Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 11:35

I think that was sensible.

Some here think oil could keep going but $60 oil is where fracking starts to effect economics according to some opec members.

Happy above $50 as we are very profitable then anyway.

[che7win] 12/1/2018 11:29

shrewd,
no negatives as such, but the CLN note payment might be holding back any drilling plans?

The hedging policy also has decreased risk but limited some upside, not really a negative.

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 11:28

Level 2 looking very very strong

[bones] 12/1/2018 11:20

Another possible positive, being so close to Venezuela geographically, is picking up some of that country's distressed business?

Like you, struggling to see the negatives. If anything, the one that does hold TRIN back is reputational given the near bankruptcy two years ago. Even the effects of that may be wearing off. Of course, there are many investors in from the re-financing at just under 5p so a potential overhang technically but I believe the investors were mainly sticky long-termers, not minded to sell for a quick buck. I suspect those that were sellers, will have done so long ago. Remember the long drag that kept us held down at 10p?

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 11:16

I agree with that wwick.

The last date we have a net debt figure is (-$1m) at end H1 2017.

But we know cash rose from $11.5m at end of H1 to $12.3m at end September. And they made debt repayment during this period.

So I don't think it's unreasonable to estimate that $1m of net debt was wiped out by end of 2017. And so we now have a positive cash position.

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 11:11

On a serious note I'd welcome any meaningful comments regarding negatives.

I just can't see any?

Cln - maybe but can't see them being cashed in.

Debt being overpaid.
Profitable month on month
Low cost base
Increasing production
High impact offshore acreage
Management own a chunk
Historic losses offset tax for years
Possible spt reform straight to bottom line

Like I say it's a serious question.

Sm

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 11:08

Ross
He owns a decent chunk too though and will know the cln is a bit of a drag on share price so will want that gone to increase his own share value.

S

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 11:04

Whiskey

I'm using that as a longstop date.
Could happen a lot earlier.

There won't be any guff as his incentives are based on the cln being gone!!

S

[wwick] 12/1/2018 10:48

Typo Shrewd? think he meant H2 2017 WitJ

[uapatel] 12/1/2018 10:40

Not to mention the asset sale providing some extra funds to either help clear debt or used for the drill programme later in the year.

All very promising wouldn't you say.

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 10:25

Shrewdmole, why should it take until end of 2018 to clear debt?

They have the cash now.

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 10:24

Sorry phone was playing up

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 10:23

So basically by end of 2018 we should have no liabilities at all as debt to government and cln should be paid off before they can be converted!

That's when we really start motoring.

As it becomes clearer through updates that this point is being reached it will support the price growth.

Thanks for the info guys.

S

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 10:22

So basically by end of 2018 we should have no liabilities at all as debt to government and cln should be paid off before they can be converted!

That's when we really start motoring.

As it becomes clearer through updates that this point is being reached it will support the price growth.

Thanks for the info guys.

S

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 10:22

Slide 11 also states clearly net debt position was (-$1m) at end of H1 2017.

And Note 3 on this slide explains:

"Net debt position: Utilises face value of Convertible Loan Note (“CLN”) and Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries (“MEEI”) as opposed to fair value as stated in financial statements"

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 10:15

S-The face value of the loan is $6.7m.

Ive taken Net debt from last presentation (slide5):



Net Debt (inc. 12M working capital: current assets – current liabs – debt) was (-$1m) at mid year.

So they have enough money now to clear debt.

[shrewdmole] 12/1/2018 10:03

What was the value of the cln?

I think the share incentives for CEO are reliant on cln being paid anyway aren't they?

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 09:57

They had $12.3 million cash at end of September 2017, net debt was only (-$1m) at end of H1 2017, so they should have enough cash to clear all debt this quarter.

[the big fella] 12/1/2018 09:38

Just for clarity I meant doubling of the share price in each of the next 2 years i.e. in 2 years 65p+ share price.