Trident Royalties Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 10/4/2024 09:08

Looks primed for a bit of a break higher. Although Thacker Pass is many years out, surely them getting the IRA funding has made that asset worth a lot more/massively increased the chances of it being developed.

[ukgeorge] 10/4/2024 09:01

Just bought 10k @ 35.5p

[donald pond] 09/4/2024 17:15

Trr entitled to 100% of production up to 58.5k oz, so we get the first stuff worth $138m at current prices. That's my understanding anyway

[the deacon] 09/4/2024 12:26

Equinox commences ore processing at Greenstone https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/204785/

[the deacon] 08/4/2024 15:47

Silver continuing to climb from $27. La Preciosa about to come into production at just the right time for TRR

[damayhill] 08/4/2024 15:33

888ICB, whilst it's true that the lithium price in 2024 is not of consequence to the TRR bottom line this year or next, it's also true that the future financial modelling has to be based on some assumption (Tamesis use Lithium Carbonate Price US$20,000/t) and it's also true that the current price has settled below that level (if you can call it settling!) for a good five months now.

I remain very optimistic about TRR and recently added again, but I'm not sure it's fair to say that the current Li price or p1nkfish's observations about it are irrelevant.

[p1nkfish] 06/4/2024 22:13

Good luck and I hope it gives good returns for you.

[888icb] 06/4/2024 20:31

The lithium price in 2024 is of no consequence to TRR as Lithium America will not be producing lithium until 2026. TRR has never expected income from Li this year or next so not sure why you think your comments are relevant. The Gold royalties and takeoffs are producing income and the current high gold price is likely to be sustained according to many analysts and commentators.
The initial production from Thacker Pass is going to General Motors who are their largest shareholder. It will be the case that a minimum lithium price has been agreed to make the project profitable so personally I am comfortable that the Thacker Pass royalty will be a very profitable investment for TRR.

[p1nkfish] 06/4/2024 19:11

I don't think you are necessarily wrong but Li has suffered and when the ultimate sell-off does happen Gold will go down with everything as it always does.


Here are some key points about the recent trends in Lithium prices:

"As of April 2024, Lithium carbonate prices in China are currently trading around 108,500 yuan per metric ton, which reflects a substantial decline of nearly 70% compared to the same period last year.

Goldman Sachs has cautioned that it is premature to anticipate an end to the plummet in prices for battery raw materials. Significant supply pipelines and challenges from Western electric vehicle dynamics could prolong the period of lower prices.
The projected surplus for lithium in 2024 remains considerable, and prices are anticipated to decline by 25% over a 12-month horizon."

[888icb] 06/4/2024 15:49

The Directors clearly believe this is very undervalued. There have been 8 Director purchases this year with 5 of them in March. The current recovery in commodity prices particularly gold, which TRR has much of its current income from, will soon start to show in its financial statements. TRR is very undervalued and it’s time for that to correct.

[damayhill] 04/4/2024 09:51

Just weighing in behind mwj1959, I 100% agree that this is one for the patient and not for the short-termers/traders. I'm happy to take a 10yr view here.

[888icb] 26/3/2024 17:08

Very good podcast and I think anyone interested in TRR’s royalty at Thacker Pass will feel more confident in their investment when they have listened to it. Indeed if you have any investments in lithium you will gain some comfort that the very low price of lithium and lithium equities will recover.

[robertspc1] 26/3/2024 09:14

Recommend the latest Global Lithium podcast which interviews the CEO of Thacker Pass owner LAC. He seems very measured and smart. Also very confident re project and future lithium pricing. All in all reaffirmed my view that TP could be fantastic for TRR in the long term

[donald pond] 26/3/2024 08:13

I'd be quite happy to see them sell on half of the TP royalty.

[mwj1959] 25/3/2024 09:30

This still remains very much a "tomorrow" stock, given that only around 30% of assets are currently generating revenues and its largest asset, Thacker Pass, won't be producing revenues, at an uncertain lithium price, until 2027. So, very much one for the patient, in my opinion. 30 - 40p range for the foreseeable future, barring the lithium price going gangbusters again?

[donald pond] 25/3/2024 09:12

Tbh it should be obvious to anyone that our copper and gold investments are both generating more income and significantly more valuable than they were 6 months ago

[nickelmer] 25/3/2024 08:43

I suspect the next set of Gold Off take numbers may be impressive and management know that

[888icb] 25/3/2024 07:55

RNS this morning announcing more Director buys this time CEO Adam buying 51500 shares taking his holding to 550000 shares.

[robertspc1] 24/3/2024 19:54

My point re institutional shareholders was that not many are buying at the moment while a few are probably forced sellers. That will reverse at some stage but I'm not expecting a big bounce more of a slow crawl up

[jammytass] 24/3/2024 18:33

re rate on cards 60p end of year

[p1nkfish] 24/3/2024 10:12

Few too many shares floating about and not in the hands of strong holders.

Below is APPROXIMATE:

Free Market Shares = 118,462,535
295 days at average daily volume over the past 3 months of about 429K

Value of Free Market Shares = £40,277,262
Free Market Shares are those not with institutions or insiders.

Great for liquidity but needs a few hoovering up to tighten supply imho.

[donald pond] 22/3/2024 09:25

Amati Strategic Metals were once a big holder but that fund has been a disaster and I think is getting lots of redemptions. TRR is frustrating because so many investors in this type of stock want dividends and it is still in growth phase. It should do very well. I'm not sure what more the board can do tbh

[888icb] 22/3/2024 08:50

Your comment about Institutional Shareholders is not accurate. 6 Institutional shareholders hold around 40% of Trident including names like Ruffer and Blackrock World Mining Trust. I agree that when the Directors are buying it’s probably a good time for others to buy.

[donald pond] 22/3/2024 08:47

Sterling weak as well, another tailwind No institutional interest in any U.K. stocks. I would not be surprised if TRR ended up with an MBO backed by a commodity giant tbh.

[robertspc1] 22/3/2024 08:32

This isn't going to move on retail or even director buys. It just isn't on institutional investors radars at the moment and there are probably one or two forced sellers around. But the fundamentals look good especially if the lithium price rebounds. So it is a great time to buy imho