Trident Royalties Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 01/11/2023 18:36

Starting to buy back mine. Liberum assigned a risked NAV of 28p to the gold interests. The Lithium is almost in the price for nothing.

[nickelmer] 01/11/2023 17:20

I think a lot of investors are taking a too short term view on trident, their whole business is based on acquiring a balanced portfolio and that will take several years, both to acquire and for properties to reach production stage, if people are not prepared to hold this stock for at least 3 years then why are they holding it in the first place.

[robertspc1] 01/11/2023 15:59

I think Orion selling is what is causing this weakness. Not sure when that will stop

[trader465] 01/11/2023 15:54

Q3 2023 Activities Update Sounds like some sort of unusual “activity̶1; has take place during the quarter

[riverman77] 01/11/2023 15:45

Feels like a bit of a death spiral - bailed out a while ago at 36p but not tempted to go back in yet. The problem is, the share price really matters for TRR as they need a good rating to issue more stock and grow the company (in turn acheiving a better rating). It's a shame that they don't have more in cashflow producing assets as I'm sure that would help, and I also think they're too concentrated on lithium.

[the deacon] 01/11/2023 14:35

It's difficult for these smaller royalty co's, whose income barely exceeds G&A. You're right, the inflection point comes when Thacker Pass starts to generate cash. Before then it's highly unlikely we'll see a significant increase to the top line. In recent years many of the royalty and streamers have enjoyed significant growth on the back of a very low interest rate environment. With borrowing costs around 10% for the smaller royalty players now, dealflow becomes more expensive. Compare that to the majors who, today, have credit facilities at 3-4% and plenty of cash to play with. Trident needs to continue to think outside of the box when it comes to sourcing deals. Adam and team won't be happy with the slide in the share price though - especially when some recent deals have been financed with Trident stock.

[catabrit] 01/11/2023 12:41

This has no support. I guess I am not surprised. I felt bad and bottled it in the low 40s, taking a big hit on my average cost in the 50s. Recently bought back in at low 30s. Could be a long slog back to the 50s. Reckon we’re unlikely to inflect in any major way until 2025 due to the lack of catalysts.

Anyone tucking this away at this price will be very happy in the years to come I think. But will they hold through the boredom?

[the deacon] 01/11/2023 09:52

I think that's more likely, as giving notice of quarterlies isn't something they'd normally do

[melody9999] 01/11/2023 09:38

I had the Q3 marked for release tomorrow from some previous communication. Last year it was on 1/11. So maybe the company was just flagging a later date to avoid investors thinking there was an issue because it had not been released.

[the deacon] 01/11/2023 08:15

Unusual this side of the pond, however many of the North American royalty players give notice of their quarterly updates.

[swanvesta] 01/11/2023 07:56

Weird RNS. Giving notice of a (discretionary) activities update?!

[robertspc1] 31/10/2023 12:48

Dipping back in. Gold revenues provide a useful risk hedge

[stevenlondon3] 31/10/2023 08:42

Stocks valued on a NAV basis -investment trusts, property etc - have all suffered over the last six months and seen the discount widen.

[riverman77] 26/10/2023 23:09

My worry here is that a small, early stage company such as TRR is reliant on a healthy share price in order to issue new stock and grow (in turn attracting a higher rating and allowing them to grow even more - a virtuous circle). My worry is that the current slump could cause them to stall and leave them sub scale, poorly diversified and with a low rating. They really need some good news to regain some momentum.

[papillon] 26/10/2023 05:41

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Well going by the 14 day RSI they are definitely oversold.

[nickelmer] 25/10/2023 09:59

Donald, my thoughts too, I think the market is overreacting to the lithium price falls and not valuing the gold offtakes correctly, also the whole objective for Trident is that they become a royalty business that has a broad spread of commodities thus reducing risk exposure to one sole commodity such as lithium. Maybe they were overvalued when in the 50's but I suspect they are undervalued now

[donald pond] 25/10/2023 09:55

The gold offtakes were the biggest sources of income last quarter and with gold swinging from 1820 to 1980 recently if any offtakes matured during that period they will have been hugely profitable

[nickelmer] 25/10/2023 09:52

Mainly due to Lithium price falls I suspect, measured from all time low, to all time high they have now retraced 61.8% which would seem like a good entry point/top up level.

[farrugia] 25/10/2023 09:49

why is this down so much!?

[nickelmer] 25/10/2023 09:48

Just added to my holding, initially bought these at 36p in a placing some time back. At this price they now seem to be trading slightly below NAV which does not seem fair value for a company growing as quickly as these guys IMHO

[the deacon] 24/10/2023 22:56

Yup, they're the two main aims. For royalty and streaming companies - scale and diversification are king, and the only real path to the holy grail of a higher multiple and a lower cost of capital. Whilst the sub $500m players wrestle with 8-10% interest on their credit lines, the major royalty co's like Wheaton borrow $bn's at less than half that rate - making deals look more attractive and continuing to grow that bit easier. Trident is a young company, and the management team have their heads screwed on. The Thacker Pass deal is transformational, and will undoubtedly enable the scaling up/diversifying process to rapidly gain pace. That's assuming all goes to plan for LAC and TP, naturally.

[likeawalrus] 24/10/2023 21:47

Nevada’s lithium could revolutionize green energy in the United States
©Provided by The Daily Digest
The global transition to green energy is going to require a lot of critical minerals in order to be successful and chief among the most important chemical elements needed in one known as lithium. But what makes lithium so important?
Lithium is kind of like the oil of the modern era. It is the key component of batteries that will power everything from your future electric vehicle to the smartphone in your pocket, and that usefulness is what makes lithium so important.
Without Lithium, the world that futurists and environmental advocacy groups envision is not possible because of lithium. This might be why Popular Mechanics called the critical chemical element ‘white gold’ and why it is in demand.
Lithium has become one of the most valuable commodities on the planet because of its potential to change our world. But unlike other resources, being used in our renewable future, lithium is limited to what we can find on Earth.
Luckily, our planet has an abundance of lithium littered all throughout its continents but there is a downside to lithium abundance. Much of the world’s lithium isn’t accessible and cannot be mined to help fuel the green revolution.
Popular Mechanics estimated that there were roughly 88 million tonnes of lithium on the planet but added that only about one-third of the supplies were minable by humans, and the issue is compounded by the time it takes to mine.
“In short, Earth is more than capable of supplying all the lithium we need,” wrote Darren Orf. “Getting it out of the Earth, on the other hand, is a whole different story,” and that is why the discovery of lithium in Nevada is important.
The United States hit what Atlantic Magazine called the “lithium jackpot” in Nevada and the discovery may be the largest deposit of the metal ever found. However, the find is more impressive for a much different reason.

[riverman77] 24/10/2023 20:36

The gold exposure looks interesting, but TRR seem a bit too focused on lithium for my liking, which has been weak recently. They still need to scale up a bit and become better diversified.

[robertspc1] 24/10/2023 12:05

Thanks. I read a note yesterday saying currently just over one third of TRR revenue is gold royalties