Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 25/7/2024 23:49

Trin are not in a awkwardly place as they have cash and are trading profitably.....certainly could/should be doing much better but not in any trouble The board are legally required to consider ALL offers and have done nothing wrong ( for once)Some of these posts are reasonable and make valid points but it doesn't help anyone to exaggerate or get emotional just to make your case.

[andrewbyles] 25/7/2024 23:35

I’m disappointed by Trinity’s decision to postpone the court hearing and a little concerned.

My disappointment arises for two reasons. First, Lease Operators late bid suggests that there wasn’t a proper sale process following Touchstone’s approach at the end of last year. Often one sees a strategic review following a bid approach with the aim of establishing whether there are any other interested parties. Even where there’s no formal strategic review, one hopes that the company is speaking to possible acquirers to see whether there’s any interest. It now seems questionable whether this happened informally, which is pretty poor.

Second, it’s poor behaviour for the directors to postpone the court meeting, delaying and potentially jeopardising the Touchstone takeover (Touchstone now has the right to walk away) given that they’d voted for it and that the overwhelming majority of shareholders did too. To jeopardise the takeover when no actual bid has been made by LO and when any bid would require fresh regulatory approval seems all the more foolish.

I’m not interested in the LO bid and continue to support the Touchstone takeover (as do the 38.9% of shareholders, including the directors, who’ve given irrevocable undertaking to vote in favour of it). The Touchstone takeover has three significant advantages to shareholders. First, we retain an interest in Trinity’s significantly undervalued assets. Second, we share in the significant cost savings that will be achieved following the takeover. Third, we receive undervalued Touchstone shares. Touchstone with Trinity will be a much more valuable proposition than Touchstone alone. I wish to be part of it.

For pretty much the first time Trinity was overdelivering on something (the takeover was at least a month ahead of schedule), but now they’ve messed it up (with the further consequence that they keep their jobs and salaries for another month).

[nafafa] 25/7/2024 22:25

If a credible bid does not materialise by the deadline there is a possibility that TXP reduce or even pull their offer, which potentially leaves Trin in a very awkward place. I wonder then would Trin management be prepared to engage with shareholders and run the business to benefit shareholders, rather than to further their own interests, all along my preferred solution.Obviously if existing Trin holders consider that the current TXP share price is artificially low because of perceived dilution associated with the deal then this is an opportunity to sell Trin and buy TXP provided one thinks TXP is a good investment without Trin's cash and ongoing production - an interesting conundrum!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 25/7/2024 22:09

TXP has not done well in the spotlight since the bid. It feels like this has been less about the merits of the bid and more about the market gradually pricing in what a risky proposition TXP really is. This latest development feels like a lifeline for TRIN shareholders, but it is hard to evaluate. I hope for their sake that it comes good.

[che7win] 25/7/2024 17:17

Andrew, I'm wondering if you're around what your thoughts are...... This is a real spanner in the works. TXP can't sweeten deal without getting their own shareholders to vote as they were on the 19.99% limit

[che7win] 25/7/2024 17:15

It's more complex than that.Today, I did some arbitraging, selling TRIN at a loss and buying TXP as the current arbitrage terms are better than the 1.5 share offer from TXP.However, I do think 68.5p approach has legs, so I will be keeping majority here for now and watching. The scenarios I listed earlier are my thoughts.... My only slight concern is if TXP didn't want the hassle..... But I think it's too big a bargain to pass up dude diligence and effort they have put in from last October on this deal.

[nocents] 25/7/2024 16:58

16th August deadline for ratification of a formal offer.
Dear me, this goes on and on.
What would be the point of making an offer unless you could fund it or were serious about it? Answers welcome.

[nocents] 25/7/2024 13:48

“Hold my beer”
Nice analogy.

[nocents] 25/7/2024 12:46

I agree with PAthat this is now a solid “ punt”. Txp clearly want Trin and have planned for Trin’s cash.( Trin can exist comfortably without TXP and generate cash too) . The rather ‘ tantrumy’ rns from TXP reveals this. Or they could change their mind maybe.
However, clearly Trin is attractive and obviously cheap.

[value hound] 25/7/2024 12:26

Simon T has updated under the heading; "Touchstone’s bid for Trinity gate crashed by rival"

He concludes …

"Given the gulf between the two offers, Trinity’s board has rescheduled the court hearing to 23 August 2024 to provide time for Lease Operators’ proposal to be evaluated and advanced. Touchstone’s proposed 1.5-for-one share exchange was originally worth 61.9p per Trinity share, but the company’s share price has shed a quarter of its value since the offer was made (‘Touchstone bid lights up Trinity’s shares’, 1 May 2024). It now has a value of 46.5p per Trinity share, representing a 39 per cent discount to the 76p target price of Trinity’s house broker Cavendish.

