Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 14/8/2017 07:55

Pleased to see that second half was much stronger than the first half. good chance that this will continue into the new financial year. Also cash generation was strong with a 30% cash increase even after some acquisition expense.

Will look out for either further contract news or more positive statements.

[cfro] 14/8/2017 07:48

Surprisingly good trading update. Much better than i personally thought it might be.

Might lead to a relief rally?

Very happy to hold and see what the future brings here.

[gsbmba99] 11/8/2017 09:05

The 2017 EPS estimate was cut by Investec at the HY stage. It was positioned as a precautionary cut with the company saying they could still make the old number with a particularly favourable outcome for 2H. The 1H results masked a marked deterioration in the "core" business (excluding SEP and On-trac). SEP and On-trac were purchased at seasonal low points in the prior year. Full year inclusion should have benefited 1H17 PBT by about £1m (from memory). The small rise in 1H PBT suggests that the "core" PBT went backwards by about £0.7m. Not sure what the right numbers are for the full year. Am hoping 1H poor performance was down to the occasional lumpiness seen in prior years where inclusion (or not) of franchise rail bids is a big factor in performance for the year because of software and associated consulting fees from advising bidders.

[adamb1978] 11/8/2017 08:06

Sorry, and one other thing: regarding turnover growth, the figure which I see is £33.9m for FY17, which would be just 8% up on last year despite H1 being 20% up. Perhaps not a coincidence, the £33.9m figure would imply a H2 turnover identical to last year, so it coul djust be a lazy analyst. It would also mean that the H1/H2 split is 46/54, which goes against their comments that this year would be less balanced (assuming those comments are backed up by reality of course).

ANy views on where the years' outturn might be? £37m-£38m would seem to be more inline with the seasonal balance referred to and a more similar level of growth.
Thanks

Adam

[adamb1978] 11/8/2017 07:45

Thanks Ottrott. Those are the figures I have - I would expect stocko's 'normalised' EPS figure to be an equivalent figure to the fully adjusted figure from the previous year ie that the 22.2p is on the same basis as the 22.37p (perhaps apart from basic vs diluted share count). It therefore looks like earnings growth this year will be very low, partly because of a low tax charge last year

[ottrott] 10/8/2017 23:43

Stocko gives Normalised eps for 2017 as 22.2 which is what you refer to. For 2016 this number is given as 12.5. The headline number of 22.37 from the 2016 results which I think you are referring to is a fully adjusted number. If you look at the Income Statement the diluted eps is 12.26. The difference is explained in note 4: Earnings per share. Hope this helps.

[adamb1978] 10/8/2017 20:11

Sorry, one other thing: market expectations for EPS for the year ending Jul-17 look like being 22.2p from what I can see. Does anyone have different figures from other sources? That figure looks odd as its marginally down on last year.
Thanks

Adam

[adamb1978] 10/8/2017 19:55

Is there any confirmed date for trading update? I've seen the last couple yeras have been the 12th and 22nd
THanks

[martinthebrave] 03/8/2017 14:31

£562k order just gone through @ 450p. That might release things a little.

[interceptor2] 31/7/2017 09:50

A slow motion breakout over 435p on low volume so far.

I had also wondered what the reaction would be if stronger volume levels were present?

[cfro] 27/7/2017 10:38

Well, it seems to want to go up on very little buying power.

[cfro] 26/7/2017 17:45

I did decide to buy a few here today after all. Just hope the next TS is at least 'inline'.

Excellent risk/reward at these price levels imo.

[martinthebrave] 26/7/2017 12:16

Nice bit of price action today. Anybody of aware of any reason? If the share price can close above 435p there would be a resistance free route to over £5.

[chasbas] 26/7/2017 11:17

Posters have probably all had successes and disasters with technology stocks..like me.
Trcs has a long and successful track record (pun intended) with cautious management etc. Maybe it it is a bit boring...until something material comes out of US. I just do not think this excellent management team will let investors down. GLA

[cfro] 20/7/2017 09:33

I will definitely be placing TRCS at the top of my watchlist and will be reading the next update carefully, with interest, plus keeping an eye open for any further contract news.

Have just been going through the interims results which were out in March. They actually read rather well to me. Revenue up 20%, EBITDA up 11%, no debt and net cash of over £12m. All this and they even stated that the second half would show stronger growth.

[interceptor2] 19/7/2017 14:33

"Given the size and materiality of the contract, the award represents a step change in Tracsis' ability to tender for and win major technology projects and should pave the way for similar sales in the future with other transport operators both within the UK and abroad."

The extract from today's RNS is the reason why I am happy to be a shareholder ahead of the next trading update, it is possible that today's news is the catalyst that propels TRCS into a higher contract stage, it does sound like the CEO is anticipating this.

So from a risk/review point of view it could work out well, I will either be stopped out for a small loss, or if not I can build my position on hopefully more upbeat statements.

[buffetteer] 19/7/2017 13:42

Results are likely to meet the downgraded expectations ( similar to last year) imho .
I suspect this year will be better due to delayed contracts taking effect this year (due to the different contract cycle). You need to assess the long term attractiveness of this business and ride out the cycles because the fundamentals are v good ( expenses all IT development ,unlike almost everyone else, v cash generative so lots of firepower for acquisitions, but will not over-pay - he's Scottish , and lots of growth opportunities

[apad] 19/7/2017 10:52

I sold when the directors were selling.
This news is way overdue and there is still nothing on the US?
At least it is high margin business.
I am not tempted back.
apad

[pj 1] 19/7/2017 10:50

Also watching closely but I'm reluctant to buy under a declining 200 mda.

[rivaldo] 19/7/2017 10:50

Cheers cfro. Martinthebrave, just to clarify I completely agree that it wouldn't be deliberate to "pull investors in" as I have a high regard for the CEO as you evidently do too. But the timing of today's win is such that it would work that way if results weren't up to expectations.

[interceptor2] 19/7/2017 10:49

Appreciate the expression of caution from respected posters, I will take a cautious approach until the trading update which is normally released mid August, I don't think that the broker estimates are that demanding so the next update should be at least inline?

Good support on the chart at the 350p

Nice to have a foothold in this company at last.

[martinthebrave] 19/7/2017 10:11

Held this for a couple of years and I don't think John McArthur would "pull investors in" only a month prior to issuing a disappointing trading update. So I fully expect the update to be okay and have taken the opportunity to double up today.

[cfro] 19/7/2017 09:59

I agree riv. Just on the watchlist for time being.

This contract will have no effect for this FY and part of the contract is only a renewal of existing contracts.

Not sure just 'significant' this contract is therefore.

[rivaldo] 19/7/2017 09:55

Not a holder, but on the watchlist. Good news today, but there's no way I'd be buying today with a year end trading update coming in a month's time or so.

The H1 outlook noted that results are entirely dependent on the "normal" H2 seasonality and - particularly - "subject to the timely conversion of new sales for our various software products and services". I note that there haven't been any RNS'd new sales whatsoever this year until today.

Caution is the watchword for me. This is a good, high quality company - but I just hope this news doesn't pull investors in prior to any trading disappointment.