Trident Royalties Share Discussion Threads

[the deacon] 29/9/2023 19:18

That's excellent news. I also note today that the separation of LAC's Argentinian and US businesses should complete next week. The second tranche of GM's $650m investment was contingent on that occuring.

[gez] 29/9/2023 18:32

Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) +2.2% in Friday's trading, trimming earlier gains of as much as 9.5%, after Bloomberg reported the U.S. Department of Energy is in talks to lend a record $1B to the developer of the Thacker Pass lithium deposit in Nevada.

The Biden administration and Lithium Americas (LAC) are negotiating the terms of an agreement that would fund more than half of the cost of the massive project, according to the report.

The outlay would be the largest-ever loan awarded to a mining company through the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office.

The $2.2B project is considered one of the most promising opportunities in the U.S. to produce lithium for use in electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and wind turbines.

[the deacon] 29/9/2023 13:17

Lithium Royalty Corp making a bid for TNR. TNR have a royalty over the Mariana lithium asset in Argentina - operated by Ganfeng and due to reach first production next year https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230929022499/en/Lithium-Royalty-Corp.-Proposes-All-Cash-Acquisition-to-TNR-Gold-Board-of-Directors

[888icb] 29/9/2023 12:22

The Directors will be very keen to reverse this current downward trend in the sp, which seems entirely unjustified on the basis of the regular positive news flow. The CEO gives regular presentations to keep shareholders fully informed and to answer questions. The Directors need the share price to be much higher than it is currently to trigger their share awards and that hurdle increases each year. I will keep taking advantage of this weakness to top up my holding.

[catabrit] 29/9/2023 11:04

I always get worried from a technical perspective when I read positive business updates and see a bad, downward chart.

Could be a tough 12 to 18 months. I hope I’m wrong.

It’s a shame we’re not closer to that gush of revenue in 2026 from Thacker Pass but it is what it is.

[sarkasm] 24/9/2023 08:03

Midas verdict: Midas recommended Trident Royalties in 2021 at 34p. The shares have risen 29 per cent to 43.5p since then, but should continue to gain ground. Davidson and finance chief Richard Hughes have spent more than £200,000 of their own money acquiring stock in recent months. Investors should take note.

Traded on: AIM Ticker: TRR Contact: tridentroyalties.com or 001 757 208 5171

[888icb] 20/9/2023 23:16

From LSE:
80p+ targetsToday 15:59
Two analyst notes out yesterday plus a rising commodity market with Gold at $1965 & Silver at $23.8 yet TRR drops 2% to 43.5p

TRR is around 5% of my portfolio tempted to add but maybe I'm in enough here as if does hit 80+ it'll be 10% of my portfolio!

GLA

"The royalties over the La Preciosa project provide Trident with exposure to one of the largest undeveloped primary silver resources in Mexico, noted analysts.

Stifel observed that post-interim momentum has persisted with subsequent acquisitions, including the Dandoko gold project in western Mali and the Paradox lithium project in Utah, which offer “potential for near-term revenue”.

Challenging equity and debt markets increased the attractiveness of royalty financing, noted analysts, giving Trident a 'BUY' rating with an 85p price target against a publication price of 46p.

Liberum analysts echoed the above sentiment, stating that Trident is in an “excellent position to sign more deals, with rising cost of finance making royalty financing increasingly attractive”.

Liberum also has a 'BUY' rating on Trident stock, with an 81p price target."

[jammytass] 18/9/2023 07:29

Fantastic RNS this bod know what they are doing
£1 on the cards

[1knocker] 13/9/2023 20:05

I am delighted to see Ruffer with a significant holding. Those boys are pretty shrewd.
It is also encouraging that the recent pull back was so swiftly reversed. And for once i managed to make the most of it !!

I agree about cost of capital, and the significance of time.

For me though, the most notable aspect of the mining industry at present is its discipline. There has been no splurge of high price takeovers and costly exploration projects such as usually occur when miners have money in their pockets.

