Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 16:17

That's a fair point dc2. Not too sure how far it holds in the telematics industry though. I'd expect churn to be low if this was the case.

[dc2] 06/12/2019 16:09

I have no idea about the churn rates it was just an example. However, from first hand experience I know that once you start to integrate your system into theirs (a client) then it is difficult for them to move without disruption.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 16:04

dc2. If clients were locked into the system then churn rates would be low. But the fact is churn rates aren't low.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 15:56

The Intelematics Australia deal was signed in June 2018. The LexisNexis deal was signed in September 2018. Times were good then? Was that really the case? Good in what sense?

I'm not convinced that you're on anything else but a wind.

[dc2] 06/12/2019 15:53

I tend to agree with Blondeamon et al that any contracts are likely to be near cost price. Is this a problem? I am not so sure:

1) It keeps the manufacturing staff occupied and paid for (one of my major concerns).
2) It allows for a land and expand business strategy. Even if it is just contract extensions I have noticed things come down in price so margins can be improved (take data packages as an example) and more so when the client is locked into the system [I went to a meeting with a large distributor whose management wanted a cheaper solution - they lost out to the staff liking the existing system, training costs etc].
3) It allows them to give re-assurance to potential new clients (hey look, the AA use our product).

FWIW, I do think the BOD are greedy and arrogant. If you give them the benefit of the doubt and assume the events that unfolded 12 months ago were out of their control then it still begs the question of why so much remuneration. I also think that the first casually of a BOD change should be Maddie (big data director). A company this size needs one technical director at most, not two. I would also question why MW and JW's roles couldn't be merged (sorry Trakm8Fan if you are one of them) - you're going to tell me that JW is part-time.

[trakm8fan] 06/12/2019 15:46

dave2608 - These contract were all signed when times were good so why would we assume now that the margins involved are tiny or thin. Therefore in comparison to thin they are juicy.

[knowbodyyouno] 06/12/2019 15:21

Not that there's any evidence to suggest this.

[knowbodyyouno] 06/12/2019 15:20

What I meant was, that the contracts in the suck it or see type scenario you mention had no led to greater orders.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 15:17

Trakm8fan "I still firmly believe that the Large Scale Contracts are indeed Juicy". You're on a wind surely?

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 15:13

Knowbodyouknow re your post 4543. "Perhaps these contracts don't exist or have been cancelled or have failed." A contract is legally binding. You can't just cancel a contract. There will be penalties incurred. At least there will be with any sensible contract. However from what I recall (and I stand to be corrected) with the likes of LexisNexis et al, there weren't any large scale contracts, just contracts to test a small number of devices initially with an option for more to roll out later on. A suck it and see if you like.

[trakm8fan] 06/12/2019 15:06

I still firmly believe that the Large Scale Contracts are indeed Juicy and will definitely happen or are happening. My point of view is the recent 80% collapse in price - Blonde's numbers - came about because Direct Line started shipping less. Once the Large Scale Contracts start shipping and manage bridge this gap then we are back to pre 80% fall levels and therefore should be back on trak to get back to pre 80% fall share price

[dc2] 06/12/2019 15:06

Tracking is two a penny, cameras equally.... the strength Trakm8 has over a lot of other companies (IMO) is that its insight portal is comprehensive and integrated. Any one who went to the CV show would have noticed VisionTrack. Whilst things may have moved on since I used them they use a bespoke portal for some cameras, a Chinese windows app for others (Ceiba2) and tracking is basic. Concepts such a remote tacho download were simply not there - unlike Trakm8 who offer it all under one roof. Bridgade and others also use Ceiba 2. In essence, some of the competition appear to be box shifters (mainly buying cameras from Streammax) - perhaps this is a better strategy but it does make it more complicated for the end user.

I think Trakm8 are trying to provide a quality and all encompassing service (ok, they may be a tad expensive). I will regret saying this but the Apple of the industry. That said, SamSara and the new breed are trying this approach.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 14:52

If there is the possibility of as Trackm8fan puts it "large scale contracts about to ship" then what do you suppose will be the margins on them? They have to be paper thin surely? Telematics is a low barriers to entry business. Unless of course Trakm8 has developed some USP from all this R + D spent and can now charge a premium. It's news to me if they have but I stand to be corrected.

[knowbodyyouno] 06/12/2019 14:51

I agree they can't be trusted.

But we don't have sight of the numbers, to know sure that they will be worse than expected.

At least I don't...

Perhaps you do, but there seems to me to be an incredible amount of guess working going on.

[knowbodyyouno] 06/12/2019 14:38

Perhaps these contracts don't exist or have been cancelled or have failed.
Perhaps the jig is up.
Perhaps the banks are about to call time.
Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
The point is, we don't know and won't know until they update the market.
Let's hope the update is clear, frank and honest (a big ask, I know).

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 14:28

Hmmmm these mysterious large scale contracts about to get shipped.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 14:26

Trak have said it's going to be a loss. The question is how much working capital will they have left before the cavalry arrives in the form of as Trakm8fan puts it "large scale contracts begin shipping". What happens if the cavalry doesn't turn up? I suspect the bank here is beginning to get a little twitchy.

[knowbodyyouno] 06/12/2019 14:13

It sends a mixed message. Apparently, nothing has required an urgent update - like last year, when they reported a PW early - so far, which seems to suggest no major surprises in the results. We know H1 is going to be a loss - the questions are - what kind of loss (i.e. in line with market expectations) and what does H2 look like?

Hopefully, we'll get these answers next week. Unless someone here has inside information, we don't know very much about how the year has gone so far - looking at their competitors isn't as far as I'm concerned a particularly accurate yardstick against which to measure Trak's thus far undisclosed performance.

[dc2] 06/12/2019 14:04

I'm not completely in agreement with you Trakm8Fan but I do believe that delay equals more certainty about what to expect for the full year than if they had announced it last month.

[trakm8fan] 06/12/2019 13:58

I think the news being delayed is good. This gives us a higher probability that the news will contain information about these new large scale contracts having begun shipping or some concrete dates around when they will.

[dave2608] 06/12/2019 13:22

Bold decision 40toolong. However I think you've called it right. I could be wrong but it's hard to see anything other than another heavy loss. It will be interesting to see how much R + D they've capitalised so as to make the loss appear smaller. Or will they have pared R + D back? They have indicated that this is not their intention. If indeed it is a dire first half, will they continue to spin or just be brutally frank for once? If they decide to continue to spin then I'm struggling to see what possible scenario they can concoct that will be remotely credible. It's going to have to be storytelling par excellence.