Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[sunbed44] 01/8/2021 23:47

yeah I know that but ive always wanted one and trying make enough in shares to buy one before winter comes big business in wales with all this staycation stuff

[soggy] 01/8/2021 23:32

Different kind of oil...but I'm sure you know that ;-)

[sunbed44] 01/8/2021 22:14

hope this goes up a lot so I can buy a chip shop in wales

[thebull8] 01/8/2021 11:02

Posted this a few weeks ago after I bought at around 2.4p. If Zephry can achieve £75m market cap then I do not see why Advance won't. In for the pre spud run up. Will look to sell before drill and hopefully reinvest something here

[king suarez] 01/8/2021 10:20

Apologies for O/T if not appropriate, but has anyone here looked at Advance Energy (ADV)? The board on ADVFN is pretty quiet, and not too active on LSE either.

I have bought a position in 'advance' of their appraisal drill in on the Buffalo Oil Field - Timor Leste and thinking of adding whilst it is quiet still.

In short, this is an old basin that had peaked at 45k bopd and was shut in 2004 at 4k bopd. They have a 50-50 partnership with another company to appraise another part of the basin that they reckon has over 30m barrels still to give and expect to be able to produce 40k bopd initially between them - short field life of 5 or 6 years, but 60% of the oil will be out of the ground in the first 2 years. The company raised the money for appraisal costs at 2.6p and the share price is still at that level with drilling due to commence by end Oct and results before Xmas.

The selling point is that the CPR has given a 95% chance of geological success(!) and 86% chance of successful development with an NPV of $170m net to Advance at $50 oil - market cap is still under £30m. The cash flow projections look fantastic.

Feels like a good risk/reward to me, but wondered if anyone here had looked at it and either bought in or, alternatively, has seen something not to like?

Thanks

[pro_s2009] 01/8/2021 03:06

If you cannot look to the future and see the potential positive, you'll never make serious money in the stock market. Its all about risk taking for the big wins - and finding the stocks with the biggest wins for the smallest risk.

Else, why not just buy safe stocks yielding 5% and sleep all day and night and no need to post on ADVFN....

Thats why I see TXP as a big win potential with minimal risk. Even if Royston fails you will see 15,000 BOEPD in 2022. Its discovered, its flow tested, its sat behind pipe waiting to produce ? Its not "fairy land" dreaming of discovering or maybe flowing something, its discovered and flowed and proven.

The share price currently is not reflecting that or any of the upside potential. So yes.......looking into the crystal ball may seem over optimistic, but if you dont know where you might be going, how can you plan to get there ? You have to understand the potential best case and base case....and that allows you to position yourself for the best exposure to the gain and minimal exposure to pain in the long term. So potential best and base cases for 2022 and 2023 production should be on peoples minds because that is investment, not gambling.

[lauders] 01/8/2021 02:22

Personally I think they will end 2022 with 30,000 BOEPD, this being an extra 5000 from Royston-1 and 2 development wells on Cascadura - giving a real 2022 exit rate of 30K BOEPD.

Since Royston hasn't even spudded yet Pro that is being way too unrealistic! Best to wait to see if TXP find anything down there before making such strange predictions. Having said that, I certainly hope you are correct! Think someone said you are way too optimistic the other day. Perhaps they are on to something!

[pro_s2009] 01/8/2021 02:00

Personally I think they will end 2022 with 30,000 BOEPD, this being an extra 5000 from Royston-1 and 2 development wells on Cascadura - giving a real 2022 exit rate of 30K BOEPD.

I believe, my estimates, the average production rate for 2022 will be 15,000 BOEPD for the whole year (12 months production average).

[pro_s2009] 01/8/2021 01:43

Yes, end of Q2 2022 is the worst real case......so for now, best run with the worst case and anything earlier is surprisingly good news.

[1domus] 31/7/2021 21:09

End of Q2 for Casca sounds ultra conservative.

[pro_s2009] 31/7/2021 11:18

Cascadura is also quick, once they get approval. Its only 2 kilometers from the main gas pipeline.

I am estimating end of Q2 2022 for first gas from Cascadura, but if they really want to, and the Minister delivers with quick approvals, it could be quicker. There is no Shell to complicate at Cascadura, its directly into the main pipeline just 2000 meters away.

[davidblack] 31/7/2021 10:56

If the new drill has success on its four warm up wells on the legacy area don’t bet against a significant easy win coming out of there.

