Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 28/2/2017 14:53

Musings on TRCS.

Sold some this morning at about 365 (many previous sales above 500). Current profit about 170%.
If I am correct and this cash rich company has gone ex-growth then management will be desperate to have something to crow about for the interims in late March.
Maybe a special dividend or an acquisition. They have made a big thing about not overpaying for acquisitions and have referred to a big deal that couldn't be completed.
Paul Scott has threatened an interview twice, but nothing has come of it so far - the CEO is eager for interviews when he has something to brag about :-)
So, the 27th March interview will be interesting

Maybe we are coming to a time when it is worth increasing, but I'm not brave enough yet.

apad

[apad] 17/2/2017 13:16

Paul Scott

"Just to let you know that I've fixed up my next CEO interview with John McArthur of Tracsis, which is scheduled for the morning of Mon 27 March.

Results should be out on 23 March, so that gives you time to digest the numbers, and send me your questions."

apad

[tomps2] 17/2/2017 11:45

Managed to see a copy of the broker note, and didn't think the year seems as bad as the share price reaction has suggested.

Main points:

Investec (15.2.17) have kept FY forecasts the same, with a target price of 600.

H1 EBITDA £3.5m up 10% yoy, not higher, due to:

1. Franchise work (West Coast, Southern Easter, East Midlands, Wales&Borders) moved from H1 to H2 (DoT pushed back to March from Jan).
2. One software licence sale Jan 16 slipped in to March 17, so recognised H2
3. Traffic and data services undershot by £200k –the OPEX (10% headcount cut) should protect margins H2 onward

So majority of £0.6m should move into H2.

Also says there are “several large wildcard opportunities” not built into forecasts – even though timing uncertain.

FY17 Forecasts:
Rev 17: £34.7m
EBITDA 17: £9M
Normalised PTP: £8m
EPS: 24p

[apad] 17/2/2017 09:33

Confirmation Bias is when you pick on the information that might support your view and ignore all other information.

Yours is a pitch perfect example.

I should have known better than to post on a single company board.

apad

[ottrott] 17/2/2017 09:10

8th January, John McArthur, Chief Executive, disposed of 120,000 ordinary shares of 0.4p each ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company, at an average price of 515.9p per Ordinary Share.

The next line in the RNS

The beneficial interest of Mr McArthur following the transaction is 1,062,783 Ordinary Shares representing 3.9% of the total issued share capital of the Company.

Talk about Confirmation Bias ..... folks

[apad] 17/2/2017 09:03

Be careful about Confirmation Bias folks.
Since my comments below .gov has thrown a spanner into the works of the Framework Agreement.
Management is also under pressure to use the cash.
Doesn't mean there isn't profit to be made by buying on the dip though.
GLA
apad

APAD15 Nov '16 - 16:38 - 697 of 712 1 0 Edit
Results the day after tomorrow. Here are my concerns:

TRCS “Look and Feel”.

8th January, John McArthur, Chief Executive, disposed of 120,000 ordinary shares of 0.4p each ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company, at an average price of 515.9p per Ordinary Share.

10 Mar 2016
IP Group plc (LSE: IPO) (“IP Group” or “the Group” or “the Company”), the developer of intellectual property-based businesses, is pleased to announce that it has realised its entire holding in portfolio company Tracsis plc.
The Group received net cash proceeds of £13.1m from the sale.

Sean Lippell, Non-Executive Director and former corporate law partner, has departed with immediate effect. He has been removed from the website.

Friday 8 April, John Nelson, Non-Executive Director, disposed of 130,000 ordinary shares of 0.4p each ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company, at a price of 500p per Ordinary Share.

19 April 2016Uni Leeds sells 500,000
1,000,000 left.

25 April Leeds Uni disposal less than 4% left.

No large framework order.

US order small, could still take years - what is their driver.

Acquisitions look bitty. Missed a big one, but “it wasn’t good enough for us.”

Doesn’t return cash to shareholders.

Only 8 solid job vacancies.

So, on the whole, looks to be ex-growth to me.

apad

Buffetteer17 Nov '16 - 22:15 - 699 of 712 0 0
Good growth in sales and earnings . The business makes a high return on capital and unlike most tech companies they expense development costs . They deserve a premium rating for their consistency and ,because returns on capital are circa 20% you can expect good growth to come .
Ignore the doom - mangers because quality deserves respect.

[martinthebrave] 17/2/2017 08:36

Just topped up 350p. EV Ratio now below 13x & EPS growth 30%. A Fab little company. Missed the low but quite happy.

