Tp Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon 14th] 08/1/2019 15:02

PA - yes I do read your posts and find them informative and unbiased, so thanks for putting flesh on the bones, so to speak.
I am aware of the progress made in rebuilding the near-defunct Corac and our CEO's record in this line of management.
I note we could soon get a TU if there's a repeat of last year.

None of that makes any difference to SP, my PF valuation, and progress toward a building project that would be much facilitated by rising PF value - not an easy remit in 2018! So shares that promise jam tomorrow are all well and good, but sometimes tomorrow is a long time coming! With TPG it's been a very long time...

Edit.
Oh yes, and the relatively huge war chest in a rights issue ( on which my broker f'ed up ) that has not materialised in anything of notable weight. That should not, IMO, have happened, and any acquisition could be dealt with individually. The result has been a lot of expectation and very little action.
Fortunately there hasn't been a series of wasteful deals.
I'd be interested to know how much cash TPG still have on the balance sheet.

[iasike] 08/1/2019 13:33

just tested some trades, can buy 30,00 plus no problem, but can't sell 5000 without
going to market makers. spread showing as 6.1p - 6.5p

[timojelly] 08/1/2019 12:28

We know everything is going really well. Just new acquisitions and or contracts might be a surprise.

[timojelly] 08/1/2019 12:26

Last year was 15th Jan

[grinley boy] 08/1/2019 12:24

Anyone off the top of their head know what the date is of the trading statement?

[timojelly] 08/1/2019 12:20

Build up to the trading update most probably

[grinley boy] 08/1/2019 11:58

Something has triggered a positive move, any ideas anyone?

[pavey ark] 07/1/2019 18:40

LL ,

Yes, I really can believe that.

[larry laffer] 07/1/2019 17:09

FFS PA

“do you people even read my posts.........”;

To be honest I usually get down to line 2 and then give up.

[pavey ark] 07/1/2019 16:27

FFS do you people even read my posts, you don't have to agree but at least read them.

looking at last year's results, a share price of 6p/7p is probably generous.
I set out in reasonable detail what I thought the company would have to achieve this year to justify a price of 8p ( no comment about my figures/assumptions ?)
"I bought these share and I insist they go up in price" is hardly a sophisticated investing technique

One other point: people who buy shares buy into the capitalist system , no matter what they think their personal political views are.
The board are out to make as much money as possible, just like you. If the option scheme is not to your liking sell but it is most certainly part and parcel of the system.
Personally I think the present scheme is great and would be very happy for the share price to be so high that the board made lots of money. The institutions are also very big investors here and at much more than 6p and they will keep a lid on option excess ( they have in the past, for once the system worked)

The board of this company and certainly the CEO have spent very large sums buying share and at a higher price than 6p.

I hold 1m shares at a lower price than this and will sell at a higher price than this but I'm not so immature as to beat myself up over "if only I had bought Wongo-Wongo resources at 1p as they are now at 150p"

Decide today, look at the figures, look at the prospects, look at the dangers buy more or sell the lot.

[timojelly] 07/1/2019 14:23

The share price is no higher than it was mid 2016. Not moved dispite all the news since.

[napoleon 14th] 07/1/2019 13:35

Hear,hear, Larry.

[catch007] 07/1/2019 13:27

Hopefully only a week or so to the FY trading update and we can assess thereafter GLA

[larry laffer] 07/1/2019 10:09

PA

I am fairly positive on TPG's prospects for a "bright future". In the same way you are.

However for me to benefit from that "bright future" the share price needs to react to the flow of news.

I don't believe it has to the degree it should have done, but we are where we are. The current share price is the only meaningful metric of how successful the company is on behalf of its financial backers, until dividend payments etc kick in.

They may well have a full order book far into the horizon.....but

That order flow has to be turned into profitable business otherwise none of the investors will benefit at all.

The last thing I should mention is the moving target TPG calls "options" or "management incentive plan". They should be fixed and not rewritten when they miss their own kpi's. That's just plainly rewarding failure and IMVHO wrong.

[pavey ark] 06/1/2019 17:04

LL,

I will concede that perhaps I should have made it clear/clearer that I was partially responding to the claim that the share price had gone sideways recently and the call/prediction of a double 10p+ share price (obviously not the same poster).

I certainly gave facts, predictions, brokers estimate etc and set out in some detail what was required to reach and maintain a share price of 8p.

On reading my previous post I certainly strongly refute any suggestion that my use of an 8p share price was inappropriate and the detail surrounding it certainly could /should add to a discussion on the company's prospects.

From my previous post:
"First let me start with a realistic price target for the year end and try and work back from there.
Usually not very productive to try and second guess the short term market price but it seems a big thing with some people so here we go:-"

[larry laffer] 06/1/2019 11:40

PA


"A share price of 8p at the end of the year is 33% up from where we are.
A share price of 8p gives a market cap of c. £61m...."

Couldn't you equally have said

"A share price of 0p at the end of the year is 100% down from where we are.
A share price of 0p gives a market cap of c. £0m...."

In essence neither of the statements adds anything to a discussion on the companies prospects.

[pavey ark] 06/1/2019 10:52

I usually only post on news/developments (one post in December)but in the spirit of things I will try to give what I consider to be a realistic appraisal of where TPG is and where I think it is going in 2019.

Obviously there are all sorts of issues outside the company's control but with the current order book and customer base it may be possible to smooth things out.

