Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[knowbodyyouno] 21/11/2019 17:01

And the price didn't move.
Yet the other day, it was down 7/8% on around £1,200 worth of sells.
Strange how these mms operate. I've given up trying to find a pattern.

[trakm8fan] 21/11/2019 16:25

£15000 worth of buys today - no sells.

[trakm8fan] 20/11/2019 13:27

The Market can occasionally get it wrong. Look at how Blonde has gone from Raging Bull to Savage Bear. If the Market thinks the same as Blonde then I believe it to be wrong. If the Market is just waiting to see profit making numbers rather than loss making then it will need to wait longer. If the Market doesn't believe these numbers will ever come then I believe that what makes this a great opportunity because I believe there is a very high chance these numbers will get a lot better soon. If the Market has no patience then I'm happy to be different and just wait.

[davr0s] 20/11/2019 12:58

Yeah but the market already knows this and price ain't moving up. Market is always forward looking. Have no idea where price is going to go from here (and nor does anyone else)

[trakm8fan] 20/11/2019 12:51

I'm pleased to have sparked some debate here. Unfortunately the person calling me a moron refuses to read my responses. I think this says a lot about that person but I'm not into personal attacks. My view here is simple. There are 3 or 4 new insurance contracts which have not started shipping yet. When they do this will increase volumes and margins obviously. If the new contracts ship as much as we were shipping last year then this will obviously double the amount of insurance revenues and connections. If these new contracts ship twice as much as we were shipping last year then we will have tripled the amount of insurance revenues and connections. I dont need a mathematics degree to understand that.

[dc2] 20/11/2019 11:30

Here is an idea for an aggrogant BOD; a corporate restructuring, sack the little people and reward the BOD with a pay rise.

[dc2] 20/11/2019 11:26

What you are saying makes a lot of sense e.g. BOD change and factory closure but it makes you wonder why the BOD can't see that (in particular the fresh blood - I do not mean the family ones). Why would a BOD, earning a very nice salary, want to give that all up by going bust - surely it makes sense to get rid of the little people first.

The obvious reason for this disparity is that we do not know what the BOD knows. For example, can anyone on this board give the utilisation of the factory or know the extent of the AA contract etc, no.

Whilst I am nursing heavy losses (and this may be clouding my judgement) I am optimisation that things will get better - let's hope I have not jinxed it.

[dc2] 20/11/2019 10:46

I just do not agree with you about your make or break options. If they controlled their spend you would think they can survive on their revenue. I expect to see massive cuts in r&d and manufacturing before going bust. Is this what Quartix do (live off existing contracts and minimal spend)?

[knowbodyyouno] 19/11/2019 18:18

I've absolutely no idea.
Was just repeating what I've heard.

[davr0s] 19/11/2019 17:38

No it's that all trades (buys with corresponding sells) occurred above the mid price. People waste their lives talking about buys and sells on bulletin boards and it's completely misplaced

[davr0s] 19/11/2019 17:37

lol - you know it's utter nonsense that

[knowbodyyouno] 19/11/2019 17:32

The conspiratorial among us, might suggest the '1' trade indicates an RNS in the near future - perhaps even tomorrow. I've heard that before elsewhere.

[trakm8fan] 19/11/2019 17:08

All buys today. No selling.

[dc2] 19/11/2019 11:16

My conspiracy theory is that you are MW, son of JW ;)

Another conspiracy, a single share purchase (like the one that has just happened) - got to be a broker but why? A test or a message?

[trakm8fan] 19/11/2019 07:55

The last director type buy was Raza and it caused more negative comments than positive because it was 'only' 20 grands worth. Personally I think he was just using his annual isa allowance but these forums love conspiracy theories.

[knowbodyyouno] 18/11/2019 19:19

It's a good point re the directors, but to be fair, they have a lot of skin in the game already. Some of it at much higher prices. Is it not also a closed period because of the imminent H1 results?

[squeamish1] 18/11/2019 17:53

Ingenie is a little worrying if they are a bellwether of market appetite for 'black box insurance', according to their filings they had 45,000 live policies at Dec-16 and managed to get down to 23,500 in Dec-18.

Anyway I thought real prize in terms of profit was fleet, I think the term 'juicy margins' used to be common around these parts in relation to fleet.

To be honest at 15p this looks like a worthwhile bet - but it would be a bet - although I'm wondering where the directors are at these prices. Would be lovely to see Mark Watkins putting some of his £150k salary where his mouth is.

[trakm8fan] 18/11/2019 15:47

Some buys today. More than sells. Its not all doom and gloom.

[knowbodyyouno] 18/11/2019 14:21

I think Ingenie specialises in black box insurance for young drivers. Lexis has a broader appeal. I would like to know who the are the other 2 'significant' insurers are, as mentioned in the Sep update. Given that the AA is breakdown, that means there are two we know little about. Let's also not forget about EE, which is a recent contract. Wonder how that is faring.

[trakm8fan] 18/11/2019 14:01

If we believe the Blonde then - Insurance has 50% churn rate, to get 2 devices growth you need to sell 3. I'm not sure what that means. Insurance surely runs for a year from shipping. In their video they said they had 100000 so if they are all turned off after a year they need to ship 100000 new every year or 2000 per week. If the churn rate means they turn off after a year and Blonde is right and they churn 50% then they keep 50000 in year 2 and lose 50000. So they only need to ship 50000 in year 2 to match their number of 100000. Thats 1000 per week just to stand still. Lets not forget they generate a fee for every one they ship so even if they all churn every year they are still getting paid. If 3 new insurance companies start shipping in the same volume then we go from 1000 per week to 4000. We have no idea how the profile or ratio of policies with black box to total policies looks for these new insurance companies. They could specialise in black box insurance and it could be a much higher % of their total volumes or it could be less. There is no reason to assume two different insurance companies both have the same percentage of black box business compared to total policies.

[knowbodyyouno] 18/11/2019 11:35

How many do DL ship? Not sure we even know that do we?

News this week or next, I suspect.

[trakm8fan] 17/11/2019 13:49

We already know they have done deals with Lexis, Ingenie and another insurance company. Why cant these all ship as many as Direct Line or more?

[squeamish1] 17/11/2019 12:36

Two contracts double or triple the size of the largest U.K. motor insurer? Your optimism has become fantasy.