Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 03/12/2013 08:18

Hmmm. Glad I sold as posted earlier.

I'm a little concerned here. Net debt has spiralled to £3.6m (against a £10m m/cap), UK conditions are softening and TCN now state that H2 will only produce PBT in line with H1, i.e just £0.2m PBT.

So to increase the interim divi as they have seems a little reckless. I suppose in pure cash terms it doesn't amount to much, but it seems to signify a gung-ho approach which doesn't sit well with me.

I won't be re-entering as I'd planned to now unless there's solid evidence of things improving. If things were not to go as well as hoped in China or the USA for some reason TCN could be in a little trouble imo.

Good luck all.

[the shuffle man] 03/12/2013 07:49

Will this be the last set of weak figures. Manufacturing in Uk and US getting stronger. 30% increase in dividend seems to give some confidence. The company is positioned for growth lets hope the demand comes through from the record number of enquires.Agree with Apad hold but top up on any order announcements

[apad] 03/12/2013 07:30

Soft UK.
Hold
apad

[bdroop] 29/11/2013 14:11

I wait with interest the reasoning behind the sale of Redman. Looking at the buyer ( Russian ) it looks like they could be pursuing their own reasonably aggressive growth strategy - so my wishful thinking is that it was too good an offer for the bod to refuse. But like you I am a little wary of its implications. It's all speculation until we know more early next week

[apad] 29/11/2013 09:36

That peak when the MMs were short of stock I trust, Riv.
The sale of Redman is causing me to fret. The business was standalone, so what do they need the capital for? There was always going to be a lot of work to do in China and the US, so maybe they are needing capital too?
Small shareholders selling regularly.
apad

[rivaldo] 28/11/2013 14:58

I sold a while ago only because I thought there might be a bit of a downturn prior to and perhaps after the 3rd December interims, given the slightly downbeat outlook on profit in the trading statement.

For a while the share price seemed well supported. However, that appears to have ended now and I can now buy back well below my sale price.

I haven't go any doubt that the share price will climb back at some point, but that point may not be for a little while yet.

It's all about the timing....which can go right or wrong.

[apad] 28/11/2013 09:01

Mmmm
"Slightly below expectations" in the last statement and Caterpillar in China under pressure.
apad

[meijiman] 28/11/2013 08:49

But someone has to do it. Agree that the company could be more on the front foot. Broker doesn't seem to do much for them.Still I can wait and hope the outlook statement is positive. I'm very sure they did a good deal in buying the US assets for a good price so hopefully that is now making a contribution.

[apad] 27/11/2013 20:04

Not happy with the lack of news flow (reflected in share price drift).
3rd Dec. is critical.
Keep reminding myself that pipe bending is, after all, only pipe bending.
apad

[meijiman] 27/11/2013 16:43

I believe interims are Dec 3rd -next week. Be good if this could close the discount to Avingtrans which looks unjustified. hopefully a decent outlook statement will send these higher.

[shauney2] 18/11/2013 12:05

Would be good to get a figure on the sale.

[daz] 18/11/2013 08:06

It looks like the Tricorn pig is no more as the company have announced the sale of Redman fittings today, value not disclosed but is a lot less than the the £5-10m hoped for 10 years ago.

Hopefully the company can put the capital to better use.

[wowy] 12/11/2013 21:25

If I recall Pipe horizon was sold in 2004 and the PIV unit which might have been the 'Tricorn Pig' was part of a unit called ISS which was absorbed by Redman Fittings in 06. Redman combined with the Malvern division in 11.

Bottom line is I think the header needs updating as it is a totally different investment today that was presented in Oct 03

[underhill] 10/11/2013 13:43

Nor "Searchwell radar" come to that

[underhill] 10/11/2013 13:41

Re the "Tricorn pig" as mentioned in the header. Can't seem to find any mention of it on company website. Any ideas why not?

[shauney2] 08/11/2013 16:48

We have all done that.
You have got to think that TCN are where AVG were 3 or 4 years ago.I'ts not going to happen overnight for TCN.A play on the experienced management and getting new orders in China and the USA.

Following on from the last trading update I expect the results in December to be mixed.
Bombardier are doing well I believe and I remember Electronica saying that Caterpiller UK were also doing ok back in the summer.

[meijiman] 08/11/2013 15:19

I simply cannot understand why Avingtrans seems to trade on a prospective multiple around twice that of Tricorn. Yes they did take business from Tcn and they may have some medical business but can't see how this justifies the huge disaparity.Was looking closely at Avingtrans at 130p and liked the look of it but decided it was too similar to Tcn to justify taking a new position. Now 180p. doh

[0rb1t] 04/11/2013 07:34

Currently high demand for car parts:

[shauney2] 04/10/2013 10:57

Tricorn Group: Westhouse Securities moves target price from 44p to 50p stays with its buy recommendation.

They are the house broker but that is positive.

"Aerospace, we completed the restructuring of the business in line with lower near term demand. New business is starting to be secured and it is anticipated manning levels will increase through the second half in response to this."

USA, business was in receivership. However some of this business is already starting to return as customers see the investment being made in the North Carolina facility."

Given prevailing conditions for the UK businesses and our investment in both the USA and China, PBT for the half year is expected to be slightly below management's expectations for the period".

The good more than outweighs the not so bad.

[paxman] 04/10/2013 10:01

Tricorn has 3 things going for it which should produce a good return over the next 2 years.

Its EV is low relative to its sales and likely profits.

Now it's international in scope it's a much more attractive supplier to its big international customers. I'm guessing we'll see a good increase in orders over the next few years as customers appreciate they are dealing with a more substantial company.

The management and workforce are very good. The management are way better than usual for a company of this size. The workforce are keen - the US workforce will be aware they almost lost their jobs until Tricorn bought the factory out of receivership and the Chinese work in a state of the art factory under UK standards of employee oversight.

I'm betting in 2014 this good story comes out in the numbers. What price the share then - 50p? 60p? - in 2015 - 70p? 80p? - if they hit their numbers.

GLA

[apad] 04/10/2013 08:49

Mmmmm.
Here is my note on the previous announcement:
"Confident statement plus increase in final div. Need orders to justify spending on US and China."
Since then there was the Caterpillar/ERA debacle that soured C's political relationship with China.
There has been a slowdown in China, the UK aerospace has a gap to fill and the US business is looking for customers who left to return.
TCN is not on my 'to increase' list - it is a hold.
I don't think this is a buying opportunity Riv. It'll be very soggy until the 3 Dec. I reckon.
I think we can ignore all the Tintins chatter; big order news will change sentiment and maybe the best way to measure progress is to look at job vacancies in Derbyshire:-)
apad

[daz] 04/10/2013 08:01

Yes results slightly below management expectations is disappointing but not a disaster but the story is really about the following years to Mar 2015/2016.

It would appear that the US needs to pull in some orders for the EPS forecasts to be met but having stabilised the business, it looks quite possible.

China also looks to have started slowly.

[rivaldo] 04/10/2013 07:25

Yep, looks like things are now turning for the better in the core businesses.

I don't mind PBT being "slightly" below for the historic H1 as this is a developing global story, starting with the forecast 5.7p EPS next year incorporating the growing US and China operations. A few short-termers may get out (though I'd be surprised if there are many in a company like this), but I suspect most investors are here for the medium/long-term.

An MM markdown may be an opportunity given that stock is normally so tight.

[the shuffle man] 04/10/2013 07:14

Looks like first half slightly below expectations but hopefully a better second half.