Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 11/2/2020 23:45

Sorry
Baan = Baan

[nocents] 11/2/2020 23:42

Yes shame.
There were over 36 companies there...some quite exciting and up and coming ones.
It was a big event in Islington.
Shame that Trinity were not there.
To be honest PR -when it happens-is not going well. Private investors are fickle and fleeting. As we see here. But where are the institutions? They need to see a future in a growing business.
The business plan may be about production growth and cash growth to be reinvested...but the shareholder will always be at the bottom of the pile if the wares are not advertised and new investors not magnetized onboard. It is disappointing to see the Newlands depart. Still selling today I believe. Why?
Trinity needs to put on a coat of many colours and advertise itself. Walbrook are the PR company. Daily Mail last year. Investors Chronicle several times. Why not Shares Magazine...Telegraph...Sunday Times sall caps. Why hide in the shadows??? I’ll do the PR for them. I’ll phone and email the papers. Honest!!
Trinity is such a tight ship !!!
Why is it so consistently and inescapably underrated ??
I know the China problem is suppressing oil but Trin was 8.7p well before that!! All time low since refinancing in spite of no CLN’s / no govt. debt/no secured or unsecured bank debt/.
Yet all time low
Increasing production matters.Increasing cash when possible matters.
But it does not increase the share price nor retain investors evidently.
What’s missing? Can’t blame SPT/WTI .
Got to 27p in 2018 with big debt and oil in fifties.
What’s missing? Is it because we don’t know what the plan is???
Rolling out Scada. Maybe another Haw ( but why at 50 dollars?)TGAL pointless at $50 WTI.
So what’s the plan Baan?
Answers on a postcard.
Or suggestions here if anyone has any or corrects me ( happy to be).

[princebuster2] 11/2/2020 21:45

Monty Pythons parrot sketch..except insert the word Trinity instead of parrot

[slicethepie] 11/2/2020 21:35

Pa- I totally share your views on how undervalued trin is however I do think every opportunity to meet potential investors needs to be taken. Currently many small cap cos are under pressure across the piece as a result of redemptions eg miton and the fallout from Woodford. It only takes 1 or 2 new investors to take up the slack. The sold out event cenkos organised today would have an excellent opportunity.

[slicethepie] 11/2/2020 17:56

I note 1 of our 4 advisors (cenkos) had a growth and innovation event in London with circa 30 companies attending. WHY weren't you there Bruce ? You might find some new shareholders to soak up the selling.

[nocents] 10/2/2020 21:40

I apologize btw if I have been overwhelmingly negative of late. It may be all valid or some may not. Hard to know.
Best wishes to all med-long term holders.

[oilinvestoral] 10/2/2020 18:40

Totally agree about SPT! If they reform SPT this can do a TXP rise in a matter of days or weeks! SPT makes investment in drilling ops very difficult as you say ...

[nocents] 10/2/2020 17:35

And the books are balanced. Strong balance sheet. Nil debt. Not sure about the growing production and cash any more.

[nocents] 10/2/2020 17:33

My suspicion is that they only released the TR1 on emptying their cpffers. You can get away with not releasing it for a long while even if rules say otherwise.
I may be wrong.
If they felt that shareholders are not a priority here then that woul’ve been a wake-up call. It may even have been a lack of communication. I know one holder who held 2 1/2 %
( 4 % before the Placing)
who sold out last year partially because of nil personal communication.
This business is about .......
Well....what is it about?
It was meant to be about reaching 7000 bopd via TGAL. Not sure where that is heading any more.
10% unlikely this year without further drilling . Why drill at $49 and full SPT as it is averaged out per quarter. This quarter will make zilcho. Maybe that’s why they sold.

[oilinvestoral] 10/2/2020 17:05

They may be new NoCents but they have access to the right people. They probably have the CEO and Chairman on speed dial. They've probably had numerous face to face meetings. I'll be watching the volume carefully over the next few days. 250k and 100k blocks mean they are still selling ...

[pavey ark] 10/2/2020 16:56

The management have no more control over things like this than they do over the share price.

As the management hold 23% and "friends and family" bring this over 40% I think it is fair to say that they have a passing interest in the share price but not any influence over the "casino players"

The things the management can influence they do influence.

Since I've invested here I don't think there has been one thing that the management have said they would do and have not achieved or now look like achieving in the near future.

In a slightly less irate tone, I was looking at the option info again and notice that they only wrote a call on 35000 barrels.
I suspect that this comparatively small payment was to cover the difference in the premium paid and and received in setting up the put spread.

Even in the worst case I can see the options covering 40 to 50% of the SPT this year.
It is worth noting that this strange tax does allow TRIN to set up these options in very favourable terms.
If you enter the options market with rather unusual priorities it should be possible to get this cover quite easily.

It also helps that TRIN have such a very low breakeven price.
I would be tempted to increase the sale of call options as low as $60 then go for even more onshore production that must be costing close to $10 to produce.
Perhaps an oversimplification but worth a thought.

While on the subject of management influence I see they have reduced the drilling cost per barrel of oil by more than 25% so on a yearly drilling programme of $8m we have an extra $2m.

The increased, low cost, onshore drilling and better production methods will bring the break even down even further and at least $1 per barrel is an almost given for this year or an extra $1.25m to the bottom line.

So c. $2m from options
$2m saving in cap ex
$1.25m for every dollar reduction in op ex
How much is this STP again !!!

NB the company only needs to maintain the 2019 year end production to achieve a three year 10% compound production growth and a large increase in cash ........if they ONLY maintain this they will not have drilled many wells and with limited CAP EX the cash pile will rise even further and faster.

You may notice that my view of management performance may differ from that expressed elsewhere.
I am, as ever , prepared to view/review any errors I've made in coming to these conclusions.

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:49

Good uplifting point Spell

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:44

Oili
They know no more than I do.
Probably far far less in fact. They are newbies.
There is nothing to be worried about. If anything it is a relief.
It may even be related to the oil price. Or as Mm says...a forced seller or taking profit from TXP and as dejected with Trin as some of us are. I am still incredulous that we are at this level. Pretty much same price as refinancing.
Where to from here though??
WTI is dire

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:39

Well if I could afford to sell I would.
First time in 6 years I have felt such powerful feelings of not mattering.

[oilinvestoral] 10/2/2020 15:37

It worries me slightly ... why would they sell at the lows? They probably know more than a poor PI like me ... not good when you see significant holders dumping their shares

[marvelman] 10/2/2020 15:35

With TXP it will be to lock in their substantial profits...with TRIN they are probably as fed up of waiting for the share price to rise as (most) of us are

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:32

TXP just went up from 12p to 42p.
Good enough reason to sell.
Trin could be disillusionment. Can’t know.

[astorcourt] 10/2/2020 15:28

if they selling TXP as well then surely its not performance related

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:23

Yes exactly. I wonder if it will be questioned by those at the helm or just shoulders shrugged though...as seems to be the norm.

[marvelman] 10/2/2020 15:16

Well they were in and out in just 7 months and don't appear to have made much if anything at all.

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:14

I wonder if it will even be pondered why they came and left. As so many others have.

[nocents] 10/2/2020 15:09

The selling over last 6 months hasxbeen relentless. I hope it was them and they are out. I care not why to be honest.It’s fairly obvious that I am so worn down by Trin ( not being in TXP) that I think they should undo their totally abject neglect of shareholders and maybe we can-as you say-move on.