Tp Share Discussion Threads

[timojelly] 20/7/2017 19:16

Give or take when the dust settles and we have 30mill in the bank then we should at least be trading around 13p (and that doesn't even factor in growth potential of all these aquasitions we're planning over next 12 months)..... Jeez

[timojelly] 20/7/2017 19:10

Assuming everything goes through, cash pile in excess of 30mill quid, current businesses worth Circa £50mill may be, yet at the moment we have a combined mkt cap of a mere 29million.... What gives?

[pavey ark] 19/7/2017 17:59

As all long term investors know, TPG is on the up and up but I must say this fund raising did catch me by surprise.
The maritime unit as we know was/is going from strength to strength ( recruiting up again on the company site) but the company has been held back by the eye watering losses from the D&T unit.
Fortunately​ there was a reduction in revenue in this unit as long term, loss making contracts came to an end so the reduction in revenue was certainly positive.
The MS unit was tiny and was really just built round a 10 year MoD contract that came to an end half way through 2016. Obviously there was a temporary drop in income but the unit now looks in great shape with new MoD contracts and the recent acquisitions looking good.
The engineering unit has partially extracated itself from the low margin oil and gas business and looks to have repositioned itself in the lower volume,higher margin nuclear and aerospace market.
New management, rapidly rising order book, rapidly falling losses and predicted profit this year should complete the turnround.
So with things going so well and revenue expected to climb 30% and EBITDA set to treble I expected a steady as you go approach and a gradual acquisition programme using the ample cash balance at hand.
I would suggest that the management have identified a real window where there are almost forced sellers out there.
The proposed rate of acquisition will increase the risk to investors as the previous set up of the Maritime unit worth over £40m on its own,the other three units turning round rapidly and a year end predicted cash balance of £7m made it bomb proof.
The only real risk I can see is simply too much too soon but the management have shown they know what they are doing so things should be OK.

I would have expected an EBITDA of at least £4m next year and cash of £10m but now we may have an EBITDA of over £10m and some cash left.

I expect a year end share price of 9p/10p and end of next 13p/15p

People will remember my long term 50% compound growth that was looking good 3.6p,5.4p,8.1p and 12.15p so I would be happy to be wrong on the upside but this share picking lark can certainly bite you on the bum sometimes.

Many a slip ....and all that !!

[pavey ark] 19/7/2017 13:26

No long term , knowledgeable, holder of TPG would agree that acquisitions are needed but most would welcome this latest move by the board.
I suspect you have limited knowledge of the history of TPG or the three units you have "researched" and simply repeating the recent results only make your lack of understanding all the more obvious.
Far from being needed I may have preferred a slightly longer delay before these acquisitions but I do know quite a bit about TPG .
Edit: the management are trying to exploit the situation that other small MoD contractors now find themselves and NOT simply trying to buy revenue as has been suggested.

[buywell3] 19/7/2017 10:47

You have issues re HAYT

I stand by this

Out of the 4 Divisions itemised in the 2016 Annual report

3 of them reported lower earnings than in 2015

the only one that improved was TPG Maritime which lucky for holders carried the other 3 Divisions performing badly.

The numbers are there for all to read

I can post them if asked

Thus I can see why acquisitions are needed

[pavey ark] 19/7/2017 10:21

I hold enough of these to know what is written in every publication produced by TPG .

The clear suggestion from the previous post was that TPG had to chase revenue because of falling revenue in its current units was ridiculous and would be seen as such by any knowledgeable investor.

The current brokers estimates for 2017 is for revenue of £30m and an EBITDA of c.£2.7m with c. £7m cash ( this is before the cash raising and major acquisitions)

Revenue of the MS unit and Engineering unit are expected to rise significantly and losses at D&T are expected to fall further ( close to break even)

I welcome the acquisitions but they are certainly not "needed"

[buywell3] 19/7/2017 08:19

Try reading the annual report
Any investor worth his salt would
My previous post is correct 100%

[pavey ark] 18/7/2017 21:08

All knowledgeable investors will know that the only unit to suffer any sort of serious reverse was engineering and this was also the unit that had the greatest increase in orders and is showing the greatest prospect of improvement in the very near (immediate) future.

I may be a bit out of my depth here as I am certainly not prepared to spend my day posting 12 times on about 10 different companies......unlike some.

[buywell3] 18/7/2017 19:02

Out of the 4 Divisions itemised in the 2016 Annual report

3 of them reported lower earnings than in 2015

the only one that improved was TPG Maritime which lucky for holders carried the other 3 Divisions performing badly.

Thus I can see why acquisitions are needed

[arf dysg] 18/7/2017 17:45

ewads (2322) "how is the daily share price kept above 6.5p?"

A cannonball may be thrown over the edge of a thirteenth-floor balcony.

For a while, people will be able to say "Look! It is still above the ground! It flies!"

[grinley boy] 18/7/2017 10:06

with what is planned with the proceeds and alignment of TPG/MOD supply chain 6.5p looks like a very good deal IMHO

[bone apart] 17/7/2017 22:51

By peeps who think 6.5p is a good deal!

