other activities that lead up to oil discoveries will now be handled by Delonex Energy, also headquartered in the UK.

[xxnjr1] 27/2/2018 10:21

Some snippets from Kosmos Q4 call yesterday.

First phase of Jubilee Turret Remediation Plan completed - Jubilee now back on line. 2nd shutdown will commence end of Q1 (nothing new) with about 4 wks total down time for both phases. Final phase around year end with minimal impact on 2018 production. So overall in my view, thats a win for 2018 production guidance.

There's been a change to the drilling schedule in Ghana:-

Rig operations are expected to start imminently with the Maersk Venturer drillship. The initial program is sequenced to drill one producer at TEN to one producer at Jubilee and then completion operations will begin at Jubilee.

[previously drill 3, then complete 3 - revised plan advances production by 30 days]

For the year we plan to drill and complete four wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields. A second rig is under evaluation by the partnership and would commence operations later in 2018. This reflects the significant value-adding opportunity that exists in both fields. Maybe 2nd Ghana rig could be Ocean Rig Poseidon, if go for 2 rigs?

On Ceiba/Okume (TLW 14.25%) new operator Kosmos have optimised gas lift increasing gross from 37K to 43K bopd. Later in 2018/19 Kosmos will be converting 6 wells from gas lift to ESP which will boost output further.

My take from this is that 2018Y TLW production guidance, which was conservative anyway, now looks to be very conservative.

[jimarilo] 26/2/2018 20:39

Offshore drilling contractor Ocean Rig has signed a new drilling contract with Tullow Namibia for a one-well drilling program plus options for drilling offshore West Africa.

[lullabite] 26/2/2018 16:43

Someone knows tullow nav per share with these current oil prices ??

[cheek212] 26/2/2018 16:22

Further reduction in shorts today - given the share price action again today, it wouldn't surprise me if further shorters closing today and using BOTS to keep the price steady whilst they buy back. Easy to do whilst low volumes.

[xxnjr1] 26/2/2018 12:02

I see from Upstream that

"Total, Tullow ‘near South Sudan blocks deal’ French giant and independent set to soon be joined by Kuwaiti player in pair of tracts, country’s minister says.....

If this were to happen (never trust what a country minister says!) it would be good news as it confirms Total do have an end game for Kenya that also envisages moving South Sudan oil through a pipeline to Lamu. That would enhance the project economics of building the pipeline, lessing the risk that Kenya could become a stranded asset.

[mariopeter] 24/2/2018 10:53

The last two weeks were a warning that US inflation (PPI)is moving in the grave. That would spell higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar which alone affects the oil price.

Markets also feared that inflation and higher US interest rates might cause a recession with lower oil demand everywhere. Oil demand is fairly inelastic but 100,000 barrels a day plus or minus, in supply or demand, is swinging the oil price around these days.

Cyclically US inflation is stronger in the second half of any given year and historically it peaks in October (Yikes!)and after the last couple of weeks markets are going to have a cyclops eye on the chap in the grave;how will he react to all the steroids that have been injected in him for the last 10 years? David Banner or the green guy? The Vix could well be busy.

[frazboy] 24/2/2018 09:45

This one:



It's difficult to know what has really changed in the last few weeks since oil went from $71 to £63 and back to $67 ish. Was it all to do with the market correction (not obvious there should have been any impact on oil price - demand is not closely correlated to short term DJ/Nasdaq movements), or, were people worrying about the rapid US production ramp up (which I think was mainly GoM...) and the rapid ramp up in shale rigs, particularly in the Permian, and fearing the bust was here once again? Notably the rig count has stabalised after a busy week (+20 rigs in 1 week in late Jan) or so.

I'll stick with $65 for my forecasts for now.

[mcsean2164] 24/2/2018 02:44

Which Goldman view is that?

[frazboy] 23/2/2018 20:14

do you think they're shipping the Canadian rigs to the Permian? I did read of such a few weeks ago, and, remarkably, shipping rigs from Saudi.

the Goldman Sachs view of Oil Prices is starting to look a bit more credible.

[mariopeter] 23/2/2018 18:15

Tullow seems to be running with better correlation to the oil price now.

Canadian rig count down 12 and US rig count up 3. Baker Hughes tonight.

Canadian oil market in a terrible state as they cant get the stuff out of there fast enough. Oil is $30 ish a barrel in Canada and insolvencies probably loom.

US infrastructure keeping weekly production in the States at a level that is not enough to cover new oil growth in the world. Saudis have the oil market snookered.... tick tock.