It is also striking that they are not gearing up to meet an insatiable demand for electrical metals to enable a net zero roll out of renewable energy by 2030. Given the lead time to bring a new mine on stream, that is significant. Clearly they do not think it is going to happen, certainly not on the scale our political lords and masters promise [threaten?]. I watch the miners closely for indications as to how the energy sector is going to evolve. The activities of the vendors of picks and shovels were a pretty good guide to the evolving scale and health of the 19th century gold prospecting boom!

[catabrit] 08/9/2023 15:35

Have voted that post up. I concur on all points.

[dead duck resources] 08/9/2023 15:28

The argument that the underlying mined commodities rise with inflation which royalty owners benefit from while avoiding increased mining costs, is only true to an extent, as the flipside is that rising costs are guaranteed in an inflationary climate while commodity prices will always be volatile. Added to this, high inflation can result in many future mines being put on the backburner and delay cashflows from royalties, so arguably less beneficial for up-and-comers reliant on new mines.

We can't ignore the impact of time value of money either. At 2% inflation, companies were using NPV8 in forward projections, with 7-10% inflation you would need NPV10 or even NPV15 to adjust for an increased required rate of return/higher cost of capital. Considering the long-term timeframe where much of a royalty is a decade or more away, the drop in value at higher NPV is significant. This can only be offset if the price paid for new royalties is discounted accordingly, otherwise TRR will be a poor hedge.

[catabrit] 08/9/2023 14:31

Big 3m odd buy from Ruffer. Now a 5% holder. Makes total sense if you’re worried about inflation and where the world is going (which they are). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Horizon Kinetics on the shareholder register soon, too - particularly as we get closer to 2026. They’re very very bullish on royalty companies.

[husbod] 08/9/2023 13:05

Good news on ALL today. Royalties there could be a good fit, replacing Sonora (assuming Sonora has gone down the pan) but only, obviously, if the terms are right for us.

[glimmergold] 05/9/2023 19:47

... most of the $10m is payable when cash flow arises ... Similar to structuring on dandoko and sonora. BTW, sonora should not be written off ... remember Bacanora? Consider this:

hxxps://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaties/bit/2545/mexico---united-kingdom-bit-2006-

[iantrader2] 05/9/2023 19:08

what does this mean?

[mwj1959] 05/9/2023 18:16

IC article giving it a boost I presume, but its only back to where it was a month ago.

[catabrit] 05/9/2023 14:29

Nice to see this finally catching a bid.

[ccpag] 05/9/2023 13:50

The total 10m payment is in staged payments with clear milestones. You are comparing apples with grapefruits.

[zho] 04/9/2023 15:39

A deep value royalty company offering 70 per cent upside

The company is trading on an unwarranted discount to book value, even though it continues to pull off smart deals

[dead duck resources] 04/9/2023 15:00

Does the video explain the calculation of the price in terms of NPV? Better structured than the last one with the majority payable in the success case but US$10M seems steep at 1/12th the market cap of the ASX company.

[kaos3] 04/9/2023 13:37

video on the recent news



*respect to his strech the balance sheet policy .... good work imho
*he also seems to like the deals he is negotiating --- trr has money and it is the right time in the cycle to buy

[dead duck resources] 04/9/2023 12:28

The out of the money options that vest on price targets are aligned with shareholders, however the CEO has 2.1M options until 2030 with no conditions. An average exercise price of 25p, costing over half a million to exercise, and would be around 70% up at today's price. This answers the query why the CEO has only bought token quantities compared to director remuneration.

[mwj1959] 04/9/2023 10:37

DD...But as per the 22 AP he also has a lot of options that are a long way from being exercisable...
"During the year Adam Davidson was awarded 3,150,000 options which vest and become exercisable in 5 tranches from the date of grant (1 February 2022) with an exercise price of 50 pence and vesting target share prices of 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 pence respectively. The options lapse after the 7th anniversary from the date of grant."
And he's not yet exercised those other options either. I presume they lapse at some point.