Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 15/1/2018 14:01

No no rush to true value but would be good to get into the mid 20’s before we get the next update and other possible news, just will give a nice springboard for the next level. I share your long term view but for the early phase of TRINS rise it will be in notches and this is the latest one. Hopefully by the end of the year the volatility will decrease and we move to a steady rise rate.

[mark10101] 15/1/2018 13:06

Looking like the stealth rise continues, I would expect a challenge on 20p very shortly.

[mark10101] 15/1/2018 09:46

Kaos absolutely, so many wild cards and like you say the Chinese are looking to offer an alternative to the Petro $, Venezuela’s oil assets have been taken over by the military and their once large production is declining rapidly. I read an article where there is the potential around the world to loose 3m bopd this year. I think EIA predicts another 800,000 bopd from the US if all goes well...

My view is there are so many upside risks for oil and one downside drag. So just focusing on simple supply and demand I have formed the view we actually need US fracking to kick in in a big way otherwise we are back to $100 pretty rapidly.

[kaos3] 15/1/2018 09:23

also - it Will be interesting which power takes over Venezuela assets. a POO driver on its own.

then the Q is coming - POO but in what currency at what time (spot or futures, dollar or yuan )

I tend to make it simple and just think in term of the physical production and demand

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/1/2018 09:14

Forecasting the oil price isn't an easy thing imo. Neither is trying to predict Putins strategy. Who'd have thought Russia and Saudi would cooperate so much last year? Not me anyway.

Both IEA and OPEC are forecasting inventory to rise this quarter as shale responds to higher prices and some long term projects come on line like offshore Brazil. Brazil isn't part of the nonopec deal. So if its expected, its priced in, an inventory rise is priced in.

But nobody really knows the extent to which shale will ramp up, they always seem to underestimate demand and Venezuelan production now seems to be collapsing.

And there's always potential for crazy unpredictable geopolitical stuff. Especially with Trump stirring things up.

I think you just have to stay top of the news if you want to trade oii, things change all the time.

[uapatel] 15/1/2018 09:10

Can't find the article I read, but the issue they raised on US shale was that although recent prices would mean more opportunities to drill.

The though that;

A) the best fields were drilled and worked when prices were not so high to make money,
B) expertise has left the business in the down turn and is not returning putting pressure on wages and therefore margins.

Impacting on the US shale really not being as powerful on depressing prices.

Maybe not a big drag, but then again it might be enough short term to keep prices buoyed.

[mark10101] 15/1/2018 09:05

SM the financials here are a lot less under the radar than they were. I was playing around with a spreadsheet over the weeend that was created by Gabriel Oak who posts on LSE (well worth joining LSE to follow his infrequent but enlightening posts), I am not even going to post what our valuation would be on a 10PE atm let along industry standard of 25PE. Moving on to 2019 with healthy cash in bank and no debt with oil above $60 and SPT reform is anyone’s guess.

GO recently posted on LSE that the WTI/petrotrin discount has continued to be very tight and that has been since the hurricane. My rough calculation (please do your own calculations) show over the last 4 months it alone has added approx $1m to revenue. Not an insignificant sum relating to debt repayment. That is just a bonus and ignoring what oil is doing to the profitability.

All people interested in TRIN should be doing their own detailed research, it is a company that is worth, it and does not have the opacity of many stocks on AIM.

[kaos3] 15/1/2018 09:05

mark - agreed but not yet as long as there is cheap financing around. then you are right. depends on the avaibility on financing. when it is priced in real terms you are right of course.

[mark10101] 15/1/2018 08:59

Kaos3 that is exactly why oil is going to surprise to the upside. Your outdated view which is shared by most is why oil stocks are lagging. Did you read SM article posted yesterday, as with oil article on the price they close by stating “at (insert current price rounded up) the US shale drillers will ramp up product and crush oil prices. They were adement $50 was the point, then $60 later this week when we hit $70 WTI that will be the level.

We are $15 higher oil over a steady 3 month period above $50 yet US oil has not responded yet. Could there be trouble in the shale story?

[kaos3] 15/1/2018 08:35

and there is SPT collar I know.
and CLN situation.
those 2 factors Will be most important in 2018.

I was speaking to the oil investors in general. If you think in general terms - share price shoul have risen much more. due to the POO rise. But it is not. Market does not think that POO Will keep rising

[shrewdmole] 15/1/2018 08:28

Kaos

Trin isn't an oil price play.
Break even is $30 oil.

