Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr1] 09/2/2018 13:40

Red actually! But I've just added a few.

Off course the macro is awful at the moment.

However Total are now driving affairs in Uganda and I think they have both the nouse and the clout to drive things forward, so I'm actually beginning to believe the project will get sanctioned some time this year.

Kenya is a bit more problematic. We've already heard Tullow's vision of how things should progress, but have no idea whether Total are on board. Alignment is important. I kind of feel Total may have a different vision. We'll just have to wait and see if Total are (i) believers in Kenya and (ii) if yes, what moves they make to get control of the project.

[alfiex] 09/2/2018 13:27

1.70 close of play?

[leoneobull] 09/2/2018 08:02

Blue! Hallelujah

[mcsean2164] 09/2/2018 00:15

dividend would keep shorters away.

[romeike] 08/2/2018 21:45

What matters is the overall return, a dividend can be a welcome part of that. Plenty of "growth" companies also manage to pay out a decent dividend. It also increases the quality of the shareholder base. For this year I would prefer them to focus purely on growing the market cap. Next year, if there is cash to spare a dividend might be a nice extra.

[rationaleee] 08/2/2018 19:57

Why has TLW started talking about making a decision on paying dividends by end 2018? Who wants dividend, its a growth stock not an income one! Have they not heard of buying back shares! They should think about buying the stock back that they placed at a 50% discount not so long ago. TLW should also buy back the convertible debt and reduce the CBH arbitrage activity, not that its a big part of the equity strucutre but still it would reduce shorts and the debt! Common Paul, please no dividends!

[carbon man] 08/2/2018 18:22

TLW has come down in the last couple of weeks on market forces and investor sentiment. Yes we have had a choppy week, but the media and treasury leaks, do not help. The media is there to report the news not to sensationalise. More than ever we need to pull together through these current times and not to be distracted by rumours and 'leaks'. With regard to this stock, I suggest that if one studies the charts, there is room for improvement on the current share price in the short/medium term
OIMHO

[fuji99] 08/2/2018 13:03

The great thing about TLW is that all signs are showing that management know exactly what they want and what are their targets. This is now going from improvement to improvement quarter by quarter, meaning that share price wise, it will reach new highs never hit in the last 3 years.
I expect a positive reporting in the papers next week too.

[mariopeter] 08/2/2018 12:35

The oil bears had a good round in the ring but the bulls are still in control. If not the Saudis will help

[mcsean2164] 08/2/2018 11:51

Have to admit, I'm horrified with the current SP, where would TLW be if POO were back below $50 like last July. I'm finding this very frustrating as I'm looking at buying another house and need to liquidate all investments soon!

Is Kenya that bad? Do we really deserve to be trading at 180P?

[lullabite] 08/2/2018 11:39

Im adding , i think we are really cheap right now price doesnt make any sense to me

[fuji99] 08/2/2018 10:32

A great and well run company to hold for the long term.
For the last year or two only good news is released so confident things will get better and better with TLW. Holding a good amount for a while now.

[fuji99] 08/2/2018 10:31

A great and well run company to hold for the long term.
For the last year or two only good news is released so confident things will get better and better with TLW. Holding a good amount for a while now.

[frazboy] 08/2/2018 10:12

some truth in that Midas, particularly in the early days, production does drop off rapidly, but then the decline is much more graceful, which is why US onshore didn't drop off massively when the oil price crashed.

xxnjr - I'll message you about one or two bits and pieces when I get time.

[midasx] 08/2/2018 07:44

Yes unfortunately for the shale producers the quick depletion rate means a drill last about ten minutes before a new drill is required. That is why the majority of shale producers are up to their necks in debt and not making much profit.

[xxnjr1] 07/2/2018 21:42

WRT to shale. $2m seems a bit low. And 6000 feet a bit short. The game seems to have moved on to 10,000ft or even 15000ft laterals. I haven't studied AOI's slides yet but I'd be pleasantly surprised if you could drill a well in East Africa (once up to speed in manufacturing mode) for anything like the low costs achieved in the US of A.

[xxnjr1] 07/2/2018 21:29

Thanks so much for that frazboy. Quite a lot to take in there. The first thing that stands out is that today AOI announced they've taken a 25.2% equity interest in Impact Oil and Gas, a company that rates high in my perception, with an interesting portfolio of leads in South Africa and elsewhere. Then AOI have 28% interest in sister Lundin Group company AEC, as well as about 20% of ECO. Net result a very interesting portfolio of offshore blocks and up-coming wells. Keith Hill and the Lundins are a pretty savvy bunch. Looks like they've rolled the dice again and have come up with some interesting numbers. Will take another look at AOI, an old friend.

[frazboy] 07/2/2018 19:50

for the analysts on the board, a bit more info on Kenya from the other side of the Pacific:



It'll be impressive if they managed to drill those wells for that kind of price even when they're shallow, due to the location, and as they'll be coming from the same well pad, they will have to be deviated (very high angle?). Not sure how that compares with the typical shale well these days, perhaps $2m to $4m (albeit they have 6000 ft horizontal sections).

[romeike] 07/2/2018 17:25

Would have been nice to see the +6% hold into the close but some punters love to sell down quick. This will be back at 250p in short order once oil trend gets back on to the right track. Next step - pre-election oil sanctions on Venezuela and Maduro getting laughed out of OPEC after his "petros" presentation.

[mccracken227] 07/2/2018 16:44

Down 9p from days high :-( good job results were decent or would have ended red!!!

[duckdown] 07/2/2018 15:41

I've mentioned it on a couple of other boards but have a look at I3E if you haven't already.

Directors behind Ithaca - tiny market cap and starting production this year.

100% owner of Liberator field which was valued highly when discovered by Dana when oil was $100+ but I3E picked it up for next to nothing and are looking to be fully funded whilst retaining 67%+.

[duckdown] 07/2/2018 15:35

EIA build but smaller than forecast.

[spirito] 07/2/2018 15:17

sorry fat finger typing on phone

[spirito] 07/2/2018 15:17

the managed this yeats results with much lower oil. if it continues above 60 as the tear goes on tlw will only rise.