Tp Share Discussion Threads

[luzley] 10/10/2018 07:10

Excellent progress at Polaris noted in RNS this morning. The involvement of Thales in this cutting edge AI research is excellent news as it strengthens big-player project involvement.

[napoleon 14th] 07/10/2018 23:37

TPG - MOD have announced a £ multi-million refit of navy warships. I wonder how much of that TPG can get.

[pavey ark] 05/10/2018 12:44

I remember it as "don't tell him Pike" but it was a long time ago.
I couldn't find the "rugged" computer company at the time but I think I've now found it as one half of a larger company.

This part of the company hasn't done well in the last year so it is as well that TPG were very cautious and they may have returned with what I imagine will be a reduced bid.

Looks good to me but I'm guessing here so not naming names......
perhaps just stirring things up??

[steve3sandal] 05/10/2018 11:45

Don’t tell him your name Pike!

[catch007] 05/10/2018 10:42

There were three sector acquisition indications and descriptions contained in the interims. Obviously they are progressing the strategy with diligence so an announcement on one of the identified opportunities would be no surprise in the short term. The share price has held up in a challenging market which is encouraging and a quality earnings enhancing acquisition may give us the boost we have been patiently been waiting for in the TPG share price GLA

[bullster] 05/10/2018 10:14

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Pavey Ark,

At least give us the first letter.

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[pavey ark] 05/10/2018 09:52

I think I've tracked down one of their acquisition targets and it looks quite good.
Obviously the most important issue isn't how good the acquisition looks but how much you pay for it.
As this management doesn't overpay or rush in then things should work out well.

I have a hunch ,only a hunch, they could make a move quite soon.

[timojelly] 05/10/2018 06:49

Think we need a contract RNS +5mill to kick-start this into life.

[tiltonboy] 30/9/2018 20:22

More likely to be buying for their IHT portfolios

[thompsonminor] 30/9/2018 13:01

Not sure what the latest bulk purchase of shares by Killik & Co tells us. Late Friday afternoon announcement. Adding 1% to their previous holding (from 5% to 6%) suggests on the one hand a serious investor taking TPG seriously. On the other hand, there will be fewer shares trading publicly, so share price could remain in doldrums until next set of trading results. Or....someone closely linked with a takeover has got in early before any formal announcement.

[timojelly] 26/9/2018 12:27

Maybe TPG are buying back shares LOL

[paulgo] 26/9/2018 11:17

....and another

[timojelly] 20/9/2018 17:59

Another million trade gone thru.

[cerrito] 18/9/2018 23:35

PA
I do not have access to the Cenkos note.
I understand the current market expectations for 2019 are £41.5m,£4.8m and £2.2m for revenue,adj ebitda and adj pbt.
My assumption is that this is pre M&A but have nothing to base this on.

[pavey ark] 18/9/2018 09:28

Cerrito, in the land of the becks and fells this week so I've not had a chance to look at your figures in detail.
I expect that Cenkos have produced an update based on these results ,have you managed to get a look ?
Not really impressed with Cenkos as they are the house broker and I strongly suspect that they are closer to TPG management than they should be but they are the only show in town.
Either Cenkos are taking close direction or their analyst is related to Mystic Meg.

[timojelly] 17/9/2018 18:42

2mill at 7.2p looks interesting

[cerrito] 17/9/2018 18:36

I understand that their reading of market expectations is for revenue to be £35.9m. Given H1 revenue was £16m they are saying expectations for H2 revenue to be £19.9m a useful increase from £15.9 m in H2 2017.
Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be £3.8m; I am v irritated that they have not given us an explicit figure as they have done in the past. My calculation using the definition used in the 2017 Interims is an adjusted EBITDA of £350 k but appreciate you folks double checking. That would mean adjusted EBITDA of £3.4 m in H2 compared to £1m in H217 which if I have understood right would be v good.
Adjusted PBT is £1.5 m but no idea what adjustments made and how to compare it.
Financial PR 101: Put in the Interims the same yardsticks used in market expectations .

[timojelly] 16/9/2018 18:56

Like getting blood out of a stone.

[catch007] 16/9/2018 18:25

Have to admit a sense of disappointment that the share price has not responded to a very good and promising set of results. Proving to be long haul indeed.....hopefully a few more decent orders and news on the acquisition front may tilt the needle in the coming period. GLA

[pavey ark] 13/9/2018 08:45

I've just done a quick check on the announced (RNS) contract awards in H1 and I make the total to be £19.9m.
The total order intake was £29.5m.

I am very pleased to see almost £10m in smaller orders.

As far as I'm aware the usual rule is that they announce orders over £500k.

[pavey ark] 12/9/2018 10:59

This management have shown a very deft touch when it comes to acquisitions :
Wellman,ALS, Polaris and only a slight blip with SSM (circumstances changed here and not necessarily a bad initial purchase (only £900k)).

The current cash pile gives me great reassurance and when it is spent I am pretty confident it will be spent in a way that will enhance its worth above the £20m value it has.

The idea that this cash pile is a bad thing and must be spent and spent quickly is bad enough but a share buy back would certainly reduce the company prospects considerably.

This company is 75% owned by institutional investors with an average price north of 10p so give it a go and see how many you could buy back for £20m then work out the value of the remaining shares....not near 10p.

Let organic growth and potential unfold AND invest your £20m with the skill shown in the past and you could be looking at 15p in a couple of years.

NB 3p to 15p in five years is a share price growth of almost 40% compound !!

Before this 15p figure is thrown around too much lets look at what is required.

15p would require an EBITDA of c. £11.5m
I expect an EBITDA of close to £4m this year with organic growth increasing that to close to £7m over the following two years so the £20 million if spent this year has to be producing over £4m EBITDA in the two years after the acquisitions.

These are challenging but achievable figures and they become easier if the market eventually warms to TPG.

[catch007] 12/9/2018 10:33

I believe the majority of Pi's would suggest the company is currently undervalued and I agree an 8p - 10p range would seem very reasonable based on the latest trading results, the directors need well above 9.25p+ for their share options I have bought TPG as a value play with an average buying price of 6.2p and fully expect a multiple of that price in the longer term. I remain very bullish on future prospects however we should be cognizant to understand the company continues to post losses currently and a move to profitability will be a key turning point for the business. I also believe that high quality acquisitions of complementary businesses which are earnings enhancing will help build scale, reach and the overall TPG business offering. I am not suggesting blowing all of the cash pile as we are in volatile markets and contracts need cash to be fulfilled however as I have previously posted 21million sitting on deposit earning next to nothing is not business effective use of capital and deploying some money to good use to drive earnings would be helpful. GLA