Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[andrewbyles] 15/4/2024 08:19

Trinity doesn’t appear to have the resources (financial, managerial or technical) to exploit its assets. It’s tried to develop them, but appears now to achieved little more than an expansion of its cost base (at least three expensive managers have been taken over the past couple of years, adding a few hundred thousand dollars per year in cost).

Trinity’s AIM listing, which includes the need for five non-executives, is an additional cost.

Trinity’s biggest assets is it tax losses, but it now seems less likely that it will create enough profit to benefit from them.

A sale to a larger company would address the resource problem, cut costs and allow the tax losses to be utilised. It would also provide a way out for a shareholders, which I suspect is now being looked for.

[langland] 15/4/2024 08:13

Now valued at little more than 1$ per 2p reserves not to mention existing cash.

[pavey ark] 15/4/2024 08:09

This will probably hit the share price again but must be limited with year end cash predicted at 22p / share.Disappointing but easy to see the reduction as they must have had infill wells contributing in their future plans and these are now uneconomic.........they aren't going to drill infill well in the future.Galeota has been cut down but that could be part of the sale/development plan ??Nothing drastic here but once again it isn't a positive announcement .Plenty of hints in the new Cavendish update ( careful reading required) so we will find out next week.

[nocents] 15/4/2024 08:02

Andrew
Please explain rationale.

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2024 08:00

Sorry to read that reserves downgrade guys! That seemed dire

[sleveen] 15/4/2024 08:00

The profit? & loss account for 2023 is going to take a non-cash hit.

[andrewbyles] 15/4/2024 07:54

Trinity’s days as an independent company are now probably limited.

Breakup or sale are the likely options now.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 15/4/2024 07:38

"How is Trinity which operates in one of the most stable, oil friendly jurisdictions with substantial tax cuts and huge proven untapped reserves near an all time low?"Because it is not really that oil friendly a jurisdiction, the tax cuts were not that substantial and the reserves are not that huge anymore. This BoD should have been conserving cash and high grading with a view to leveraging something on Galeota. Instead they have blown millions on hedging and Jacobin. They have got to go.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 15/4/2024 07:10

This latest RNS just confirms the bad trajectory that I have talked about before. If you want to stop the rot you need to kick the bums out.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 14/4/2024 23:55

nocents - 40p is indeed a fair and rational market valuation. The market is no longer giving this inept BoD the benefit of the doubt - entirely rational. It assumes that the lower part of Jacobin is a bust - entirely rational. It assumes that the BoD have not even got round to production testing the Jacobin shallows - on past form a fair assumption. And it assumes that the BoD have indeed been handed the free pass that will keep TRIN on a bad trajectory - on past form a fair assumption.

[aqc888] 14/4/2024 18:24

Media reports seem to suggest Iran has had little success with its strikes and it just wanted to save face after their generals were killed at the Syrian embassy. President Biden has told Israel to take the win and end it. However, personally I think if I were Israel and was extremely unpopular on the global stage at the moment, and had the excuse to batter a neighbouring country who desperately hated Israel and was close to developing a nuclear bomb… I think I’d take the opportunity to bomb Iran big time to take out their nuclear capabilities. It’s not possibly for Iranian/ Israel relations to deteriorate any further, so probably little to lose.

Reported in the news just now…
“A source who is very well informed about the marathon talks that were held this past week said: ‘Had they been filmed and uploaded on to YouTube, there would be 4 million people in Ben Gurion airport today looking for a way to escape from here,’” the well known columnist Ronan Bergman wrote.

[nocents] 14/4/2024 10:59

You read in too much.
I have not really said otherwise. I agree that many/most AIM companies are scams or lifestyle, but many are not. They are just small cap, and it is not fair to throw the baby out.
I don’t believe the bod have been handed a free pass. I believe they are on implicit notice , as I said.
And select a new BOD carefully if these ones go.
Be careful not to read in what is not implied.
And be careful not to wear blinkers that blind you to complexities.
Yes Trin used to be sharp and efficient, but not since Bruce. If shareholders do not oust them after poor reports and weak plans, they only have themselves to blame though.
This time next year Rodney, we will have a better idea. I don’t expect anything from Trin any more….they lost the plot with Jacobin. I don’t expect from Q1 results. I know better. But I am not willing to sell at 40p. I would vehemently disagree if you said that was a fair and rational market valuation. Gervais may have his own agenda, but I do agree that AIM is a witless index.

[nocents] 14/4/2024 10:10

We mustn’t forget that Iran are closely linked with Russia. It is my belief ( and many others’) that Russia was complicit with knowledge of the Iran-supported initial Hamas attack in order to deflect and dilute support for Ukraine. Sadly it has worked. Russia would like an oil spike to further fund the war. Iran are busy trying to acquire and apply technology to build nuclear weapons. An oil spike is not essential to them. They make a fortune exporting millions of drones.
Killing people? All is fair in love and war. All parties( US/Israel/any country) has little morality when it comes to ‘ collateral damage’. I watched Vietnam live. Watched both Iraq wars live. ‘Shock and Awe’ were excuses for random collateral homicide. All parties are guilty, and the history of the UK is hardly ethical. This is why we need to support defence spending and retain nuclear weapons, as we are all potential collateral damage . Iran may be run by nutters, yes, totally deluded. But their killing is no worse than any other country, just for deluded reasons. Blair and Bush caused massive and unnecessary carnage( weapons of mass destruuction based on false evidence). Israel itself is utterly amoral in its ‘legitimate217; war.
All wars are evil,although many are necessary.
But the world can never be stable with countries run by autocrats, like Iran,N. Korea,Russia, Belarus, Syria etc. N..B how they are complicit with each other, sharing oil, technology, etc. It is their twisted mad hunger for power and territory that makes this a constant threat. Sadly the EU and US seem to have lost guts and the plot by failing to support Ukraine fully now. Like Crimea. It will lead to only more problems if/when Ukraine falls. I think the oil price will stay high for some time yet.
Rant over
Back to Trin.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 14/4/2024 09:28

