Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[davr0s] 13/10/2017 10:19

It's a standard breakout from consolidation (and I bought it about an hour ago)

[samenic] 13/10/2017 09:47

Is something occurring,been sideways for along time,now suddenly??

[chasbas] 14/8/2017 09:27

Don't forget blue sky upside from the US where they already have one contract

[adamb1978] 14/8/2017 07:38

True, the cash makes it easier to sleep at night and reduces the ex-cash multiple. I guess my concern is that markets are looking toppy at the moment and there is a chance that if we do get some for of market correction, then Mr Market will decide that a 5%-7% growth company doesnt deserve this multiple. Think I'll keep it on the watch list for the moment.

[buffetteer] 14/8/2017 07:32

Yes there is £15m cash so the ex-cash multiple is 17x. I agree it looks pretty full with little eps growth.This year has been a trough year due to the contract cycle and reorganisation. Next year should see strong growth and acquisitions. I see 30% upside & little
downside now

[adamb1978] 14/8/2017 07:06

The TU confirms that H2 Fy17 showed zero growth year on year and that turnover growth was c.8% for the year. Looks like EBITDA and PBT will be ahead by similar amounts and EPS probably in/around 22p.

I've had this on my watch-list for a while however it now feels like this is a say 5%-7% growth company, but which you're being asked to pay 20x for. That doesnt feel too compelling to me - certainly these doesnt seem to be any upside in terms of multiple appreciation, so share price growth needs to come from earnings growth.

Am I missing anything?

[interceptor2] 14/8/2017 06:55

Pleased to see that second half was much stronger than the first half. good chance that this will continue into the new financial year. Also cash generation was strong with a 30% cash increase even after some acquisition expense.

Will look out for either further contract news or more positive statements.

[cfro] 14/8/2017 06:48

Surprisingly good trading update. Much better than i personally thought it might be.

Might lead to a relief rally?

Very happy to hold and see what the future brings here.

[gsbmba99] 11/8/2017 08:05

The 2017 EPS estimate was cut by Investec at the HY stage. It was positioned as a precautionary cut with the company saying they could still make the old number with a particularly favourable outcome for 2H. The 1H results masked a marked deterioration in the "core" business (excluding SEP and On-trac). SEP and On-trac were purchased at seasonal low points in the prior year. Full year inclusion should have benefited 1H17 PBT by about £1m (from memory). The small rise in 1H PBT suggests that the "core" PBT went backwards by about £0.7m. Not sure what the right numbers are for the full year. Am hoping 1H poor performance was down to the occasional lumpiness seen in prior years where inclusion (or not) of franchise rail bids is a big factor in performance for the year because of software and associated consulting fees from advising bidders.

[adamb1978] 11/8/2017 07:06

Sorry, and one other thing: regarding turnover growth, the figure which I see is £33.9m for FY17, which would be just 8% up on last year despite H1 being 20% up. Perhaps not a coincidence, the £33.9m figure would imply a H2 turnover identical to last year, so it coul djust be a lazy analyst. It would also mean that the H1/H2 split is 46/54, which goes against their comments that this year would be less balanced (assuming those comments are backed up by reality of course).

ANy views on where the years' outturn might be? £37m-£38m would seem to be more inline with the seasonal balance referred to and a more similar level of growth.
Thanks

Adam

[adamb1978] 11/8/2017 06:45

Thanks Ottrott. Those are the figures I have - I would expect stocko's 'normalised' EPS figure to be an equivalent figure to the fully adjusted figure from the previous year ie that the 22.2p is on the same basis as the 22.37p (perhaps apart from basic vs diluted share count). It therefore looks like earnings growth this year will be very low, partly because of a low tax charge last year

[ottrott] 10/8/2017 22:43

Stocko gives Normalised eps for 2017 as 22.2 which is what you refer to. For 2016 this number is given as 12.5. The headline number of 22.37 from the 2016 results which I think you are referring to is a fully adjusted number. If you look at the Income Statement the diluted eps is 12.26. The difference is explained in note 4: Earnings per share. Hope this helps.

[adamb1978] 10/8/2017 19:11

Sorry, one other thing: market expectations for EPS for the year ending Jul-17 look like being 22.2p from what I can see. Does anyone have different figures from other sources? That figure looks odd as its marginally down on last year.
Thanks

Adam

[adamb1978] 10/8/2017 18:55

Is there any confirmed date for trading update? I've seen the last couple yeras have been the 12th and 22nd
THanks

[martinthebrave] 03/8/2017 13:31

£562k order just gone through @ 450p. That might release things a little.

[interceptor2] 31/7/2017 08:50

A slow motion breakout over 435p on low volume so far.

I had also wondered what the reaction would be if stronger volume levels were present?

[cfro] 27/7/2017 09:38

Well, it seems to want to go up on very little buying power.

[cfro] 26/7/2017 16:45

I did decide to buy a few here today after all. Just hope the next TS is at least 'inline'.

Excellent risk/reward at these price levels imo.

[martinthebrave] 26/7/2017 11:16

Nice bit of price action today. Anybody of aware of any reason? If the share price can close above 435p there would be a resistance free route to over £5.

[chasbas] 26/7/2017 10:17

Posters have probably all had successes and disasters with technology stocks..like me.
Trcs has a long and successful track record (pun intended) with cautious management etc. Maybe it it is a bit boring...until something material comes out of US. I just do not think this excellent management team will let investors down. GLA

[cfro] 20/7/2017 08:33

I will definitely be placing TRCS at the top of my watchlist and will be reading the next update carefully, with interest, plus keeping an eye open for any further contract news.

Have just been going through the interims results which were out in March. They actually read rather well to me. Revenue up 20%, EBITDA up 11%, no debt and net cash of over £12m. All this and they even stated that the second half would show stronger growth.

[interceptor2] 19/7/2017 13:33

"Given the size and materiality of the contract, the award represents a step change in Tracsis' ability to tender for and win major technology projects and should pave the way for similar sales in the future with other transport operators both within the UK and abroad."

The extract from today's RNS is the reason why I am happy to be a shareholder ahead of the next trading update, it is possible that today's news is the catalyst that propels TRCS into a higher contract stage, it does sound like the CEO is anticipating this.

So from a risk/review point of view it could work out well, I will either be stopped out for a small loss, or if not I can build my position on hopefully more upbeat statements.

[buffetteer] 19/7/2017 12:42

Results are likely to meet the downgraded expectations ( similar to last year) imho .
I suspect this year will be better due to delayed contracts taking effect this year (due to the different contract cycle). You need to assess the long term attractiveness of this business and ride out the cycles because the fundamentals are v good ( expenses all IT development ,unlike almost everyone else, v cash generative so lots of firepower for acquisitions, but will not over-pay - he's Scottish , and lots of growth opportunities

[apad] 19/7/2017 09:52

I sold when the directors were selling.
This news is way overdue and there is still nothing on the US?
At least it is high margin business.
I am not tempted back.
apad