Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[wwick] 14/1/2018 12:56

On Friday we were posting about net debt. I listened back at November's sharesoc presentation and 5m 50s in Bruce clearly states "low levels of debt, that will unwind to a positive number by the end of this year (2017)" . Please, no more talk about debt (incl CLN's they are counted in the figures). Repeat after me 'there is no debt'.

[shrewdmole] 13/1/2018 11:59

Mark

I agree. Oil looking strong and with next quarterly production update due in Feb it is turning into a perfect storm.

I suspect 3k bopd could be on the cards especially as the west coast sale didn't happen. And with this potential spt reform we could really seethe price move.

On a technical point of view that chart looks very good for further rises next week and what is evident on level 2 last couple of days is there's a bit of a scramble for stock.

S

[mark10101] 13/1/2018 09:38

Esmerelda, yes it is certainly a deterrent and agree it was to stop early opportunists.

Oil closed a new heigh, $70 next week is possible and may even get to $80 in the coming weeks before some consolidation. Some well timed news with strong oil and I think the share price will finally start reflecting some fair value.

[esmerelda] 13/1/2018 09:21

When I looked at this a few months ago the dilution resulting from excise of the CLNs was 20%. It may be worth some here appreciating what these CLNs might be for and IMHO you are looking at a "poison pill" defence rather than an opportunity for the favoured few to acquire a few more. A low debt/low cost/relatively high production company is always going to be a takeover target. The CLNs may be excised in the event of a takeover of the company. So any bidder must add an extra 20% on top of what he is willing to pay for the existing equity. This gives the existing management a two year breathing space during which any predators will be deterred. FWIW I expect the CLNs to be repaid around November rather than sooner so that the company share price is much higher before any bidder would become seriously interested.

[spellbrook] 13/1/2018 06:37

February update will show current bopd and give further details on Trinity’s goals, plans and current debt payments.

We know the bod are incentivised and if we hit 35p it’s a big pay day for them

Share price boosters imo..

SPT reform goes through
Sale of west coast asset
Debt pay down accelerated
Possible small drill programme revealed
Possible farmout agreement
Maybe a buy out once the business is debt free
3000 bopd achieved

[ffp] 12/1/2018 23:37

fidra, just look at the thread I have been on, not in anyway share related. I have no ulterior motive. I just asked a simple question. What would be the dilution and what effect would it have on the share price. Just looking at a different angle. For interest, I put these in the bottom drawer must be 5 years ago.

As said it is just a question, if you lot of knowledgeables cannot answer how do you expect me to?

[wwick] 12/1/2018 21:22

fidra, spot on, a question with an agenda (ffp) does not warrant an answer. A head in the sand response is a simply disingenuous. So, seriously, TRIN should and will take a just-in-time approach to CLNs, why? Because the cash is better employed elsewhere.

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 19:52

FFP the circular is the best place for the convertable loan information. The level of dilution is definitely worth avoiding. I would prefer delayed drilling rather than risk them converting. Nothing is guaranteed but I take comfort in the managements actions so far. With oil at $64.3 as we speak and on the way to $70 next week the extra revenue should allow even faster payment.

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/1/2018 19:46

It's not head in sand to say its not happening.

The scenario is Trinity already have more cash than they have debt and are accumulating more cash every day.

And Trinity are under no pressure to drill, so the idea they'd risk default on the loan by drilling is farcical imo.

[fidra] 12/1/2018 19:29

FFP,For someone who has been a member since 1999 and posted over 35000 times I find it hard to believe you are unable to do that basic research yourself.

[ffp] 12/1/2018 19:25

Mark, yes I have all that firmly imprinted in my brain. Like most on here your posts are helpful and educated. So can I put my question another way. How much are the loan notes? I will then be able to work it out for myself.

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 18:36

FFP read my response. As demonstrated by the boards actions by overpaying the government debt (why do that when there is no interest on that debt and they could plod along as per the schedule) and they are incentivised to pay it off early with their performance related pay.

[ffp] 12/1/2018 18:15

How much is the loan note divided by 8p per share, is not that simple? So what is the dilution. 20p a share then worried, 1p a share then what the hell carry on using the money to accumulate and progress. So how many shares would convert. I would suggest that not happening is a head in the sand situation.

It was only a question!

[spellbrook] 12/1/2018 17:49

Nice selection of buys and sells today, hopefully we can build on this next week

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 17:45

Crude motoring on, I think we came off yesterday’s high because we bounced dead on $70 for Brent, hopefully after this test we will push on higher.

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 17:34

FFP, the management are incentivised to pay off the CLN prior to it coming into effect.

They have accelerated the pay down of the government debt that is not carrying interest. We need to pay off this government debt before we pay down the CLN so logic dictates they have accelerated the payment of the government debt as they are keen to resolve the CLN debt. Nothing is guaranteed but it looks to me their intent is clear.

[wwick] 12/1/2018 17:19

FFP, not happening

[bones] 12/1/2018 17:02

FFP, I am sorry but my crystal ball is currently in for its annual service.

[ffp] 12/1/2018 17:01

If the CLN's were converted into shares, what effect would that have on the share price?

[wwick] 12/1/2018 16:35

Thanks Mark, do you know the 2017 royalty rate?

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 16:22

WWick, this is just referring to the Royalty, which varies and in some cases for Gas was very low. This just evens things out between gas and oil (which has mostly been at 12.5p anyway), however given gas is now by far the largest proportion of production this will increase their take. Hopefully free up some tax to lighten the burden on Oil companies and also incentivise increasing the countries oilproduction to reduce the need to import oil for their under capacity refinery.

[wwick] 12/1/2018 15:42

Bones et al this replaces the existing Regulation (61. (1) Every Exploration and Production (Public Petroleum Rights) Licensee shall pay a royalty at a rate to be stipulated in the licence on the net petroleum won and saved from the licensed
area. ) . I do not have a clear understanding. The old reg. referred to a "stipulated tax rate", the new reg states the rate (12.5% effective now). Is this saying the 18% spt is replaced by 12.5% ?

[mark10101] 12/1/2018 15:41

Yes Does look the next most probably date, not that far away now.

[che7win] 12/1/2018 15:32

Energy conference on 22nd - 24th, that's a likely time for any announcement on tax reform:
It's a big event for T&T oil:

9:30am – 9:50am Feature Address: Franklin Khan, Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

[bones] 12/1/2018 14:32

The extract from new regulations attached to that tweet posted by Rossannan includes, as an example, the following:

4. Regulation 61 of the Regulations is amended by revoking subregulation (1) and substituting the following subregulation:
“ (1) Every Exploration and Production (Public Petroleum Rights) Licensee or contractor under a production sharing contract shall pay a royalty at a rate of 12.5% on the net petroleum won and saved from the licensed area or contract area.”.

The changes to the Regulations takes effect from 1st January 2018, so already looks like changes are afoot.