Transense Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 06/3/2016 19:28

10p, actually 5p would be very welcome actually.

[sojourno] 06/3/2016 15:24

pitm... There's no doubt we're undervalued. Discarded and misunderstood in a generally sick AIM market. I hope we both have confidence that things will turn around; and when they do wider confidence should reflect the quite astonishing feat of beating off the bishop debt and looming Chapter 3, and bringing the Co back to a proper enterprise and not just a fix for a family trust.

[sojourno] 06/3/2016 09:31

dnc... Ah yes.. missed that little "1" after the decimal point and before the "9" in the chart in the header!

[piggyinthemiddle] 06/3/2016 09:14

At 20p the company will be valued at circa 100 million? Well,we all can but dream......

[dncleaver] 06/3/2016 02:02

Good post. Thanks.

(But 8.305 x 1.2p = about 10p in old money, not 16.6p.)

Your one-line statement that the PE Ratio "should be ten times" what it is, sounds about right and implies that we should currently be at about 12p, without doing anything else apart from just breaking even!

As it happens, my target now is also 20p, which I think is fairly realistic for the reasons you have given.

[sojourno] 05/3/2016 18:40

I had to look it up and re-do the calcs, but it didn't take long:-
First, for reference:-
Shares in issue pre-bishop: 56,868,166
Shares in issue today: 472,314,428
Dilution factor of 8.30543
Which means we're at the old price of 16.62p

Here's the post I wrote 22nd May 2013 on the topic, for comparison

"If net earnings were at breakeven at £6m then EPS would be 3p and at an share price of 40p the PE ratio would be about 13. A PE looking towards a bright future for a growth Co could be 40, which would give a share price of 120p (PE of 26 about 80p)."

Firstly we have cash (last published) of 4.6m = 0.97p, call it 1p. (per share)

If net earnings were £4.723m (putting us above breakeven) that would be EPS of 1p and a current PE ratio of 2. We should be ten times that, if short term growth is believed to be exponential (and it is) then a PE of 30 or 40 is more appropriate. So 30p is not unreasonable once a profit of a few million is realised. 30p would be a pre-bish price of about £2:40, which is what e-tyre2 was expected to take us to in it's first year.
I think many of us here would have the burden lifted, so to speak, at iro 20p, which is where we probably should be once short term viability without further considerable dilution is confirmed.

[dncleaver] 05/3/2016 01:05

Sojourno: To save me searching for figures and doing the calculations, which it sounds like you have already done, what is the overall "factor" that needs to be introduced to take account of dilution since the pre-Bishop days?

Am I right in then thinking that your apparent optimism is loosely based on dividing some previous high share-price figure by that factor, to give a number that you think could be achieved if we had the same level of market sentiment?

If so, that sounds logical!

What is the number you arrived at?!!

[sojourno] 04/3/2016 20:34

Millions in profit won't be hard to achieve when/if it all comes together.
The global picture is diabolical though, I just hope manu's and producers realise the value in creating value and innovating this time.
(The UK ranks #2 in the WIPO rankings for innovation btw)

[piggyinthemiddle] 04/3/2016 17:36

Love you to be right but we`re down to a penny a share so can`t see that as getting off lightly and we would have to make millions in profit to achieve a decent figure. We can`t break even yet!

[sojourno] 04/3/2016 17:26

Don't worry, it'll move when the time comes. If you consider the hammering that AIM stocks have taken over the last few months/year we've also got off pretty lightly (that isn't to ignore our proceeding retreat!).
Do the calcs, shares in issue now and pre-bish and you'll find a decent figure is quite in reach, and we're already massively under valued.

[piggyinthemiddle] 04/3/2016 17:05

No,unfortunately. Too much dilution!:-((

[dncleaver] 04/3/2016 16:45

FFS .... Is this EVER going to go anywhere?!!

:-(

[dncleaver] 04/3/2016 16:43

Whooooohooooo!! .... 1.2p (again) .... we're on a roll!!

[sojourno] 04/3/2016 11:44

Such things are more likely to be a distraction and draw on resources, methinks.

[cougar99] 04/3/2016 09:12

let's hope they decide they need tyre sensors next and snap-up TRT :-)

[major courtenay] 03/3/2016 11:23

Thanks. My shorthand made it 400k, but I see your point. I might query the conclusion on the grounds that historical income has been sufficiently lumpy to discount reading too much into the (relatively) modest jump. Hoping I'm wrong.

I see that Finncap have reduced their forecast to 2.7p. Beginning to be hardly worth the candle if we believe them. What'll it be next time? 1.9p?!

I think we need formal recognition and RNS on the sawsense developments, (how often have we heard a similar story?) and until then, there's not much to shout about so not as upbeat as some here.

[amt] 03/3/2016 07:46

Major I was surprised when I calculated the 300k. prior full year was 1.2m and first 6 months of that year was 900k

[major courtenay] 02/3/2016 22:55

Hi amt, where did you get the £300k for the previous 6 months? TIA, MC.

[amt] 02/3/2016 22:05

Turnover for the previous full year was 1.2m and the previous 6 months 300k, so 1.0m for 6 months hints at a turnaround.

[peterblok] 02/3/2016 18:17

Although not earth shattering figures, they aren't that bad (read the figures Re1dy!), and I'm surprised the share price hasn't moved a little bit up on their "steady as she goes" results and message. Minimum 2 years worth of money which should enable the company to "make or break" IMHO. Will hold!

[sojourno] 02/3/2016 16:27

Seems like realism.
Some good grounds for optimism in there though, including a shift from R&D to commercialisation.

[amt] 02/3/2016 14:34

Difficult to know whether the caution in the statement is optimistic, pessimistic or realistic. At least the wildly optimistic statements they made in the past has given way to something more measured and they are not spending money all over the place. Perhaps good to have that new Director on board to make sure they don't waste our hard earned cash.

[gnnmartin] 02/3/2016 12:27

The last 9 months have been very disappointing. The interim results were in line with that disappointment. Still, we look as though we are spending about £1.25m per year, and with the cash levels that gives us 3 more years to get traction. One or two swallows can be seen: Lex of the FT comments that the FTSE all world mining index is up a third over the last 6 weeks, and copper prices are at the highest level for over 3 months. Antofagasta are big miners in Chile, so hopefully they might be one of our prospects.

Time to put my head back in the sand.

[amt] 02/3/2016 11:58

It could be capitalised with book keeping and court approval. They could then pay dividends, that would be a miracle.
That deficit shows how much money they have spent over the last 15 years, let's hope it eventually returns 20 or 30 million in profits to justify where they have invested it.

[dieseltaylor] 02/3/2016 11:48

Very fair. I am encouraged.