nocents - "I will be holding for true valuation".True valuation is not about previous high watermarks or even a current snapshot. It is about the sum of future prospects. TRIN still faces an invidious fiscal regime and rising costs but, worst of all by far, its inept BoD remains in place, even after the Jacobin debacle. It is a crying shame that these characters have been handed a free pass. The market is punishing this appropriately.It is not that the companies on AIM are generally undervalued. They are just generally awful. TRIN used to be one of the better companies in a bad bunch, but those days are long gone.

[nocents] 13/4/2024 20:56

Interesting that The Times should be printingvthat. I t had certainly concluded the same a long while ago. AIM is a ridiculous index. Its market makers delight in driving down valuations of companies, only to struggle to find shares on good news, leading to ridiculous spikes followed by a drive down again once buying has dried up. This is much rarer on any of the FTSE’s although it is seen in stamp-duty free shares like Glencore or Plus 500 etc. But they have huge volume.
Companies like Trinity will lose 5% on a small sell!!
But soar on demand, when there are few shares available like here.
I expect many people to be selling Trin if it goes up moderately, but I will be holding for true valuation ( even in this scruffy casino index) and I’ll walk with Gervais.

[andrewbyles] 13/4/2024 20:25

Interesting article in The Times about the AIM - see

Having identified problems with AIM shares being significantly undervalued across the board, the article ends on this positive note:

“Gervais Williams, head of equities at Premier Miton Investors, a long-term proponent of smaller listed companies, said it was not surprising that some businesses were leaving Aim. “The UK is cheap, but small caps are disgustingly, absurdly cheap,” he said. “A lot of companies feel that they’re not getting value for all of the extra cost and hassle of meeting the reporting requirements of being on Aim.”

“Nevertheless, he reckons a broad rally in UK-listed shares is coming, with the FTSE 100 index flirting with a record high. This, he believes, will result in a “positive virtuous spiral” that will boost smaller listed companies. “I’m more bullish now than I’ve been for 30 years.””

[nocents] 13/4/2024 18:12

I think the bottom line is that Trinity is low profile and in AIM. Institutional investors are not interested, and Trin shot themselves severely in the foot with Jacobin. They lost the confidence of the private investor and the mm’s just slumped it as they do. I don’t think many people except us have a clue about the nuts and bolts of the company. Most people just want a quick profit asap and out, thank you very much. They probably don’t understand SPT, no hedging, discounted price etc. Even Cavendish think Trin will pay no spt at all in 2024, but I think they may. This quarter is already averaging $76.5. And oil is holding up. Last year had no hedging too but the money was squandered.
Trin need to increase bopd and investor trust. And the dividend. And sell assets in Galeota. Unfortunately management have not shown the greatest competence since BD died . This has wrecked the share price.
I think the big shareholders will have made their feelings known. Newlands owns over 10%. Trin should be marketing Galeota( Perenco are next door), increaing the dividend as promised, and explaining what( if anything) they have learned from Jacobin. The update in about 10 days may be a flop ( Q1 usually is) but ought not to be. No SPT. Decent profit. No capex.
Let’s see if they manage to shoot the other foot or not. Disgrace if they do.
40p( 4p old money) is well below the all-time low in Covid of 55p(5.5p).
I fear a year stuck in the Sargasso with no wind in our sails, but it all comes down to management competence and care. The big holders need to know the plan or should be proactive and move management out if it does not happen. Not yet though. See what 10 days bring. Have no expectations. But the ground is solid and assets plentiful. But this is Trin and it is in AIM. Grab and run index.

[aqc888] 13/4/2024 13:26

Perhaps people underestimate the effect a high oil price will have on Trinity’s profits? Last time the oil price was high trinity had disastrous hedging in place, this time there will be no hedging and much much lower taxes with the recent reforms… By looking at previous profits during high oil prices (and when the taxes were much higher) the picture might be misleading

[nocents] 12/4/2024 20:52

Beacause it is Trinity. And because it is AIM. And because two numpties made two numpty sells today at 41p.
AIM does not like Trin unless there is Trin-specific good news. Not a common event.
But every dog has his day. The time will come because the environment has never been better for Trin, even if its execs could do with going back to geology college.
Iran have to make bellicose noises. If they do anything dramatic, they really will be cooking their own private parts though. Netanyahu is relentlessly proactive. Teheran knows this.

[nafafa] 12/4/2024 20:48

Easy, those with funds to invest steer clear of a company run by management who comprehensively fail their shareholders.

[aqc888] 12/4/2024 20:29

War heating up in Middle East with a clash between Israel and Iran due this weekend. Surprised oil price is only at a 6month high… How is Trinity which operates in one of the most stable, oil friendly jurisdictions with substantial tax cuts and huge proven untapped reserves near an all time low?!?!