Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 14/1/2021 07:12

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STRONG PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

Tritax Big Box REIT plc (the Company) today announces an update on its valuation ahead of its full year results for the twelve months to 31 December 2020, which are due to be published on Wednesday, 10 March 2021. All figures disclosed in this announcement are unaudited.

UK large-scale logistics real estate market has significantly strengthened

The second half of 2020 saw a significant increase in the value of prime, larger scale, UK logistics real estate assets let to high calibre occupiers on long leases. The supply of these prime assets remains constrained and occupier demand for larger scale logistics buildings continues to strengthen. When combined with a buoyant investment market, this is driving tighter pricing in transactions, accelerating yield compression and increasing valuations for prime assets both in the broader logistics real estate market and in our own high-quality investment and development portfolio.

Portfolio valuation ahead of market expectations

The independent valuation of our portfolio's investment and development assets (1) as at 31 December 2020 indicates a like-for-like increase in value of approximately 8% since 30 June 2020. This has been driven by the strength of the logistics real estate market, our active development and asset management activity, alongside the high-quality nature of our portfolio as demonstrated through consistently high levels of rent collection.

As a result, we expect our 31 December 2020 EPRA NTA per share to have increased materially since the half year (30 June 2020: 154.85 pence per share) and to exceed the upper end of current analysts' estimates (2) .

The Company will publish its Q4 2020 trading update on Thursday, 28 January 2021.

(1) Excludes land and land options.
(2) Based upon a Company compiled consensus, the current range of nine sell side analysts' estimates for EPRA NTA per share at 31 December 2020 is 152 pence to 166 pence, with an average of 159 pence.

[solooiler] 30/12/2020 15:51

breaking out. just brilliant!

[skinny] 29/12/2020 14:08

That was my thinking now that thigs are 'clearer'.

Probably repeating myself, but I also hold SHED,WHR,RGL,AEWU,AIRE & LXI.

[williamcooper104] 29/12/2020 14:02

I've got some EBOX and ASLI too - they don't seem to have much development pipeline which is unfortunate European logistics are behind U.K. in terms of market penetration so there ought to be more rental growth

[skinny] 29/12/2020 12:37

I've ignored EBOX as I have lots of 'Box' shares - perhaps time to re-evaluate?

[williamcooper104] 29/12/2020 11:43

It is - we've been robbed by equity beta - so good to get it back at end of year

[rathlindri] 29/12/2020 11:30

Super rise today, and a nice way to end a difficult year

[williamcooper104] 17/12/2020 18:05

And of course - PHNX has a fat and relatively safe divi yield

[williamcooper104] 17/12/2020 18:05

I've a full holding in PHNX too I see PHNX is a bit of an interest rate hedge to BBOX - in that if rates rise materially even if inflation rises too, we are likely to see value declines in BBOX as current yields are very low and the leases almost all have inflation caps of 3 percent Whereas higher rates increases the pension transfer market and reduces the longevity risk on existing annuity assets

[skinny] 17/12/2020 15:29

Isn't it just!

These are now my second biggest holding by value, behind PHNX.

[williamcooper104] 17/12/2020 15:26

Tritax is out fund raising with Delaney for a £1bn retail park fund They are focusing on omni-channel retail units - eg warehouses with a shop front attached Targeting 15 IRRs Shame we can't get exposure to this

[speedsgh] 17/12/2020 11:11

Tritax Symmetry agrees lease with Ocado on the last available speculatively developed facility within the Tritax Big Box portfolio - hxxp://www.commercialnewsmedia.com/archives/107571

[eagleblue1] 17/12/2020 10:55

Hey scruff - no worries at all and hope my questioning didn't seem to direct! Totally get you with giving away control - I'm hopeful that ASI does stick to its word and Tritax remains effectively autonomous and works as a de facto independent company under the ASI umbrella. Hopefully with a Brexit deal signed and sealed within a few days and more financing available we can really push on here both in dividend and share price terms - movement seems positive so far.

[petewy] 16/12/2020 12:17

Thanks Rath

[skinny] 16/12/2020 11:45

Thanks for the link.

[rathlindri] 16/12/2020 10:07

hxxps://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news/aberdeen-standard-investments-buys-majority-stake-in-5bn-real-estate-manager/

[scruff1] 14/12/2020 20:59

Was reading the H1 presentation again yesterday. Apart from the current ongoing constructions and those future developments already identified it seems upbeat about the potential for future developments as yet unidentified. I wondered whether the tie up with ASI has anything to with funding such.

[geko5trade] 14/12/2020 12:02

I would have thought that whichever way the deal is cut demand for warehousing will increase and I'm not concerned about that side of the business model. No doubt sterling can come under further pressure. Perhaps an absolute floor of parity with the dollar on a no deal? At some point there must be the risk of inflation though I've not read a convincing argument as to when. WC has a more sophisticated grasp but I doubt he'd stick his neck out on a timeline. Maybe he'll take up the challenge!

[dhoult12] 14/12/2020 11:39

On a side note, is the up and downs with the no-deal BREXIT on this purely that its UK based assets, so shift capital anywhere else?

Probably missing something but in the event of no deal my expectation was demand for warehousing would increase significantly with supermarkets, amazon etc having to store more than just their normal 'just in time' deliveries to keep the shelves stocked with all the potential port delays.

[scruff1] 11/12/2020 08:42

Maybe if the directors use some of the cash to increase their holdings it may settle a few nerves

[scruff1] 11/12/2020 08:25

eagle
I understand your points and funnily enough I agree with them and hope that they are the dominant drivers. My pessimism is more gut feeling driven by past experiences. The management have given away full control to a third party (they claim they haven't - lets hope thats not tested). They didnt need to do that - there wasnt a liquidity problem. Granted it gives them more cash so if there was a plan should we expect a a good use of that cash to be imminent? If not was it worth the selling of full control?
Could turn out to be a good move? Maybe not. Its this issue that makes me pessimistic and dropping to a two month low after an all time high (and still falling) doesnt help and obviously Im not alone. A large part is confidence and there aint much of it about. Maybe a part of it is the fact that the co. didnt really make any great attempt to outline the merger as part of any real strategy. Really hope you are right and I am being a nob :-)

[eagleblue1] 10/12/2020 14:15

Cheers smidge - more directed at scruff but I get your point.

[williamcooper104] 10/12/2020 12:11

Big risk is long term gilts blowing up - we've only got limited inflation protection as the RPI caps kick in at 3 percent (used to be standard for caps in leases to be 5 percent)Inflation protection is good for sterling assets as it mitigates fall in currency So far gilts have traded in - so we are getting benefit of lower rates and higher expected inflation - eg more negative real rates Worst thing about BBOX is that's it's ££ assets

[smidge21] 10/12/2020 12:01

Hi, I haven't particularly thought about it falling; just flat-lining/ underperforming. Logistics assets are well bid - especially if ASI are going to direct more capital and management dis-incentivised relative to before. Yes I could clip the 'coupon' but it isn't particularly fancy. Surely better opportunities elsewhere ?