First let me start with a realistic price target for the year end and try and work back from there.
Usually not very productive to try and second guess the short term market price but it seems a big thing with some people so here we go:-

A share price of 8p at the end of the year is 33% up from where we are.
A share price of 8p gives a market cap of c. £61m
If no further acquisitions (unlikely)then the year end net cash will be c.£17m
EV at end of the year £44m
likely EBITDA £5m- £5.5m. let's say £5.25m

Adj profit before tax c. £2.6m or PE of 17

EV/EBITDA c.8 times

Given the cash, year on year progress and undoubted potential of the company these final figures are more than acceptable and ,in my opinion, justifiable.

NB: if further major orders come in I suspect that the market will simply ignore these figures but the above are a realistic view of where we are today.

[napoleon 14th] 04/1/2019 18:34

I neither sold (not bad enough) nor added (not good enough).
Also aware they've held up well in 2018, unlike many (a few of mine included).
Still, SP-wise it's been a yawn!

[catch007] 03/1/2019 19:51

As PA rightly points out we all have different strategies napoleon 14th. Yes you can call it stagnant and a lost opportunity and that's correct however I do hope you also realise a decent return in TPG. I continue accumulating small share tranches from dividend income as I believe there is value to be had with the share price below 6.5p (added a further 20k in past month). I hope we will test last years high as a start point in 2019 though I believe in the medium term if business progress is maintained the share price uplift could be significant. As TPG represents only a tiny percentage of my portfolio (primarily geared for income generation) I am comfortable to hold - each to their own and I also wish good luck on your investment decisions.

[pavey ark] 03/1/2019 15:32

nap14, it looks to me that your investment criteria are different from myself and probably the vast majority of poster/TPG holders here.
I have noticed similar posts on other boards and people are always able to name missed opportunity, we all can.

The current investors in TPG are hoping to get in (and stay in ) before/until the steady, brick by brick management strategy is recognised.

The real trick would be to take our money out, put it into something else, that share rises we sell and buy back into TPG.....easy.

Just popping out to check those lottery tickets I've put up in the car sun visor.


Good luck with INFA though

[napoleon 14th] 03/1/2019 10:37

What I see, despite all the "wonderful" progress made at TPG, is a stagnant share price for the last two years at least, & it is now on its' support level.

In investment terms this = dead money until now.
That means lost opportunities elsewhere.
If the next TU/results don't move the share price significantly, I'll be OUT.

If you want an example of where I wish I had put this TPG money, check out INFA.
Chalk and cheese...... Lucky I have some INFA anyway!

Roll on next results, then we'll see.

GLA & HNY!

[catch007] 02/1/2019 22:12

Time will tell on the Naval contract if it is gained and the contractual value however it would be substantial for the company. Not sure about the fools gold commentary!

[pavey ark] 02/1/2019 20:48

I'm no metallurgist but I don't think that gold has the necessary tensile strength to be used to make an advanced gas management system for a submarine and the weight to strength ratio is certainly way out , on the other hand it can't corrode !!

On a slightly more serious note I have tried for sometime this evening to put a value for TPG on the Australian submarine deal and there are simply far too many variables and unknowns.

The first thing is that the initial deal is with the French manufacturer just as TPG deals with BAE during the Dreadnaught construction.
After the construction is completed there is then a maintenance deal with the Australian navy.

The French recently ordered an advanced gas management system but that was probably for their new attack submarine and was the fourth/fifth in the class and it was a nuclear boat (£2m).

The new Australian boats are not nuclear but they will have advanced AIP systems and the first system will be expensive (much more expensive to produce than the twelfth)....see what I mean.

I had been following the Australian deal for some time and TPG supplied all the front runners but when the French got it things looked very good for TPG.(the Germans would have been equally good for TPG).

If I'm really forced I would say that if the French order a system ,for say the fourth boat, then TPG could expect revenue of £5m/£6m over the next 20 years (plus inflation)but this is probably a mix of initial purchase and then subsequent maintenance.
These are the sort of figures management have used in the past.

Make no mistake this order is a big deal but so is the recent tie-up with TKMS.
The orders are certainly coming into TKMS and all European navies that would operate in the North Sea and Baltic need/want AIP and although TKMS is a world leader they need TPGs advanced gas management expertise.
The same is true of all far eastern navies operating in comparatively crowded and shallow waters.
AIP makes no noise and makes the submarine almost undetectable.

One thing is certain, for every submarine built that uses TPG kit then TPG will get 30 years revenue and not many companies have that.

[catch007] 02/1/2019 14:03

This is the announcement core from June 18 - TPG also had first 2m order in the same month hence my logic (for what its worth lol)

TP Group (AIM: TPG), the specialist services and engineering group, is pleased to announce it has signed a five-year framework agreement ("the Agreement") with Naval Group, the French defence prime contractor responsible for building submarines and surface ships for the French navy and other international customers.


The Agreement builds upon past work, and seeks to formalise the working arrangements between the two companies. In addition, the Agreement also sets out standard terms of business that will enable TP Group to respond quickly to Naval Group requirements.


The Agreement is effective immediately and will cover work on atmosphere management systems on-board surface ships and submarines in the naval defence industry.

[catch007] 02/1/2019 13:08

The share price game changer this year would be a contract with the French Naval Framework. 12 new submarines Australian ordered contract value 29 billion. The existing framework is a five year deal for TPG however if you read the announcement terms of business are already agreed so TPG are ideally placed to slot in as a preferred supplier. Taking a very bullish stance (as nothing has been confirmed yet and an entirely speculative view)a very conservative 10 million per sub order would produce 120 million contract over the 11 year expected delivery period and could be substantially more given the high touch work requirements and servicing support. The Australian contract with Naval should be signed in Q1 2019 so I hope for good news pre June 30th (half year close. Of course I may be totally wrong however there is a compelling logic here. GLA