[leoneobull] 23/2/2018 06:17

Weekly Oil Storage Report - Just A Matter Of Time seeking alpha Feb. 22, 2018 6:36 PMSummaryEIA reported another bullish oil storage report this week.We saw US crude storage decline 1.616 million bbls versus our estimate for +0.51 million bbls.The difference was largely explained by US crude exports coming in above 2 million b/d.We are forecasting for crude storage to reach the 5-year average by March 9.The physical market is also signaling price weakness is largely over with Brent prices supported aroundWell, it's getting boring to say this over and over again, but EIA reported "another" bullish oil storage reportUS crude storage dropped 1.616 million bbls, versus our estimate last week for a build of 0.51 million bbls. The difference came in much stronger US crude exports, which we will explain shortly below.Cushing, once again, saw storage decline by 2.664 million bbls to ~30 million bbls. The operational minimum is around ~15 million bbls, and if the draw persists, we will be at that level in less than 6 weeks.Gasoline storage saw a small build of 261k bbls, versus the 5-year average draw of 1.391 million bbls.Distillate storage saw a draw of 2.422 million bbls, versus the 5-year average draw of 2.603 million bbls.Total liquid stockpile declined 7.92 million bbls, versus the 5-year average draw of 3.448 million bbls.This week saw crude imports plummet w-o-w, from 7.888 million b/d to 7.021 million b/d. We wrote last week that we expected imports around 7.1 million b/d, and the seasonal drop happened again last week.US crude exports, on the other hand, were massively higher w-o-w to 2.044 million b/d, explaining the difference between our crude storage estimate and what EIA reported. The reported increase in crude exports could have been a timing issue, according to some of the traders we've discussed this with. The tanker tracking firms showed the tanker leave on Sunday, but EIA reported crude exports for February 16. That was also likely why the adjustment factor flipped from -352k b/d to +256k b/d.On the US oil production side, the weekly US oil production came in at 10.27 million b/d, versus 10.271 million b/d last week. Lower 48 production grew 10k b/d, while Alaska declined 11k b/d. Trued up US oil production this week (weekly oil production + adjustment) came in at 10.526 million b/d, up 608k b/d from last week. Trued up US oil production for February is tracking 10.223 million b/d (more below).We also saw SPR release 693k bbls this week.Overall, EIA reported another bullish storage report this week. We are expecting to see builds for next week's oil storage report. But the bullish relative storage changes continue and in line with our thesis that Q1 2018 will show very bullish storage reports. It's now just a matter of time before we hit the 5-year average, and lower throughout this year.

[carbon man] 22/2/2018 17:15

uen_2

You are filtered, back to your bridge, your a misguided Bull Troll.

Go away and don't reappear.

[alfiex] 22/2/2018 16:24

So has poo

[cheek212] 22/2/2018 16:24

Suddenly sprung into action! About time.

[uen_investor2] 22/2/2018 11:43

Dont miss UEN, off again up another 6.4%, no more than 5,000 shares avaliable online.. They are already asking the full amount again to be filled

At 13m quid its hard to see a downside.

3 - 4 million shares available to the market. This on its own means there is very little available for large chunks. No warrants, no dilution

This will keep rising,

Here is why.

This ticks every box:
Excellent revenue.
Rejected takeover at 250p per share
Debt wiped shortly
Dividend. (5p per share paid in November)
Proved reserves.
2200 bopd production.
Bod have plenty of skin in the game.
Cpr due.
Drilling underway on high cos prospect.
Very small free float of shares.
Few shares in issue.
Well underpinned at a mcap far exceeding what we're currently at.
Exponential upside.
Not on the radar....YET!
Fabulous entry point
Own their own refinery - 30 million US conservative valuation on its own
UEN oil sold at a PREMIUM to brent


Worth reading this over and over again..

hxxp://www.uralsenergy.com/archive/presentations/Urals_Inv_Presentation_20_11_2017.pdf?v=231117

Urals remains one of the highest ranked E&P companies (4th) on the AIM market by 2P Reserves
Russian 2P Reserves volumes dominate the AIM E&P sector and continue to trade at a significant discount
to the market average
Urals generates more operating cash flow per barrel produced than its AIM listed peers
Urals 2P Reserves trade at a discount to the market and its regional Russian and FSU peer groups
Urals have continued to outperform its Russian peer group during 2017

[xxnjr1] 22/2/2018 11:24

Jimarilo - just had a look. Those *Chariot blocks/prospects for farm out look to be in more or less same water depth (or play fairway) as Exxon seem to be gunning for.

*Edit: Brain fade - I meant Global Petroleum blocks!