Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[wwick] 15/7/2018 20:04

Definition of AUDACITY - RNS 25 Aug 2017: “2017 Grant of one-off awards under the Long-Term Incentive Plan - The Company believes that this one-off award will give management the opportunity to build up a meaningful shareholding in Trinity which further aligns their interest with shareholders and will help maintain the culture within Trinity which encourages strong and sustained corporate performance that drives absolute returns to shareholders over the longer-term.”
Bruce Dingwall & Jeremy Bridglalsingh will receive over 4,000,000 free shares if the following conditions are met:
1 - repayment of the Board of Inland Revenue of Trinidad and Tobago ("BIR") loan
2 - redemption of all the Convertible Loan Notes
How could they possibly satisfy these conditions? (question asked in a sarcastic manner)

[acsatix] 15/7/2018 19:58

No matter the amount of shares you guys will buy on AIM, the AIM float will reduce over time as the BoD proceeds with placements etc... this is a systematic thing... why do you think these guys on a 100$K salary are devoting their time to this? Too make someone else wealthy? yeah right.


regards.

[mark10101] 15/7/2018 11:33

marvelman, sounds like you have done well, I did not have the resources to combat the full dilution (I have felt pain in this process despite defending it) and ended up around your level.

[dunderheed] 15/7/2018 11:32

Ah thanks Mark, I only know e&p plus some pharma etc - nothing more than that lol!!
Best of luck all!

[marvelman] 15/7/2018 11:26

Although I have enough at circa 16p I am actually hoping that the overhang and portfolio rebalancing might bring it lower. Would love to get the rest of my subscription (69% of what I asked) at the subscription issue price as it would make me feel a lot better about things.

[marvelman] 15/7/2018 11:21

Interesting post Mark..we can all learn from other peoples experiences so thank you for sharing.

[mount teide] 15/7/2018 11:17

Oil Demand - Medium Term

What has the last 10 years taught us about the likely growth in future demand over the next 10 years in the boom and bust oil industry?

There's little doubt on my part about these 3 assumptions:
A) Demand is growing and will continue to grow in the foreseeable future
B) Demand will control the price dynamics in the foreseeable future (not the US shale or Venezuela/Iraq problems)
C) The march of demand is pretty robust and not particularly sensitive to the price unless it spikes dramatically from a high base level as in late 2007.

Brent was $97 a barrel when the global financial crisis hit in Q4/2007, some nine months later it topped out at $147 before briefly collapsing to circa $40 and then recovering back above $100 in 2010.

Between 2008 and 2015 Brent averaged $95 - yet global consumption grew from to 84.3m bopd to 94.9mbopd - an average annual increase of 1.37m bopd.

Oil Bottomed in early 2016 and has since averaged $58 - from 2016 to 2018 oil consumption increased to 99.3mbopd - an annual average increase of 1.47mbopd.

So, even during a period with high historic average oil prices ($95 during 2008-2015) the growth in consumption hardly varied to that when prices are averaging nearly 40% cheaper(2016 to date).

This is largely due to developing Nations accounting for all of the growth and this is where the very high population Asian Nations dominate, with about seven out of every 10 extra barrels consumed globally. India’s oil demand growth is expected to outpace China by 2020. While electric vehicles are an important growing factor for oil demand, the IEA estimates they will displace only very limited amounts of transportation fuel by 2022.

The supply side of the Oil Industry:

Rystad Energy reports that 2017 was yet another record low year for discovered conventional volumes globally. Less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent was discovered.

“We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s,” says Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy. “The discovered volumes averaged at 550 million barrels of oil equivalent per month. The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in 2017 reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) - compared to over 50% in 2012.” According to Rystad’s analysis, 2006 was the last year when reserve replacement ratio reached 100%; largely thanks to the giant onshore gas field Galkynysh in Turkmenistan.

Not only did the total volume of discovered resources decrease – so did the resources per discovered field. An average offshore discovery in 2017 held 100 million barrels of oil equivalent, compared to 150 million boe in 2012. “Low resources per discovered field can influence its commerciality. Under our current base case price scenario, we estimate that over 1 billion boe discovered during 2017 might never be developed”, says Passos.

“While there have been some notable successes this year, we have to face the fact that the low discovered volumes on a global level represent a serious threat to the supply levels down the road,” says Passos. “Global exploration expenditures have decreased year-over-year for three consecutive years now, falling by over 60% from 2014 to 2017. We need to see a turnaround in this trend if a significant supply deficit is to be avoided in the future.”

The dramatic price decline of oil between 2014 and 2016 and the slow recovery that followed resulted in deep cuts in exploration and development throughout the industry.

The International Energy Agency has been waving its arms for some time that this dearth of investment will mean constrained supplies after 2020.

"We are witnessing the start of a second wave of US supply growth, and its size will depend on where prices go,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “But this is no time for complacency. We don’t see a peak in oil demand any time soon. And unless investments globally rebound sharply, a new period of price volatility looms on the horizon.”

Data Sources: IEA, Rystad Energy and Statistics Portal

AIMHO/DYOR

The Industrial metals mining industry - particularly Copper, has identical market supply/demand challenges to the oil market as a result of a similar collapse in pricing through to 2016, which generated an even greater collapse in development and exploration Capital expenditure. Despite a partial recovery in pricing over the last two years, both the global oil(outside US shale) and copper industries are demonstrating little evidence of increasing capital expenditures from the decade lows.

[mark10101] 15/7/2018 10:16

Guys if you are interpreting this in the way you are DO NOT stray far into the world of AIM, you are not cut out for it (few are, myself included). I have had management that I built solid relationships with issue an RNS’s in October saying funding secured and and production to start the next QRT, only to have the shares suspended in November and delisted in December never to come back. My biggest holding holding at the time.

