Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 03/9/2015 15:01

Iran's infrastructure is in a pretty poor state "gearing up" could take quite a while I would suggest.

[azalea] 03/9/2015 13:25

With it now a virtual certainty that the US will lift sanctions which have previously stopped Iran from selling oil to the West, the former must be gearing up to produce more oil for selling on the open market.

[gregpeck7] 03/9/2015 09:04

Oil looks like its trying to push higher

[holmess] 02/9/2015 14:16

Interesting posts EdmondJ

WTI futures have just moved into positive territory........

[edmondj] 02/9/2015 09:42

He hasn't always been right though:

So far the biggest loser of the commodities dump is BlueGold Capital Management.

Pierre Andurand's $2.4 billion fund lost 20% last week, or $500 million, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The losses are rough (his are the worst yet. Clive Capital lost $400 million.) but Andurand plans to ride it out. He is staying bullish on crude, predicting that oil will hit $180 per barrel.

hxxp://www.businessinsider.com/bluegold-loses-500-million-20-percent-commodities-pierre-andurand-2011-5?IR=T

[edmondj] 02/9/2015 09:30

One of the biggest bears in the oil market has not been swayed by the snap rally that pushed the crude price up by more than 25 per cent in just three trading sessions.

Pierre Andurand, the hedge fund manager who returned 51 per cent before fees last year by betting against the oil price, told the Financial Times that the market had overreacted to signs of slowing US crude production and comments by Opec. He believes prices will head lower again, possibly dropping below $30 a barrel.

“The market will remain oversupplied in 2016 and 2017,” said Mr Andurand, who predicted the 2008 oil spike and subsequent crash. “We need low prices for longer to rebalance the market. There are no quick fixes.”

His hedge fund, Andurand Capital, is up 10.3 per cent before fees so far this year — 6.5 per cent after fees — and rose 2.5 per cent in August, despite the 27 per cent price oil rally between Thursday and Monday. That spike moved both Brent and US crude into positive territory for the month, closing August at $54.15 a barrel and $49.20 respectively.

Oil prices reversed course again on Tuesday, with both contracts dropping almost 8 per cent by mid-afternoon London time, with a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector refocusing traders on slowing economic growth in the world’s largest commodity importer. Brent dipped back below $50.

Mr Andurand said there was “nothing new” in comments on Monday from Opec, the oil producing cartel, which some traders had interpreted as indicating the group wanted to co-ordinate with other producers to raise prices. Equally, a new survey from the US Energy Information Administration showing US output fell between April and June should not have been a surprise, he said.

“It was well expected by us and other market participants that US production peaked in April and has been declining,” Mr Andurand said.

“[But] we don’t expect US production to go down much further, maybe another 200,000 b/d relative to today. That’s not going to be enough to rebalance the market so there needs to be supply cuts from other countries.”

Operating out of an office in London’s Knightsbridge, dominated by two giant tropical fish tanks alongside the usual banks of multi-screened trading terminals, the French-born fund manager said recent volatility in oil was attracting more investors.

The fund manager, located opposite Harrods, the department store famous for attracting a different kind of oil wealth, has assets under management of around $575m — a near 50 per cent increase since January — driven by new investor cash and positive returns so far in 2015.

While Mr Andurand has always bet on big oil market trends since first making his name at hedge fund Blue Gold in 2008, his present operation remained nimble enough to be able to pare back positions when the market turned suddenly, he said.

He said while oil companies were slashing capital expenditure, the long lead times on most projects meant the impact would not be felt on supplies in the market until around 2019. As such, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate could fall as low as $25 a barrel for up to a month this year, he said — a $20 fall from levels on Tuesday.

“I would expect the range for WTI to be $25-$50 over the next two years.

“If we stay at almost $50 WTI I think US production will grow again relatively strongly.”

[olieslim] 02/9/2015 00:04

Interesting observations today, bobsidian. Thx

[spacedust] 01/9/2015 11:49

What time is the USA data out today

[bobsidian] 01/9/2015 11:06

<<Bang head on desk mode>>

"You're confusing company specific micro situations with the the global macro picture."

You choose to make your macro point on a company specific bulletin board. And then you suggest there is some confusion about the point you are making relative to the fate and fortune of oil companies.