[slogsweep] 17/2/2017 08:29

VCT fund topping up someone sees value here. Also BPR qualifying so attractive as IHT mitigation investment if held for 2 years.

[slogsweep] 15/2/2017 08:57

looks like a buy at this price. Big fall on such apparent low volume.

[binarydave] 15/2/2017 08:20

Nothing to get too concerned or excited about right now. Still moving in the right direction, and cash in the bank. Good time for a top up and expect finals after H2 won't look quite as flat.

[wingrove4] 15/2/2017 08:19

Lots of small sells going through. PI's getting out I will continue to hold stop loss at 400p

[wjccghcc] 15/2/2017 07:51

No, not a profit warning. Just H2 weighted because of SEP - they said the same thing last year and ended up delivering revenues ahead of expectations.

"Due to the timing of software sales that are anticipated and the high seasonality inherent in some parts of the Group, the second half of the financial year is expected to be significantly stronger than the first half.

The outcome for the full year remains subject to the timely conversion of new sales for our various software products and services, supported by the improvement in gross margin initiatives that commenced at the start of the financial year. Delivery of these goals will result in revenues and profits being in line with current expectations and we will provide a further update with our Interim Results."

[tjbird] 15/2/2017 07:49

No wonder the chief executive sold so many shares last year

What a crock

[tjbird] 15/2/2017 07:42

Profit warning

[wilmdav] 14/2/2017 15:05

This does seem to be running out of steam in the short term.

Return on capital employed has been good but is gradually decreasing.
Operating margins have significantly reduced from what they were 5 years ago and whilst revenue has shown substantial growth, operating profit has been flat during the past 3 years. I think this is mainly due to increasing amortisation of funds spent on acquisitions. This will increase further following the spend in 2016 on Ontrack, SEP and Citi Logic.

Nevertheless the business has been generating plenty of cash. If recent acquisitions do the same, the medium/long term outlook would look promising. Whether it would be worth staying on board in the meantime, might be a hard one call. I decided to hop out for now.

[artibee] 13/2/2017 16:35

There was a Trading Announcement about this time last year (although I can't find anything about one this year for some reason) so its either a tree shake or there's a bit of bad news leaked. Pay your money and take your choice!

[wingrove4] 13/2/2017 09:03

Looks like an opportunity, should I buy some more or not?

[tp6] 12/1/2017 12:08

A write up on tracsis here.

hxxp://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/revealed-where-the-yp-business-team-predict-you-should-invest-your-money-1-8312941

[buffetteer] 17/11/2016 22:15

Good growth in sales and earnings . The business makes a high return on capital and unlike most tech companies they expense development costs . They deserve a premium rating for their consistency and ,because returns on capital are circa 20% you can expect good growth to come .
Ignore the doom - mangers because quality deserves respect.

[apad] 15/11/2016 16:38

Results the day after tomorrow. Here are my concerns:

TRCS “Look and Feel”.

8th January, John McArthur, Chief Executive, disposed of 120,000 ordinary shares of 0.4p each ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company, at an average price of 515.9p per Ordinary Share.

10 Mar 2016
IP Group plc (LSE: IPO) (“IP Group” or “the Group” or “the Company”), the developer of intellectual property-based businesses, is pleased to announce that it has realised its entire holding in portfolio company Tracsis plc.
The Group received net cash proceeds of £13.1m from the sale.

Sean Lippell, Non-Executive Director and former corporate law partner, has departed with immediate effect. He has been removed from the website.

Friday 8 April, John Nelson, Non-Executive Director, disposed of 130,000 ordinary shares of 0.4p each ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company, at a price of 500p per Ordinary Share.

19 April 2016Uni Leeds sells 500,000
1,000,000 left.

25 April Leeds Uni disposal less than 4% left.

No large framework order.

US order small, could still take years - what is their driver.

Acquisitions look bitty. Missed a big one, but “it wasn’t good enough for us.”

Doesn’t return cash to shareholders.

Only 8 solid job vacancies.

So, on the whole, looks to be ex-growth to me.

apad

[apad] 26/8/2016 10:00

PRINTED MORE SHARES AGAIN TODAY.
Does anyone know of an easy way to check the rate of change of shares in issue?
apad

[stuart37] 22/8/2016 09:25

No, all looks good to me - onwards and upwards..........

[mctmct] 22/8/2016 09:02

Positive trading update today. I haven't spotted anything worrying.