[ewads] 15/7/2017 09:48

To get this placing away, how is the daily share price kept above 6.5p? Just curious

[pavey ark] 13/7/2017 09:10

It is becoming increasingly difficult for me to get all that bothered about the open offer to shareholders.
Normally when I hold a share that is undergoing a fund raising exercise the first question I look at is whither or not I am prepared to suffer a dilution of my holding but in this case the dilution will happen whatever I do.
I am however quite happy to see shares being added at 6.5p and the company going forward with over £30m pounds in cash, with a clear plan, competent and experienced management,and most importantly, a distinct advantage (lever) in any future negotiations to purchase the companies they are targeting.
My lack of enthusiasm for the 1:7 share offer is that I hold a very large number of shares (for me and relative to the rest of my portfolio) and don't really want to add more so will probably just dip in here and there.

If I held a smaller number I would probably take up my entitlement and go for more in the excess distribution(the amount available will depend on the institutional take up).
I see that management are buying 2.5m in the Firm Placing but not participating in the Open Offer.

My view is that the placings at 6.5p is so close to the recent share price as to not really dilute the value of my holdings and I expect the cash to be used to very good effect thus increasing the value of my holdings (significantly ?)

My 50% compound growth model for the share price was going well and fairly easy to monitor and adjust but things are now a bit up in the air.

I predicted 8.1p by this year end but based on my revised EBITDA target and cash I was pushing this out to closer to 9p.

With is cash pile and the flurry of acquisitions that I suspect are already lined up I think we will experience a bit of price volatility this year.
Coverage in the IC can cause spikes but I think the progress will be fairly rapid and we should see 10p by the year end but this may be based on the newly acquired companies producing the require return in the future rather than actual cash produced this year.

Looking further out then 13p should not be unreasonable for the end of next year but this is quite shot in the dark with all that is going on today.

The above prediction is based on the market (at the end of 2017)looking at the year ahead and seeing a predicted EBITDA of over £10m.

[tiltonboy] 12/7/2017 14:52

It means you can apply for extra shares under the excess facility up to 10x your existing holding. This is in addition to your 1:7 entitlement.

[napoleon 14th] 12/7/2017 14:44

I'm certainly in for the first 10,000.
Another 20,000 under excess would be interesting, but just how many you have to pitch for to get 20,000 is an unknown.

[napoleon 14th] 12/7/2017 14:34

C & P from my broker's note sent today:
OPEN OFFER

You have been credited with TP Group plc Entitlement Shares at a rate of 1 Basic Entitlement Share (ISIN: GB00BF4VC969) for every 7 existing Shares held

and 10 Excess Entitlement Shares (ISIN: GB00BF4VCB83) for every 1 existing Share held as at 10 July 2017. These will entitle you to purchase 1 New TP Group plc Ordinary Share (ISIN: GB0030591514) for every 1 Entitlement Share held at an issue price of GBP0.065 per New Share.

Shareholders may apply for any whole number of excess shares in excess of their Open Offer Entitlements subject to availability. The excess entitlement is shown purely for administration purposes.
___________
I have 70,000 shares on that account. I suppose that means I get a basic entitlement of 10,000 shares come what may.

I don't quite understand what it means for the excess.
10,000 shares under excess?
or "10 Excess Entitlement Shares (ISIN: GB00BF4VCB83) for every 1 existing Share held as at 10 July 2017" means 700,000 Excess Entitlement Shares? So - "These will entitle you to purchase 1 New TP Group plc Ordinary Share (ISIN: GB0030591514) for every 1 Entitlement Share held at an issue price of GBP0.065 per New Share." I can't believe that means 700,000 * 6.5p = £45,500!
HARDLY LIKELY! & beyond my reach on this A/C alone......

[trentendboy] 11/7/2017 16:41

seems a decent discount to the current share price Will more than likely try to load up with my allowance.

[grinley boy] 11/7/2017 15:29

The following appeared on my online account yet I have had no contact from them? I take it they are placeholders for when the purchase for the open offer becomes live?

TP Group Open Offer Basic
TP Group Open Offer Excess

Edited: Just looked at corporate actions and the Basic offer is 1 for every 7 you hold at 6.5p the excess offer is 10 for every 1 at 6.5p but not guaranteed

[humphries1] 11/7/2017 10:53

azalea i cant wait

[azalea] 11/7/2017 08:23

The potential benefits behind this fund raising should not be underestimated. In 12 months time a doubling of the share price is a very realistic forecast.

[timojelly] 11/7/2017 06:12

I think we will sit around this share price for a while. Really hope H2 drives us into double figures finally.

[pavey ark] 10/7/2017 22:04

Been doing my little sums and must say that my long standing prediction of 50% compound annual share price increase(accurate up until now) looks safe and perhaps conservative.
I note that some of this new cash is earmarked for the existing business and I expected an EBITDA of £3m for this year and £4m/£5m next (before this announcement)
I strongly suspect that some of these deals are very close to completion so we should see a fair bit of activity in H2.

Here's a little thought that has just popped into my head. If MS (now with D&T incorporated) and Engineering get £30m spent on them and are built up into a tier 2 supplier would TPG consider selling off the Maritime unit ?

With the Trident contract, long term MoD contracts , French submarine project (with the Australian 12 boat programme), fuel cell AIP being developed for TKMS...etc, etc, this unit could go for £50m and still leave a nice little business.

Just a thought.

PS: over a year ago I said Maritime was worth £30m and how the trolls laughed.
This year Panmure Gordon initiated coverage of TPG and said that the Maritime Unit was worth over £40m.
I believe things have improved further.