Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[battyliveson] 07/1/2019 08:43

Transition arrangements seems well managed with old CEO available to help the new one bed in. Happy to hold in 2019.

B

[chasbas] 08/11/2018 12:59

Strong results for year to 31st July. Positive outlook. Conservative well-managed company in growth industry. Strong balance sheet with cash of £22m. But this is a growth stock with organic revenue +14%. Adjusted EPS: Historic 25.5p. Forecast from (corporate broker) FinnCap of 26.3p with scope to increase. So at 600p prospective PER is 22.8x.
IMO they will comfortably beat 26.3p which is only +3%, which is a very low starting forecast. Quality company but low profile.

[nchanning] 31/10/2018 18:33

Forward P/e is only an estimate but given the recent ahead of expectations update we can be very confident that Tracsis will hit FinnCap's modestly upgraded expectations of 24.5p a share. Thanks to Tracsis's conservative accounting policies of expensing virtually all of its software development, and the amortisation of acquired intangibles, it has the lovely habit of free cash flow regularly exceeding accounting profits. Given that the recent trading update stated that cash balances are now at £22 million, and FinnCap's (conservatively upgraded) FCF estimate of £9.4 million for 2018, this puts Tracsis on a very modest EV/FCF of 15. A wonderful bargain for a fast growing company with very high quality earnings which has just provided virtual certainty on excellent results next week. Given the obvious momentum in the business further upgrades seem possible for next year

[steverabet] 24/8/2018 11:30

historic p/e - last reported earnings was 13.3p ish. forward p/e is only an estimate, although it seems to be a reasonable assumption that earnings will be ahead of forecasts. my point is, profits are racking up nicely, but so far, still relatively modestly, which makes the shares quite highly rated.

[buffetteer] 24/8/2018 11:08

Not quite sure how you arrive at 54x . The forward PE is 28.3 on earnings of 25.6...and that’s assumi h they do nothing with the £22m cash (unlikely)

[steverabet] 24/8/2018 10:57

this looks like a company that is going places, but i feel that a p/e of 54 is a bit too juicy. yes, the july 18 results look like they should be promising, but growth needs to be exponential rather than impressive to justify this price. unless some major pops up with a knockout bid?

[slopsjon2] 08/7/2018 16:13

finnCap initiate coverage with a 700p target price.

Tracsis is a SaaS provider to the transport industry, focused on delivering
shareholder value through a combination of organic and acquired growth. The
business has established, well-regarded management; dominant positions in its
current domestic markets; significant overseas opportunities for growth; and a
strong M&A track record delivering additions to the product set and cross sales to
the loyal customer base, as well as penetration of international markets. With the
opportunity for unmodelled growth through acquisitions enabled by its £18.5m net
cash position (generated internally), and the chance to deliver automation and
improved margins within Traffic and Data Services (FY17: 54% of group revenue but
only 24% of group EBITDA), we initiate coverage with a 700p target price.

[quant_investor] 23/5/2018 13:29

Delayed reaction to the FD selling shares at a discount to the prevailing SP?

He parted with just over 10% of his holding so the reaction seems disproportionate

[melody9999] 23/5/2018 09:52

why the fall today?

[fredfishcake] 27/4/2018 10:15

I do like the recent shape of that chart-we're going ballistic!

[davidosh] 24/4/2018 17:12

Just to mention that Tracsis will be presenting at our huge Mello2018 event in Derby on 27th April and all shareholders and potential investors are welcome to attend

TRCS have presented at a Mello event before and we are very pleased to welcome them so this is an ideal opportunity to meet the management and hear about their strategy.

Do come and join us at this quality two day event and there will be at least 45 other companies to meet each day plus some fabulous keynote speakers

[chasbas] 28/3/2018 08:25

Excellent interim results with management "...confident of delivering full year results in line with market expectations.....a number of interesting and exciting opportunities remain ongoing....The business remains well placed within the UK transport market and our core markets of rail technology and traffic and and transport data services continue to be supported by a favourable market backdrop and positive growth drivers."

Margins are up slightly. Very cash generative with cash on balance sheet of £18.1m.
IMHO there is a more confident tone from management in the statement. I can't find anything not to like. Happy holder.

[chasbas] 27/3/2018 11:04

AXA has disclosed a new 5% holding yesterday. Other major shareholders are Ennismore (6.8%), Unicorn (6.6%)and Schroders (5.2%).
Interim results tomorrow: 6 months to 31st Jan.
IMHO they will be upbeat so I have topped up today at 508p.

