Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 23/1/2018 16:06

Bought 35k shares, 20 mins ago, a bargain at this price.

[mark10101] 23/1/2018 15:52

The value is here, I am watching closely as I will be buying for the first time since we relisted a year ago, represents even better value than at 7p at this level.

[marvelman] 23/1/2018 15:49

Wish this seller would realise that...very frustrating.

[mark10101] 23/1/2018 15:47

Oil looking strong, hopefully with supportive data this week we push on up to $68. Every $ rise from home brings in an exrtra $1m per year in revenue.

[mark10101] 23/1/2018 14:56

Absolutely, with management being significant share holders removing any ambiguity sets us up for a great 2018 which they will enjoy as well. Once debt is paid down we could do relatively low impact drilling at the rate of 2 a month from profit, bringing on 2-300bopd extra a month, nice.

[mark10101] 23/1/2018 11:58

Oil still around $64.

At 2800bopd TRIN brings in revenue of $5,376,000 every month! With $30 break even and 22% SPT puts us around $1,885,000 profit per month.

Please check these numbers but it looks like oil is giving us a real chance to close down all debt very promptly, let’s hope spring brings us good news re progress.

[shrewdmole] 22/1/2018 16:50

I believe today's bounce is due to lw closing his short!

No really it's being played with to suit whoever is accumulating, try a few splintered buys and the offer capitulates....

[mark10101] 22/1/2018 16:26

Oil above $64 again. TRIN spiking, I wonder if there is news from the conference?

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/1/2018 14:57

Yeah the Saudis always said that it was never about defeating shale. I doubt many Americans believed them, but they said the market will decide the price; what they want to do is take out the troughs and gluts so that the oil price is stable.

But if oil price is to be stable in long term, it needs to be relatively high to encourage investment in new supply. We tend to think of production as supply, but inventory is supply too.

[mark10101] 22/1/2018 11:42

WITJ, great honest interview from Al-Falih, no wonder they are smug. Reporter asks if they are worried about shale, and he tells it as it is.

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/1/2018 11:15

Joint interview, Saudi Oil Minister and Russian Oil Minister.





They both say they'll keep cooperating on oil long term beyond 2018, regardless of whether cuts need extending or not.

But they are focused on reducing inventory NOT the oil price.

Remarkable I think how in tune they are. They are like two rather glum twins being interviewed lol.

[mark10101] 22/1/2018 10:44

Feature address by the Energy Minister in 3 hours time. Seems as good a time as any to make tax reform announcements.

[mark10101] 21/1/2018 21:17

A chart from here arguing the correlation of rig count with production has decoupled. I would rather wait to see.

[marvelman] 21/1/2018 13:26

Nice synopsis rossannan and reminds me why I can't bring myself to invest in the other two for now.

[melody9999] 21/1/2018 10:17

LW425 filtered.

This is a very good thread with some knowledgeable posters - thankyou.

A contrarian view is also useful if that is backed up by facts - but not if the poster's intent is just to manipulate the market because they either hold a short position or are looking for a lower price for a long entry.

[wwick] 20/1/2018 16:36

Hi, sorry I did not mean to open a can of worms. Its perhaps better to leave names out of this. If say two producers are selling at $50/bbl, one has an opex of $30/bbl, the other $40/bbl. Broadly speaking, the more efficient producer earns 100% more than the less efficient producer for the same production. To look at this another way, the less efficient producer would need double production to match the earnings of the more efficient producer. In the short term the more efficient producer is in a resilient & sustainable position. Why does this matter? It matters for two reasons, the more efficient producer can weather storms and/or grow. Point 1 – low opex is key. Now, how about reserves, there is an intrinsic value in them, but if the capital to unlock reserves is not accessible their worth is limited. If the production rate is small relative to reserves, again their worth is limited (future earnings are discounted to present value). Point 2 – reserves are important to a point. Now what about capex, more to the point funding of capex. Generating cash (organic growth) is more efficient than debt. Point 3 – Debt erodes earnings. So with that brain dump out of the way I am looking for a producer with low opex and no debt who will deliver (proven management) low risk, sustainable growth.

[grannyboy] 20/1/2018 16:08

I've not said anything detrimental about TRIN, in fact they are a good company, and would have no hesitation investing in them, but I try not to have too many companies in the same location...

But I believe there is going to be more activity at TXP, with all the planned drilling for 2018.

[mark10101] 20/1/2018 15:58

Grannyboy, someone told me $42 verbally but we can leave it at $35.18 as per the last qrt accounts plus G&A just trying to make it comparable to TRINS figure. They did state G&A was up 45% in 3rd qrt 2017 but I could not find a figure.

TXP is on my watchlist and if all goes well over the next year will likely outperform TRIN (which I expect to do very well ) but I just like the risk reward balance here better.

[mark10101] 20/1/2018 15:38

Yes, we know TRIN is Approx $22/barrel in profit and we have the highest production but I think people are trying to get a handle on which actually represents the best value. I am personally happy TRIN offers the best overall value ATM but if TXP gets things together and increases production and reduces there overall cost per barrel and reduces debt it will catch up with TRIN. CERP is just a bonkers share in my view...