Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 15:36

Come on, there wouldn't be a market if there were no contrarian views. If you've ever played poker you'd know that you don't make money unless there are fish at your table.

[michaelmouse] 06/10/2016 15:32

Adam and blondeamon succinct and to the point. Sadly, advfn's BBs deteriorate further every day.

[michaelmouse] 06/10/2016 15:27

You spend and awful amount of time on these boards if you're running a business. Get back to work otherwise it's your business that will suffer ;)

Cheshire is a even longer term holder than I am, and is just pointing out that you don't know what you're talking about, although it doesn't seem to put off the vast majority of eeediots on these boards spouting nonsense.

Incidentally, please feel free to enlighten us with the type of business you run. Is it linked to misinformation by any chance? ;)

Seriously though, what's the name of your business?, I'd hate to make the mistake of investing in it with you in charge.

[adamb1978] 06/10/2016 15:27

Agree blondeamon. Comments like 'Just saying, my freind' are enough to tell me that he's a wind up even without the other stuff

[harrison15] 06/10/2016 14:48

CheshireMoggy,

Please do not become agitated with things you do not like to hear.

I thought these BB were suppose to let people air their views, without being jumped upon.

Please ignore my previous comments if you cannot read without agitation or vexation.

Please remain an investor in Trak, your choice.

Yes, I do the numbers in my business and our margins are holding nicely, infact net profi increased - thank you. JW is forecasting a £ 0.5 m drop in profits on the exchange rate....... go on then - pull the other one.

[cheshiremoggie] 06/10/2016 14:31

Harrison15

You say you are busier than ever - great, so are TRAK.

You say you buy in Euros and Dollars - your costs have therefore gone up - this is a fact is it not?

Therefore your "profitability" has gone down (or gone up less quickly) than it would have done - this is also a fact for you as well is it not?

Surely you know these facts in your business, or dont you deal with the numbers?

CM.

[cheshiremoggie] 06/10/2016 14:27

I also have to take issue with the acquisition issues that harrison15 raised.

Specifically the "disparate sectors" comment.

Trak/Route Money/DCS are all in (almost)exactly the same sector.
That is the business of tracking the activity of vehicles.

DCS in particular was a brilliant buy - have you noticed the proliferation of dashcams recently - dashcam evidence has recently been accepted in legal disputes - I foresee dashcam equipped commercial vehicles getting lower insurance costs due to the lower cost of determining blame and what happened in an incident/crash.

Route Monkey - its no good just knowing where your vehicles are - thats almost a toy in terms of function - you need to know they are on the most efficient route and that any traffic jam/change in priority/breakdown/crash affecting any one of your vehicles is reflected in the routes of all the others.
Maybe thats "easy"with a fleet of 3 vans - not so easy with a fleet of 300 or 3000.

Combine telematics/cameras/routing algorithms into a modular integrated product offering and (imho) you have a possible winner of the telematics race on your hands.

The company have said they are working on this integration right now....

CM.

[harrison15] 06/10/2016 14:27

Brexit ??? I am in a similar industry, and to be honest, it is busier now than before the referendum and by the way i buy in Euros and dollars too. So Brexit, dollar...whatever, smoke and mirror excuses if the numbers don't materialise - they certainly haven't in their first 6 months......like I say I hope I am wrong.... but 'I'm Oot'

[blondeamon] 06/10/2016 14:06

Just spouting ignorance.

RM will make 3m sales and 1m profit this year....it's insane to say they cannot control it when it practically runs itself and is cash generative. They all are, except Roadsense which we don't know anything yet.

Can't wait for QTX results and how big their hit from Brexit is. I'm sure they'll just go up again.

[harrison15] 06/10/2016 13:45

Just saying, my freind

[michaelmouse] 06/10/2016 13:28

Post 898 - I think you've missed the point about the acquisitions. They've integrated them nicely and they dovetail with the group offering perfectly. They've already been earnings enhancing. Still each to their own. Excellent organic and acquisitive growth to date.