I am pretty sure we discussed the placing and likely “lottery”; in great detail, with some encouraging fulfilment on the open market given it was being so generous. I know somone who sold a lot of shares at 16p to try and scalp 1p profit. His strategy was never going to address the dilution even if it had worked. Now he has been scaled back with the rest. I thought his plan was risky at the time (he happily publicised it) and it looks no less risky now.

I can not see how this can be anything other than a broker/investor issue. Had an individual application been submitted it would have received the full allocation under £10k. We have posters on here showing it was possible. Bare in mind not all brokers participated. I had already done what I wanted to do before I found out my broker was not participating. I was only enquiringly as if I could easily get some at 15p it is easy profit and greed was griping me. The fact my broker did not support this placing was a relief as I had not got easy money left (I used next years tax money for my open market purchase....) and I was going to have to get even more creative to partake.

Maybe it is a lesson (in the world of AIM almost a feather tickle!) either way we all still have core holdings in a much much better company at a critical time in T&T restructuring, worth the dilution on its own without countering/undiluting it IMHO.

[imjustdandy] 15/7/2018 10:04

Best to look forward now . Company fully funded and generating very strong cash. The exchanges on here are ridiculous. It's done so look forward and move on.

[acsatix] 15/7/2018 09:13

Absolutely this was the insiders diluting small shareholders. Not only this is unethical but it will mean no one from institutions will want to buy from the front door of and just lobby the company to issue a placement for them. In fact I see little or no institutional presence here and it is for a reason.

[wwick] 15/7/2018 09:04

As per my posts, my only issue is with the inequality of the offer. The BoD and friends have put up £2,200,000. If private shareholders were to secure a similar value (£2.2m) they would have needed to put up £8,000,000 and then get scaled back. Private shareholders offered approximately £5,500,000. Were the BoD and friends scaled back from £8,000,000? What do you think? The over subscription also highlights the fact the value of the offer was too low. In summary, the BoD offered themselves low value stock and gave Private shareholders a token gesture. (none of this has anything to do with brokers or the £10k fiasco, these are separate issues, so keep them separate)

[nafafa] 14/7/2018 23:43

After the not too successful placing, lessons I’m sure will be learnt.

A fix perhaps could be to issue another chunk of shares. After the placing share on issue will be 486 million, so why not issue a further 14 million at 15p to PIs. Total shares would increae to a nice round 500 million, raise a further £2 million after costs and keep us all on side.

Happy days!

[dunderheed] 14/7/2018 19:54

You will probably be out in a month or two acsatix don't worry geyser!!

[acsatix] 14/7/2018 19:49

if we could do something to the bod they would have treated us better... they know that we are hopeless. hence this is a company hat will dilute all but their friends step by step. all I want now is three p increase and I am out.

[lw425] 14/7/2018 14:28

If you're so unhappy (all) why not requisition an EGM without delay.

The purpose would be to sack the entire BOD and remove them from office.

Punishment.

You can do it if you really want.

GO!

[mark10101] 14/7/2018 13:37

GO, I think it is important that Tracey and the company understand how tough this has been on everyone. I am sure any email you have sent will be seen as just emotions running high after a tough few weeks. I think it is excellent Tracey contacted you in person and shows they are deep in this also, and it appear they were trying to smooth things through.

I keep saying it but my broker could not even be bothered to apply for me so had I fully relied on that route I would not have been allocated anything. But understand the RNS created a different expectation compared to current outcome.

I think as next week progresses the mood should be improving as the holdings we do have recover in price. This really looks a new and exciting chapter for TRIN. In the coming weeks and months with so many opertunities now avaialble to us, I for one am looking forward to the future.

[wwick] 14/7/2018 12:51

WitJ - Hargreaves year-to-date total net revenue of £366.6 million up 16% - you pay them plenty

[dunderheed] 14/7/2018 12:51

Exactly guys.
Do you know what used to be the best broker imho, citydeal, they were damned cheap but always got good prices both ways. They were taken over by Santander and then selftrade who I also find to be excellent. Don't know how they would have handled this issue but I see trinity side very much and exactly my interpretation of what's gone wrong here. There is a chap over on lse who spent many hours liaising with his broker to no avail (yet) and feels rightly aggrieved (I think) with his broker, considering the amount of time he personally invested in communications with said broker.

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/7/2018 12:34

Yes she needs to know what people are thinking and feeding that back to BOD.

I complained to Hargreaves yesterday. They've provided a poor service imo. Im sure they'll do nothing, but I had to let them know I feel let down.

But I pay them pretty much nothing. No annual fee, just a few trades a year. I guess sometimes you get what you pay for.

[marvelman] 14/7/2018 12:21

As I have said on my previous posts Gabriel I do not blame Trinity for Iweb, as an example, not bothering to data sort those up to the £10,000 limit and allocation them the full entitlement. I have accepted that the broker is responsible and hides under the pooling rule. If someone has a one to one relationship with their broker Trinity's intentions can be met in full but most of us are likely to be in nominee accounts. Tracey may be offended by your Emails (too bad) but at least she has not had to suffer the dilution of circa 28% of her holding due to her company's mis handling of the funding arrangements...thanks for sharing your efforts and I am pleased that at least Trinity has been made aware of much shareholder discontent. Regards.

[gabrieloak] 14/7/2018 12:08

DYOR

Good luck all long term holders

[marvelman] 14/7/2018 11:22

I see some lunatic has spent much of this morning putting a red thumb against all the posts over the past few days. What a sad and bitter person they must be. The standard of conversation on this board however, despite the disappointment endured by most, is still exemplary and remains intact as a forum of the highest quality.