Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[gopher] 14/1/2025 16:33

Good post - nobody is happy with AIM valuations but the fall here is a more significant than some negative posts on BBs

[grabster] 14/1/2025 11:42

"... train operating companies would be brought into public ownership as their contracts expired, a process that is expected to be complete by October 2027."
"The first operators to be renationalised will be South Western Railway (my local network) (on expiry of current contract on 25 May 2025) and c2c (20 July 2025)"
(wikipedia)



Tracsis is engaged with some, not all, but obviously won't be signing up any others among them now. How much work (if any) they will get from GBR is yet to be seen. Some have suggested that GBR recruitment adverts indicate they might take such systems in-house.

Tracsis has halved in value since May.

[grabster] 13/1/2025 12:47

Tracsis own presentation of 2024 vs 2023 figures show:

Revenue - down 1%
Adjusted EBITDA - down 20%
Adjusted Profit - down 25%
Operating Profit - down 87%
Profit Before Tax - down 86%

They admit to having misjudged the impact of the UK election timing, and misjudged the likely conversion of US pipeline opportunities. They tell us they will be cutting their cloth by abandoning certain services during 2025. Having made 17 acquisitions over the past few years, have they hung onto some surplus staff too long? Or got rid of good ones too soon? They employ upwards of 500 but are talking of pushing work offshore.

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Is Tracsis plc's (LON:TRCS) Stock Price Struggling As A Result Of Its Mixed Financials?
Simply Wall St
January 11, 2025

[grabster] 13/1/2025 12:26

chasbas - its market position is not a good selling point if a big part of it in the UK is disappearing with the shift to GBR, and the exit of Tracsis' rail franchisee clients from the scene.

The foothold it has in the USA is more of a very small fingerhold, which isn't going to come to much on its own over there. They only splashed around £10m for it if I recall but have (imo) wasted money on a vanity change of logos and company name from a known one to their unfamiliar one. They should have run it awhile first. Not gonna get a good price if forced to sell it off with an unrecognized name.

Away from rail, is it making any big progress in other divisions - fast enough to outweigh the shrinkage? If it is, it needs to shout about it. At the last count they did still have £20m cash and no debt.

With 17 past acquisitions they are talking of more to come and appointing a new chief of M&A as a priority this year - so maybe they are hoping that growth by acquisition will compensate any dullness in organic growth? I am always wary of companies assembled from a whole boxful of Lego bricks. There only needs to be the odd mismatched brick for it to wobble.

[chasbas] 13/1/2025 11:38

adminck
Thanks for your comments, much appreciated.
I took my eye off the ball on this and given the share price performance you are probably right.
By the way, Zeus has TRCS as one of its top picks for 2025! Mainly due to the share price derating.
Do you or anybody else think it is a takeover target? Isn't its software and market position worth anything? I'm not sure I should sell at 442p bid given the Feb trading update may be OK??

[simon gordon] 10/1/2025 18:47

adminck,

Thanks for sharing, very helpful.

[adminck] 10/1/2025 18:07

Still got plenty left to fall. I genuinely think these will go pop.

I stand by my method of rigourous monitoring of LinkedIn for staff movement. Their downsizing was an absolute disaster and has sent them into a death spiral. They've lost almost all of their SMEs, even some of their senior non-statutory directors have departed, some of them from allegedly profitable parts of the business (like smart ticketing and delay refunds). Most of their former staff have joined competitors, or worse, their former customers, the train operators! Not so sure they'll be very quick to recommend their former employer, especially when the people who are left there seem somewhat inexperienced. Aside from SMEs, I saw LinkedIn post last week from their most experienced and senior technical resource who had been there right from the very beginning - stating he was leaving and clearly looking for work.

It looks as though they've tried to backfill with cheaper, more generic roles and directors - who frankly don't understand the market they've playing in.

One of their so called "Managing Directors" appears to have had 3 different roles there since January 2023!

Wouldn't surprise me if they're looking at offshore development, but that really would kill the business - you simply can't build this kind of very bespoke and technical software overseas, especially when you've lost all/most of your SMEs and the senior technical leadership. I've tried to build software before in other heavy industry, and you need the technical teams to fully understand the context of what they're working on - you can't understand the modern British railway environment from Bangalore or Minsk.

North America is very much a case of eggs in baskets - and I suspect there is a reason why the competent founder John McArthur steered clear and divested of some of the other overseas activities long ago.

Some rabbit out of the hat acquisition or merger aside, the share price is not going to organically recover.

[grabster] 08/1/2025 20:29

And 490 has gone. Fallen 50% in a year.

Optimists can point to several impressive upward surges the way - and there might always be another around the corner - but for longterm investors, despite all those surges, all gains made in the past 7 years are now wiped out.

[grabster] 08/1/2025 12:13

And now testing that 490 level. If that goes, the shares fall to a level last seen 7 years ago.