One of the biggest arguments to invest here is the recurring revenues generated from the devices they keep adding. Underpins earnings visibility.

[martinthebrave] 06/10/2016 13:03

I may be wrong but this looks pretty close to the floor for this particular sell off. Quite a bit of resistance at 155p - 157p. Sellers have started to be quickly mopped up by buyers and we may get a retrace partially back up from here. Need positive news of course for anything decisive.

[harrison15] 06/10/2016 12:54

Well guys; IMHO:

I did buy stock at £1 and sold at £2, and then watched it go to £4 - never mind, but I sold for this reason: This is an acquisition strategy gone mad. There is one guy heading this and running the show - JW. How can anyone hold together 2-3 acquisitions; disparate sectors in multiple locations and believe they can mold them altogether, let alone run them - these are small privately owned businesses with their own style and approach - been there, done it. I think you will find profits dipping over the next 12 months and beyond and things being very tricky to keep all glued together. If this should happen then I think the strategy will be to to raise money and buy more businesses to muddy the waters and hide the gloom of dwindling control and profit - I maybe wrong and I hope I am. Just saying....

[adamb1978] 06/10/2016 12:30

I've also bought more in this period of weakness. The share price is down roughly 25% now since the September TS and PE is at crazy levels.

Loss-making small-caps which are growing the top-line at say 30%+ p.a. often trade at at least 3x-4x sales given that they're building a meaningful position from which they can then make decent profits. TRAK are already profitable today and paying a dividend so for them to trade at nearer 1.5x FY17 EV/sales just doesn't make any sense.

Appreciate that the current half year profits are disappointing however if you look at these growth companies there is often a 6m period in the period say 3-4 years where such a dip happened.

Not sure there is much downside from here and the opportunity to add more in this price range is great for holders regardless of time horizon

Adam

[sheep_herder] 06/10/2016 12:02

Good post Moggie.

[cheshiremoggie] 06/10/2016 11:59

When the share price here went significantly below £2 it set off a lot of peoples stop loss triggers imho.

The drop in the pound and associated profit downgrade means a period of uncertainty, at least until the company announce its results and quantify the cost implications better than they have so far.
They will also hopefully outline a strategy for mitigating the currency risk which should limit the fallout from sterlings drop.

Markets hate uncertainty and trak is a victim of that but its not unusual.
Personally I think the reaction is well overdone - thats not unusual either.

For longer term investors some points to remember might be :-

The company is profitable
It is growing rapidly organically and by acquisition and is still profitable
It pays a dividend
It is in a market that still has a lot of potential for growth and change.
It has a well thought out and integrated set of products that many of its competitors lack

Of course there are downsides as well but if you dont want risk put your money into a high interest account with a bank and earn 1%.

CM.

[salpara111] 06/10/2016 11:41

It would certainly be very helpful if they were able to announce a new material sized contract win here.

[pj 1] 06/10/2016 08:16

If there are any large shorts again, then they would have been opened pre TW's attack IMO. DYOR

[78paul] 05/10/2016 22:06

with regards to 'short attacks', ive been watching level 2 for a while and the only people selling are scared private investors, a grand here, a grand there. 3 or 4 sells at 170p moves the bid down to 165p and so on.

so there is no 'short attack' going on, this is purely driven by sentiment.

[michaelmouse] 05/10/2016 16:39

No doubt. Best wishes.

[r1singson] 05/10/2016 16:35

MM - no not at all, I love hearing people's anecdotes successful or otherwise. I think your rules are great especially regarding tipsters! You are also one of the very few that admit to not having stop losses - fair play - I actually do have some sympathy with this principle believe it or not. I will be following traks progress still and as I say I think it is an excellent long term hold if you can afford to just wait it out. I feel there is a lot of uncertainty around the world markets in general and have been really upset with the "contributions" of discredited and dishonest tipsters. I'm sure our paths will cross some time in the future.