Tp Share Discussion Threads

[catch007] 12/9/2018 10:33

I believe the majority of Pi's would suggest the company is currently undervalued and I agree an 8p - 10p range would seem very reasonable based on the latest trading results, the directors need well above 9.25p+ for their share options I have bought TPG as a value play with an average buying price of 6.2p and fully expect a multiple of that price in the longer term. I remain very bullish on future prospects however we should be cognizant to understand the company continues to post losses currently and a move to profitability will be a key turning point for the business. I also believe that high quality acquisitions of complementary businesses which are earnings enhancing will help build scale, reach and the overall TPG business offering. I am not suggesting blowing all of the cash pile as we are in volatile markets and contracts need cash to be fulfilled however as I have previously posted 21million sitting on deposit earning next to nothing is not business effective use of capital and deploying some money to good use to drive earnings would be helpful. GLA

[bullster] 12/9/2018 10:17

.
.

I wonder what the share price would be if TPG where to use the £20m cash pile to buy back its own shares.

15p surely, timojelly.

.
.

[timojelly] 12/9/2018 08:59

Well, MS unit should be worth more than the entire current mkt cap. Add in the cash, all the other business, growth prospects and further contracts and acquisitions around the corner...... I believe the market should be valuing TPG at double its current price NOW. 15p.

[pavey ark] 12/9/2018 08:27

Cerrito: the only time I contacted them directly was to complain about their repeated use of "market expectations" when the figures were not available to private investors so please send your email.
Your second point has validity but the recent change is really only a name change from MS to CaPS.
"I do have a concern on the concentration span of management."
I can't go along with that one.
Space probably came with Polaris and they are just exploiting the potential that they have.
Given all that is going on within the company and the change of accounting rules the cash flow figure must be seen as a movable feast.

For my part I have always had confidence in this management and these results suggest to me that things are most certainly heading in the right direction.

After these results I tried to look as objectively as I could at the results and the company prospects.
Using every ratio and standard valuation metric I could find I concluded that using these conventional measurement tools the "correct" share price should be c. 8p.

The problem with using these tools and applying the current figures is that I they take no account of growth rate or the trajectory the company is on.
As my previous posts have shown, the current results should be seen in the context of the previous results (say the last 3 or 4 years).

There is every indication that the company is heading along this steep upward curve.

One of the measures I used was a multiple of 10 times EBITDA(close to industry average) and if you add the cash back in you get 8p but there are many growth companies valued at 15 times or more!!

A 15 times valuation gives c. 10.5p

This company is being valued very conservatively.

I note that one poster was considering selling and and buying something with a bit more oomph.
If the TPG price is 8p at the end of the year the compound growth rate is close to 40% over the last three years and for this to continue the share price should be 11.5p by the end of 2019.
This is certainly good enough for me.

[cerrito] 11/9/2018 23:34

Two things irritated me.
First is they refer to market expectations without them telling us what they consider these to be. Any of you know what Management meant? If not I will send them an email.

The second is they continue fiddling around with the Segment Analysis so difficult to know what is going on at the micro level.
Good that in the half we got back into an operating cash flow surplus but still well below 2016 levels.
As someone who has reduced his holding because of concern at lack of depth of management I was pleased to read many references to the focus they are putting into this.
Cannot recall them focusing on the space market before...I bring this up because I do have a concern on the concentration span of management.
They made a good point about the increased proportion of revenue coming from services compared to T&E. The 2016 twelvemonth revenue figures were £19m for Engineering :£2 m for services.

All in all happy with what I have and looking forward to all this good activity generating some profit.

[timojelly] 11/9/2018 18:33

Looks like that 2 million offload held us back today.

[timojelly] 11/9/2018 18:29

Sp wise, like getting blood out of a stone but IC may spread the word a little more.

[pavey ark] 11/9/2018 17:19

Fairy detailed summary of results in IC online.

Very positive: reiterated "BUY" advice.

[pavey ark] 11/9/2018 14:40

Yes,I think I have to say that these results are excellent.

The progress of the CaPS unit (previously MS) will result in a further boost to the bottom line,possibly at the year end and certainly next year.
The company has said that the investment in this unit takes about a year to come through.
The forecast was for £1.2m EBITDA in 2019 but I think it could be even better.

Unfortunately we no longer have a split for T&E but it is obvious that the AMC is still costing money but is now producing and delivering to customers.
Energy (oil gas) orders improving.

Ignoring acquisitions,the improvement in the engineering side plus the tremendous advances at CaPS will produce a large organic step up in EBITDA, certainly in 2019.
Obviously Maritime continues to do very, very well.

To put the very impressive progress of the company into a simple set of figures

EBITDA 2016: £1.1m 2017: £2.6m 2018: £4.0m E

Revenue. £21.2m. £30.0m. £40.0m E

Order Book. £17m. £30.0m. £60.0m E

I don't know how the experts define a "growth company" but TPG is not currently rated in a way that reflects the progress being made.

