Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[the shuffle man] 04/6/2013 16:20

The management really have to work hard now to utilise the current capacity esimated at £40-£50m. Agreed if they can do this we will definatley have a muti bagger on our hands.

Aleman - nice forecasr, puts them on a PE of 5.7x which if acheived will be way to cheap for a fast growing company.

[aleman] 04/6/2013 15:46

Looks like I was too optimistic earlier. The £2.4m forecast for 2015 makes for just over 5.4p earnings rather than the 5.5p I suggested. :-)

That "long term" target equates to 11p+

[rivaldo] 04/6/2013 15:43

Cheers Shuffle Man - I note that Westhouse have increased their target price to 44p from 40p.

If TCN achieve their goal of "£50 million of turnover and double-digit margins" we will have a multibagger from here.

[apad] 04/6/2013 14:39

Daz,
Yes, I think the words without the div increase would be pretty meaningless.
I keep reminding myself that all this company does is bend pipes.
apad

[the shuffle man] 04/6/2013 13:46

Just got my order filled in full.

Westhouse broker just brought out a buy note with target price of 44p

[dell1234] 04/6/2013 12:25

Shares mag article on today's results:
http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/tricorns-dividend-delights#.Ua3OY0A3s_w

[daz] 04/6/2013 10:45

The dividend increase is also positive but it is from a very low base

It does seem that the US acquisition has got off to a decent start but there is a lot more to do. hopefully there will be more news at the AGM in September

[apad] 04/6/2013 08:54

Mmm. Nothing very much has changed for me. Cash flow figures show the effect of the changes. Energy sector income weak.
RR stock effect on figures won't be there next year.
China delivering without a hitch is good.
Dividend increase says management confident.
Daz has a point it's the optimistic tone.
But that is not unequivocal (see details on aerospace orders).
So....it's still a bet on management.
apad

[the shuffle man] 04/6/2013 08:44

Been following these for a while and dipped my toe in this morning as the results and outlook look good and they are still on a low rating for a company that looks like its going to increase earnings strongly.

Couldnt get all the stock i wanted.

[rivaldo] 04/6/2013 08:32

Any revised forecasts will be interesting. I may be wrong, but from memory the 3.9p EPS forecast for this year pre-dated the American acquisition?

If so, the strong outlook and the good start in the USA (plus similar in China) may mean that the 3.9p EPS forecast remains unchanged or even gets increased notwithstanding the Rolls Royce contract.

[daz] 04/6/2013 08:09

Yes, the optimism in the statement de-risks the concerns over replacing the Rolls Royce business and the ability to retain customers at the recently acquired US operation.

They do say that Aerospace will see '...revenue reduce through the current year' so that may see the current 3.9p forecast for Mar 2014 reduced a little but still leaves the company rated on a single digit multiple, so there remains plenty of upside.

[aleman] 04/6/2013 08:07

Forecast for 2014 and 2015 should be lifted a bit now from 3.9p and 5.0p to maybe 4.7p and 5.5p. THat should be anough to lift the shares a bit more. I reckon the old high of 45p could still be a cap but it's possible we might get support up to 40p to give a 40-45p trading range. The company has created infrastucture for short term expansion and is still progressing very well on a longer term basis and warrants at least a p/e of 9 or 10 with its very sold balance sheet which should be around £8m without intangibles by the end of the current year. At 30p, I'd guess the current year p/e will probably be only about 6ish on new forecasts. That seems too low.

[rivaldo] 04/6/2013 07:41

Yep, great results well ahead of forecasts. Plus a 50% increase in the dividend, showing terrific confidence.

The contract loss has been well and truly overcome with the American acquisition and the Chinese expansion.

[electronica] 04/6/2013 07:06

Much better results than I expected.

4.02p eps against a broker forecast of 3.1p. This plus a v positive outlook.


The re-rating should continue today.

[pjhutchy] 30/5/2013 23:03

Looks like we may be getting a rerating to a more sensible valuation

[shauney2] 30/5/2013 09:26

Thanks Clausentum.
Its done the trick for the chart.They must be confident to tip them before the results.The last trading statement was very positive.Need to see how the US acquisition and the Chinese start up are bedding in.

[clausentum] 29/5/2013 21:46

Recommended in Precision Guided Investments, part of Moneyweek.

[shauney2] 29/5/2013 08:43

I think your right.Doesn't take much to move the price anyway being so illiquid.

Results next Tuesday.

[hyperboreus] 29/5/2013 08:19

Must have been tipped somewhere this morning!

[rogerrail] 20/5/2013 16:53

Been watching but not buying for quite while, not great news from Caterpillar, add to that the likelyhood of any RR work starting to dry up, not encourgaging me to do so. This is desptite the fact the share price has missed out on the bull run experienced by many engineering shares over the past month or so, otherwise would be tempted to buy in at this level!

[rivaldo] 19/4/2013 12:06

Excellent article ExV, many thanks for that.

[exv] 18/4/2013 19:03

Spoke to management this morning about the global expansion plans and the business in general:



Pretty long post, but hopefully some interesting stuff in there. I'm positive on the business. It seems well positioned and, while obviously not risk free (it is a small cap expanding rather quickly, after all..) you're paying basically net assets for a quality company, earning historically good returns and with clear growth prospects.

[pjhutchy] 10/4/2013 16:00

We should get to 30 soon if the general market remains healthy

[rivaldo] 09/4/2013 12:52

Westhouse's figures have presumably been superceded by today's rather positive statement.

I can't see any material increases in shares in issue, so if this year's results are similar to last year's - as stated today - we should be seeing around 3.7p to 3.8p historic EPS. With a much expanded group and turnover over which to spread overheads now.

[0rb1t] 09/4/2013 12:28

Hi riv, I was looking at Westhouse forecast eps for this year of 3.10p, which would have left only 1p for H2. But I don't know how Westhouse have calculated EPS. But going by the company's guidance of similar levels to last year then the EPS should be higher.