[grabster] 07/1/2025 13:07

Retesting 500 as a floor (28 Oct closed at 490)

[grabster] 06/12/2024 11:27

"According to the BBC, the fault lies within the system at the national telecommunications hub in Doncaster. It failed to connect on start-up in the early hours of the morning. Using a customised fixed telecoms network alongside mobile technology, its processes include journey registration, operational messaging and prioritising driver-signaller communications. Those involved range from drivers and signallers to managers, controllers and maintenance staff." (The Standard)

[grabster] 06/12/2024 09:54

20 minutes ago:

"A railway journalist says he's not experienced an issue like in 40 years of working in the industry.

Speaking to Sky News, Nigel Harris says the communication system fault that has hit this morning is "very, very rare".

He suggests the fault could have come from a technical problem or even an attack on the network by hackers.

"We just don't know," he says.

[grabster] 06/12/2024 08:35

I don't imagine that this morning's nationwide chaos on the rail system has any direct connection with Tracsis. They may even be the hero in helping get round it. But sure to be a few nervous investors requiring confirmation of that.

"The BBC understands that the cause of a nationwide delay to train services across Britain lies within an on-board communication system known as the global system for mobile communications – railway (GSM-R).

The technology uses digital communications between trains and signallers to improve safety for passengers.

While it works in a similar way to mobile phones, the digital system is not reliant on commercial mobile phone operators. The rail network has its own contained phone and mast system.

One rail source told the BBC that "the system isn't connecting easily". There is a workaround that staff can use but it takes time.

We've also been told that once the system is operational "there are no problems", but investigations are underway in to why the GSMR network is experiencing problems."

[tomps2] 04/12/2024 09:42

Tracsis (TRCS) Full Year 2024 results presentation - November 2024

Tracsis CEO, Chris Barnes and CFO, Andrew Kelly present the group’s results for the year ended 31 July 2024, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[alibongo17] 26/11/2024 07:40

This is fantastic news this morning. Providing the back office to facilitate pay as you go across UK rail is massive.

[grabster] 21/11/2024 16:45

- same again today. Suits me.

[grabster] 20/11/2024 14:43

ticking down in repeated 5p increments since midday

[jolomo] 20/11/2024 13:07

Think about time the CEO moved on. Last 5 years performance is pitiful.

[tomps2] 20/11/2024 09:08

Tracsis CEO, Chris Barnes and CFO, Andrew Kelly provide an overview of the group’s results for the year ended 31 July 2023.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[grabster] 20/11/2024 09:04

Financial Results (£'m)
2024
2023

Revenue
81.0
82.0
-1%

Adjusted EBITDA *
12.8
16.0
-20%

Adjusted EBITDA* %
15.7%
19.4%
-370bps

Cash
19.8
15.3

Adjusted diluted earnings per share *
25.1p
38.5p
-35%

--------------------------------

Statutory Results

Operating profit
1.0
7.3
-87%

Profit before tax
1.0
7.1
-86%

Basic earnings per share
1.6p
22.8p
-93%

Final dividend per share
1.3p
1.2p
+8%

Total dividend per share
2.4p
2.2p
+9%

[grabster] 20/11/2024 08:46

And lossmaking by Xmas?

[grabster] 20/11/2024 08:14

Leeds-based transport technology provider, Tracsis, says its performance has been “disappointing overall” as it publishes its audited final results for the year ended 31 July 2024.

The business recorded revenues of £81m (2023: £82m) and a pre tax profit of £1m (2023: £7.1m), along with adjusted EBITDA of £12.8m (2023: £16m). (TBDesk)

[adminck] 28/10/2024 17:57

I still stand by my expectations of a further collapse.

Labour government is clearly going all-in on rail re-nationalisation, and there will be considerable product consolidation in the market. One of the whole issues with rail is that each operator has been using their own systems, some good, some bad - but completely disjointed. I think Tracsis originally had a niche in that they were agile enough to compete with the big boys like Worldline, Fujitsu - but they never really managed to unseat them enough to solidify their position in the longer term. Nobody is going to be buying any new software or system for a couple of years whilst Great British Railways establishes itself, so whilst TRCS may retain some existing revenue, I don't rate their chances of generating new revenue at all.

GBR will then be Feast or famine - if TRCS is using this standstill period to actually innovate, build products that are the best around - then they may do very well when GBR start putting tenders out. If they're simply pulling up the drawbridge, slashing costs and staff, and their development work and innovation is slow or non existent - they'll eventually go pop when they don't win anything on a grand scale.

If you keep an eye on the GB Railways Transition Team vacancies, they also seem to have been building their own technical resources and experts - there's a vacancy online now for Delay Repay experts, one of TRCS main offerings. I have a feeling that in some areas, GBR will want to build and manage their own software and services, cutting out third party suppliers and their inflated costs that the privatised rail industry has generally just accepted.

[its the oxman] 28/10/2024 16:58

What's up , or rather down here, 480p bid