[catch007] 11/9/2018 09:39

I have yet to go through the finer detail with a deep dive into the numbers however the interims are very well presented results with sound explanations on every aspect of the business and progress being made across the business units. Legacy payments such as the £300k ALS earn out will fall away and I am pleased to see the company has given clear information on the those areas in which it is looking at acquisitions. It has retained the cash pile to facilitate purchases whilst meeting increased turnover and contract working cashflow requirements. TPG looking to broaden its international reach in USA is very interesting and the consulting business is taking shape nicely. So no real surprises as expected the company is in good shape and the long term value is being realized. I don't think PA revenue estimates will be far away I am hopeful however that there may be one or two larger contracts announced in the forthcoming period from the established frameworks that give extra impetus. GLA

[thompsonminor] 11/9/2018 09:32

Hugely encouraging update, especially when - as the statement repeats - "Our business is typically weighted into the second half of the year and so these results are even more noteworthy". This confirms my belief that this is a long-term hold, with great prospects highlighted on multiple fronts: increased revenues, reduced operating loss, increased order book, and maintained cash pile. There's reassurance too on the acquisitions front: "At present, we are in discussions with prospects involved in the supply of ruggedised military systems, project software systems and space mission support services." No matter what the financials state (as at 30 June), the prospects for the company are the real gems in today's update.

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2018 08:50

PA,

I look forward to your analysis when you get the opportunity.

Interesting to note that they have given a little more information on acquisition targets. Hopefully a nice earnings enhancing deal on the way.

[timojelly] 11/9/2018 07:34

Looking really good is an understatement and still a massive pile of cash.

[pavey ark] 11/9/2018 07:33

Heading out so only a quick look here.

Very significant increase in order book, revenue and operating profit.

Change in accounting/reporting rules and an adjustment to last years figures make things very complicated and confusing but the figures certainly look good to me.
(most expenses now have to come off P/L account and not cap. ex)

Looks like we are heading for full year revenue of £40m-£45m, EBITDA of c.£4m and an order book of over £60m.

These figures are a massive advance on figures from only 2-3 years ago.

[timojelly] 10/9/2018 14:42

Good looking update.... Could be interesting tomorrow

[rolling ronnie] 10/9/2018 13:41

If you type www.tpgroup.uk.com into the address bar the new website is there. You might need to clear your browser cache to google to it, it's being hosted by another provider.

:-)

[thompsonminor] 10/9/2018 12:57

The company website has been down for some time today. In preparation for a major update/announcement tomorrow, perhaps?

[catch007] 06/9/2018 17:34

Small trading volume today - all sells. Given the apparent progress made on several fronts by TPG it seems a bit strange to me to see selling ahead of the results next week. I am not expecting much by way of surprises but the actual figures will drive market sentiment, EBITDA will certainly show a significant uptick however I hope this will finally start to transition into a tangible bottom line improvement. In a jittery and volatile market no debt, a cash pile and strong work flow pipeline gives me some confidence in the future prospects. I await the results with much interest and some positive expectations. GLA

[pavey ark] 05/9/2018 08:47

I was doing a bit of background reading last night and I was especially interested in the TKMS order and its progress.

When the contract was announced in August 2016 I considered it to be very significant as TKMS are the major builder of non nuclear submarines and a leader in fuel cell technology.(as is TPG)

"The initial contract with TKMS is worth a minimum of GBP 1.65 million, with the potential for multiple further units." August 2016

This order was almost certainly for the first 218 type boat for the Singapore navy.
The initial order was for two boats but in mid 2017 a further two were ordered and the steel cut in mid 2018.

As we know TPG has orders coming in from all sides but a couple of important points (reminders).

1. Note the cost of these more sophisticated systems, not long ago non nuclear kit was selling at under £1m.
2. Only twenty percent of income is the initial order with an additional 80% coming over the life of the submarine

Every set of equipment sold ensures a 25/30 year service income.

In addition I expect the French to sign up a long term service agreement similar to the RN

Work will start soon on the Australian 12 boat fleet.

Very strong contacts/contracts with far eastern shipbuilders and they are building more and more submarines.

The Trident four boat programme is gathering significant pace and I expect the AMC to pick up very specialist low volume(one off) contracts.

I have a wish list as to what I want to see in the half year results but I suspect that the management statement may be even more important the actual figures.

[catch007] 04/9/2018 17:20

tj most of the trades in the past week have been sells today we have seen one very substantial buy circa 2.5m sharesand two other large buys coming in …lets see if there is further movement in run up to the results.

[timojelly] 04/9/2018 16:50

Trading volume

[thebigchap] 04/9/2018 14:27

what gives tj

[timojelly] 04/9/2018 13:42

Holdings rns shortly?

[timojelly] 04/9/2018 13:42

Hello hello what's all this then..?