[grahamburn] 09/3/2018 17:50

Nothing obvious from the trades today.

As noted three weeks back, the trading update was positive and encouraging.

Interim results are due at the end of the month, so unlikely anything has changed since the update, especially as there hasn't been an announcement indicating a change.

In any case, there's always a wide spread on this share which can sometimes exaggerate relatively minor movements in bid/offer prices, particularly on the bid side.

IMO don't get nervous..... yet.

[huttonr] 09/3/2018 17:37

6% drop in price today - very little trading - so, should I be nervous?

[chasbas] 20/2/2018 10:03

Great TU, great stock! Such a conservative and well managed company. Never disappointed. All IMHO. Even a mention of further work in the US. Cash balances over £18.5m. Given growth industry and cutting edge technology, this is a tuckaway and forget.

[gsbmba99] 21/12/2017 08:18

The confident view expressed on the podcast hasn't filtered into any changes to the forecasts so management not yet confident enough to risk their reputations. Maybe that's just a function of where they are in the fiscal year but the multi-million pound contract doesn't look like it was accretive to forecasts. Maybe it will be a source of outperformance, maybe it covers underperformance elsewhere. I don't know. The 3 year CAGR (FY16-FY19) of revenue (pro forma for full year inclusion of acquisitions of SEP and On-Trac in FY16) is about 2% which looks incredibly pedestrian for an early 20s P/E company. I sold it about a month ago as I felt I could find better risk/reward balance elsewhere. It also bothered me that the CFO said that the options scheme for employees was essentially them trading their bonus (or part thereof) for options, the cost of which then gets "adjusted" out of EPS.

[chasbas] 18/12/2017 13:00

IMHO Paul's interview was positive/confident. Management remains very conservative. Results are prudently reported. Great acquisition record. They are "very pleased how company has started the year"

Topped up this morning at 520p. share price was this level in 2015 and 2016!
I am not a chartist but the chart looks good to me. Any opinions?

IMHO the share price is supported by fundamentals but any news, particularly from the US, could be very good for the share price To me the company is a bit unloved so a buying opportunity? Quality company that has never disappointed in my experience.

[paulypilot] 09/11/2017 17:28

Here is my latest audio interview, recorded today, with CEO & CFO of Tracsis. I hope people find it interesting. The questions were crowd-sourced from my blog readers, plus some of my questions. It's independent - I didn't charge a fee, and have no shareholding in TRCS, no adverts, nothing!




Regards, Paul.

P.S. Sorry about the bleeping in the background, something went funny with the audio software. But at least the main audio is tons better quality than in previous recordings - I got them to use handsets, not speakerphone.

[walbrock82] 08/11/2017 19:22

Tracsis is a great business and has rewarded Long-term shareholders with a ten-bagger in under ten years. The company manages to produce a decent level of profits and reward shareholders with a dividend, even though it yielded is less than 0.3%. The dividend well covered.

The two major acquisitions made last year will continue to integrate into the main business.

Despite, Tracsis numerous good traits, we need to look at some negative ones. These include:

1). Falling operating margins, as market valuation has pushed PER to 35 times earnings. Normally, Tracsis’s PER range around 12-16 times during 2011 to 2013, before the shares got “re-rated.”

2). Although it sees costs per employee falling, Tracsis wage “component” is becoming an important factor as it accounts for 55% of revenue in 2016 from 30% in 2012.

Apart from the above, I feel shareholders and investors need to account for up to £9m in deferred payments if targets are met in 2018, a potential cash outflow and would halt the growth in their cash balance.

At £156m, I see Tracsis’s shares trading sideways for the next 12 months until fundamentals catch up with valuation.

For full analysis and charts click

If you enjoyed this post, there are other company coverage here hxxp://walbrockresearch.com/home/

[mw8156] 08/11/2017 14:55

are they still chasing RMC in North America; looks as though negotiations are continuing?

[davr0s] 08/11/2017 09:06

Results look pretty solid. Surely that trade at 415 must be bogus as it hasn't traded at that level for months

[fredfishcake] 07/11/2017 09:59

Results due tomorrow, Paul Scott planning to interview the CEO and states:

"So if you have any questions to put to John, then please email them on Weds to both me and John, using these email addresses:

Me: [e-mail]

CEO of Tracsis: [e-mail]"

Quoted from

[davr0s] 13/10/2017 12:35

Yeah spread isn't great so it means I positioned it as a smaller sized purchase

[samenic] 13/10/2017 11:21

Fine thanks,been a holder for years,good luck with the spread.......