[kaos3] 15/1/2018 08:20

in my own words - Russia Will step out of the OPEC agreement at the next meeting. imho POO got the level where the US shale gets fully started. Which Russians do not want to. So there is a window for oilers before there is the next turn as described. just my opinion.

[shrewdmole] 15/1/2018 08:07

Mr 200k is back on the bid!!

[mark10101] 14/1/2018 14:57

SM yes, most still believe oil to be in a bear market. Oil has definitively broken out and will certainly be starting to catch attention now. 2018 should be a fantstic year for TRIN and happy for them to plod along and continue building on the strength.

[shrewdmole] 14/1/2018 14:43

Mark

Could entice people to look harder at oil companies but I still think the beauty of Trin is its simplicity.

It makes money every day - simple.

We aren't waiting on new exploration to make money - we have high impact acreage to go at as and when we want to or have a farm out et X

But right now the company bank account is going up every day we pump.

That alone means eventually a wider audience will sit up and take a closer look.

Just need to be patient and of course if they announce the debt is paid then a real boost.

Looking forward to the coming days and weeks as more people click on to the valuation gap and the P/E ratio that is way out of kilter.

S

[mark10101] 14/1/2018 14:13

Interesting how they still finish every article that shale will soon kick in and crush the oil price. That was the very clear argument at $50 that oil would be capped at that level, we have been above $50 for 3 months and US oil production has not responded yet. Last week 15 new rigs were deployed in the US which is in line with last year... We are in very real danger that with surging global demand that the US does not deliver this surge in production, if they don’t forget about $80 oil we will be back in the $100’s.

[spellbrook] 14/1/2018 13:56

Geopolitical Wildcards Could Push Oil Beyond $70

[wwick] 14/1/2018 12:56

On Friday we were posting about net debt. I listened back at November's sharesoc presentation and 5m 50s in Bruce clearly states "low levels of debt, that will unwind to a positive number by the end of this year (2017)" . Please, no more talk about debt (incl CLN's they are counted in the figures). Repeat after me 'there is no debt'.

[shrewdmole] 13/1/2018 11:59

Mark

I agree. Oil looking strong and with next quarterly production update due in Feb it is turning into a perfect storm.

I suspect 3k bopd could be on the cards especially as the west coast sale didn't happen. And with this potential spt reform we could really seethe price move.

On a technical point of view that chart looks very good for further rises next week and what is evident on level 2 last couple of days is there's a bit of a scramble for stock.

S

[mark10101] 13/1/2018 09:38

Esmerelda, yes it is certainly a deterrent and agree it was to stop early opportunists.

Oil closed a new heigh, $70 next week is possible and may even get to $80 in the coming weeks before some consolidation. Some well timed news with strong oil and I think the share price will finally start reflecting some fair value.

[esmerelda] 13/1/2018 09:21

When I looked at this a few months ago the dilution resulting from excise of the CLNs was 20%. It may be worth some here appreciating what these CLNs might be for and IMHO you are looking at a "poison pill" defence rather than an opportunity for the favoured few to acquire a few more. A low debt/low cost/relatively high production company is always going to be a takeover target. The CLNs may be excised in the event of a takeover of the company. So any bidder must add an extra 20% on top of what he is willing to pay for the existing equity. This gives the existing management a two year breathing space during which any predators will be deterred. FWIW I expect the CLNs to be repaid around November rather than sooner so that the company share price is much higher before any bidder would become seriously interested.

[spellbrook] 13/1/2018 06:37

February update will show current bopd and give further details on Trinity’s goals, plans and current debt payments.

We know the bod are incentivised and if we hit 35p it’s a big pay day for them

Share price boosters imo..

SPT reform goes through
Sale of west coast asset
Debt pay down accelerated
Possible small drill programme revealed
Possible farmout agreement
Maybe a buy out once the business is debt free
3000 bopd achieved

[ffp] 12/1/2018 23:37

fidra, just look at the thread I have been on, not in anyway share related. I have no ulterior motive. I just asked a simple question. What would be the dilution and what effect would it have on the share price. Just looking at a different angle. For interest, I put these in the bottom drawer must be 5 years ago.

As said it is just a question, if you lot of knowledgeables cannot answer how do you expect me to?

[wwick] 12/1/2018 21:22

fidra, spot on, a question with an agenda (ffp) does not warrant an answer. A head in the sand response is a simply disingenuous. So, seriously, TRIN should and will take a just-in-time approach to CLNs, why? Because the cash is better employed elsewhere.