Of course, there is no certainty that Lease Operators will make a firm offer, but Trinity shareholders have nothing to lose by letting this bid situation play out. Hold."

[che7win] 25/7/2024 12:19

So I think from here:1. The court case is 23rd Aug. If LOP is a credible approach and advances the court case will go ahead for LOP. TRIN directors will only let this go ahead if the LOP approach can prove they have cash to fundAt this stage, TXP either counter offer or pull out day before. 2. If the other approach isn't credible, TRIN directors pull the approach / court case. TXP get TRIN

[sleepy] 25/7/2024 12:16

My post from 3 May might be of interest

Sleepy3 May '24 - 14:37 - 7512 of 7754 Edit

Broadly Trinity shareholders end up with c 20% of the enlarged company.

Is this fair or would 25% (roughly equivalent to 2 TXP shares for each TRIN share) be fairer?

[sleepy] 25/7/2024 12:05

Cavendish’s price target on 29 April last was 76p. This does not take account of potential synergies which would be available to a buyer

[che7win] 25/7/2024 11:35

Nocents, It's win win for TRIN shareholders.1. TXP do nothing and hope the other approach doesn't advance. We get 1.5 TXP shares.2.Other approach advances and 68p becomes binding... We get 68p per share. TXP walk away.3. Other approach becomes binding, we are T 68p, TXP if they really want us will offer higher premium. Maybe stick with 1.5 TXP shares but return the cash on TRIN balance sheet say 20p per share extra.... Who knows .TXP AS I understand it can't walk away unless the other approach becomes binding and recommended by board. I think that TXP want TRIN... But how keen I don't know. Either way, I think TRIN should be higher...

[pavey ark] 25/7/2024 11:32

Nafafa, I must admit that I was rather taken aback by this but even allowing for my very low opinion of the board I doubt if they had any choice but to consider ANY offer or potential offer.

The indicative 68p offer is dependent on the board's approval so they could scupper it at any time.....I don't think they will but then I imagine the "attractiveness" of any offer centres round their "arrangements"

What we may see is very positive and glossy news from TXP but they would have to get their share price up almost 50% to come up to this recent 68p CASH offer.....hmmm!!??....looks like 68p is the winner.

You pays your money you takes your chance !!??

[nocents] 25/7/2024 11:31

That is an extremely defensive/passive aggressive RNS by TXP at 11:00 this morning!! NB. They are trying to undermine the credibility of Lease Holdings’ offer.

[nafafa] 25/7/2024 11:05

There is very little information on Lease Operators and they appear to be owned by Well Services Petroleum also very little information. Leaves me deeply sceptical that this is not a serious or credible offer but a delaying or spoiling tactic. It is outrageous that this late stag the board should even consider this. Potential bidders have previously had ample opportunity for to come forward none have. The delay will keep them in their jobs for longer, give them opportunity to further rundown the cash and jeopardises the existing deal, which is about to be finalised. Absolutely appalling behaviour.Now perhaps there is real urgency for shareholders to club together and call an EGM

[pavey ark] 25/7/2024 10:52

The share price moved about as the MMs established a market.....it's what they do.

Obviously TRIN shareholders were taken by surprise but as things moved on it was more like "rabbits in headlights".

I had the last of my December purchases c. 30p-35p all set to go at 58p but trading was difficult but when the price dropped to 50p I decided that things had got rather silly and bought more.

Regardless of people's opinion of the board (understandably not good) the fact remains that we have a company in which two other companies are very interested (and have local knowledge).

No matter how bad the board's performance has been we do know that TRIN is basically a sound company and if we throw in this interest from the two bidders I personally thing this situation merits a further punt......but each to his own !!

[sleepy] 25/7/2024 10:23

nocents - I sympathise with you. It would seem sensible and logical that the Trinity Directors should do all they can to support a genuine bid at 68p (edit - or better) I have only been a shareholder here since earlier this year but sensible and logical are not the first words that come to mind when I think of the Trinity Board

[nocents] 25/7/2024 10:08

I would very much like someone with knowledge of this sort of game-playing to say what is the likely out come. Trin went to 58p (not on selling) and back to 48 so the market does not trust what is going on. It clearly does not see Mr. Brash’s offer as credible.

[kaos3] 25/7/2024 08:27

the main objective of the lease - if i was them - would be to keep txp shares as cheap as possible bor the time being

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 25/7/2024 07:32

TXP deal almost done and dusted? "Hold my beer" says Lease Operators.

[sleepy] 24/7/2024 23:45

Do the irrevocables now fall away?