The two issues are intertwined ; macro plays out in micro settings. They are not unrelated. Take a look at the most recent percentage recovery in the share price of TLW and contrast that with the percentage recovery in the price of oil.

Nevertheless, as others have pointed out, market forces were happy to push the share price of TLW down at a rate of gearing of around 1.5 x movement in the price of oil but are only prepared to allow a share price recovery at around 1 x movement in the price of oil. Typical sector bear market behaviour.

[holmess] 01/9/2015 11:02

<<Bang head on desk mode>>

"It was the speed of move in the collapse of the price of oil which ultimately caused AFR to fall into administration. They are not unrelated events."

You don't say bob ;)

But buying AFR has NOTHING to do with my point about the oil price.

[dlku] 01/9/2015 10:59

how long before bids in the sector

[bobsidian] 01/9/2015 08:50

Of course there is no confusion.

"Picking the wrong investment, AFR, is not the same as getting the wrong side of the oil price."

How do you think oil companies generate revenues ?

It was the speed of move in the collapse of the price of oil which ultimately caused AFR to fall into administration. They are not unrelated events.

[holmess] 01/9/2015 08:36

Yes there is.

My comment "It was always going to be the case." relates to the oil price. You are talking company specifics. Picking the wrong investment, AFR, is not the same as getting the wrong side of the oil price.

[bobsidian] 01/9/2015 08:31

There is no confusion.

Unless you shield your investment strategy by investing in ETFs, company specific situations are what equity markets are all about. You pick the right company and trade/invest in the right direction, the returns can be far greater than trading/investing in composite vehicles.

[gregpeck7] 01/9/2015 08:31

In only July this was 350p, oil seems to be recovering...

This could be 300p minimum pretty quick if oil holds over 50

Markets always go too far both ways, and they have gone too far here..

[holmess] 01/9/2015 08:22

You're confusing company specific micro situations with the the global macro picture. Picking individual winners requires analysis of their own specific value proposition. I'm talking about the big picture, and the fact that prices have overshot to the downside.

[holmess] 01/9/2015 07:17

Russia, Venezuela to Discuss Potential Steps to Stabilize Oil Prices

MOSCOW—Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss “possible mutual steps” to stabilize the global price for oil at a meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in China on Thursday, a Kremlin aide said, as both countries grapple with lower prices for their main export.

[holmess] 01/9/2015 05:29

bobsidian - It was always going to be the case. I've seen this game, and it really is a game, play out time and time again on various markets over the years. They drive it down, they drive it back up again. the smart money leads the herd, gets them thinking it's a one way bet and then spikes it the other way.

As I mentioned last week ,a BB full of bears calling the price down when it was already oversold and Armageddon priced in was always a strong contra-indicator. Just look at this headline from the this WSJ this morning!

Oil Prices Soar Amid Lower U.S. Output Estimates, OPEC Article
U.S. and global benchmarks enter bull markets as OPEC says it ‘stands ready to talk to all other producers’
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Updated Aug. 31, 2015 7:35 p.m. ET
Oil prices soared Monday, marking their strongest three-day rally since Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, on doubts the global glut of crude would be as long-lasting as many investors and traders had earlier believed........

Watch the UK market scramble this morning ;)

hxxp://quotes.wsj.com/futures/CRUDE%20OIL%20-%20ELECTRONIC

[bobsidian] 01/9/2015 03:30

What is the betting on the price of oil finding a way to zigzag higher whilst the financial media continues to fixate on the oversupply concerns.

It has been interesting to note the reaction to an article in a relatively minor publication suggesting movement by OPEC to reach an accord with non-OPEC nations on the matter of oversupply. Discredited in an instant by market commentators ; leapt on by market forces seeking to price in the future.

Could the recent sell off in equity markets be the cover for another major sector rotation move ? Yes, a higher oil price can encourage new supply and impact end demand. But that encourages price volatility.
The oil sector may not be a one way bet any more.

[spacedust] 31/8/2015 21:09

I would not be surprised if they go up but then end up red on the day even of oil goes up - these days markets act insanely

[yeah man] 31/8/2015 20:36

Have a look at the business BBC, and u will see why.

[holmess] 31/8/2015 19:42

Currently up 7% - if that holds overnight tlw will open around 240p imo

[spacedust] 31/8/2015 19:41

Oil is up seven per cent