The reason is the infrastructure is in place, likely to be oil rather than gas and there will be no need to wait for environmental approvals from existing locations. So maybe some very fast paybacks if they get a break.

[che7win] 31/7/2021 10:47

One other observation, it's evident this month (July) from the chart that bulls are starting to take control here.The eagle eyed will notice this month that we have a rising support line on the chart. Every time we have fallen, it has bounced from a higher and rising price.In other words, the bottom is in here, there isn't enough volume or pressure yet, but these prices will not stay around long.KIST chart I hope will come our way soon, we look poised to spring upwards...

[che7win] 31/7/2021 10:34

I think when it’s actually confirmed that Coho is piped in and producing $500,000 per month revenue, market will react.

Market is still sceptical, when we see tangible evidence that discoveries translate to revenue (and a wall of cash soon after) then share price will rerate sharply.

Market is a bit slow - cash flow and dividends cannot be ignored forever.
5% dividend (for anyone buying at current share price) with a timeline of 12-18 months should be an easily achievable base line, I do hope so.

[sleveen] 31/7/2021 08:40

Pro

I hope you are proven correct with the above in due course.

The link gives [...]sadly.

[pro_s2009] 31/7/2021 08:31

Just some quick thoughts on production, so excuse any errors.....

Given the 15,000 BOEPD 2022 production target on Xaviers presentation, I thought I would run through the figures and of course, the upsides.

Assuming the 4 news wells in the South West oil licenses commencing in Q4 21 deliver us with a total oil production of 2000 bopd in 2022.

2022 Production

2000 BOPD OIL (South West license areas)
+
3450 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura Deep 1) based on initial 20mmscf/d (can rise to 25)
+
400 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura Deep 1)
+
6900 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura 1 ST) based on initial 40mmscf/d (can rise to 50)
+
1100 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura 1 ST)
+
1700 BOEPD GAS (Coho-1)

Total = 15,550 BOEPD from when Cascadura is online.


However.....there is potential upside by year end !

Chinook-1 Cruse tie in
Possible extra 350 BOEPD to 500 BOEPD GAS

Royston-1 success case
Possible extra 5000 BOEPD GAS by year end

Casca-1 and Casca-Deep-1 continue cleaning up and finished 2022 year end +15mmscf/d which is extra 2550 BOEPD


So base case :

TXP will be producing circa

3700 BOEPD average in H1 2022

and

15,500 BOEPD average in H2 2022


And if Royston-1 succeeds, TXP should exit 2022 with circa 20,000 BOEPD production (or even 22,500 BOEPD if the Casca wells clean up more)



It should be noted that, apart from Royston-1 and Chinook-1 Cruse - ALL THE WELLS ARE DRILLED, PROVEN AND FLOW TESTED and behind pipe waiting to produce. Basically zero risk.

The upsides - Chinook-1 Cruse is on pressure test after flowing. Royston is to be drilled soon.

The thing that suddenly strikes is that there will be no infill drilling at Cascadura in H1 2022. TXP will utilise the new rig to drill the 4 oil production wells in the South West starting Q4 2021 and then will likely not use the new rig until we get into H2 2022, where they might use it for around 200 days drilling Guabine, then Steelhead then Krakken. I believe the rig contract is they only have to use it for 120 days per year minimum.

If they infill drill at Cascadura, year end 2022 production could hit 30,000 BOEPD.


If you want to crystal ball 2023

Infill drilling at Cascadura 200,000mmscf/d = 34,000 BOEPD
3 producing wells on Coho averaging 10mmscf/d = 5,000 BOEPD
Infill drilling at Royston 200,000mmscf/d = 34,000 BOEPD
South west oil license area production

Plus Guabine+Steelhead+Krakken.......... so TXP ends 2023 with say minimum 73,000 BOEPD or maybe anything up to 100,000 BOEPD. And thats excluding drilling the oil targets updip at Chinook.

Damn exciting if you ask me :) Thats a company literally throwing cash out and yet, still over 200 locations to drill in the South West and nearly 20 more new additional targets to drill at Ortoire, and some deep Herrera prospects in the South West on top of all that.

Massive production and yet still, very exciting upside from exploration.

There may be a boring 6 to 8 months between Royston-1 completing and the next "big" exploration well, as TXP complete the production infrastructure of Cascadura and hopefully start on the Royston production EIA and then production infrastructure - but my oh my......H2 2022 onwards this is going to be a wall of cash generating beast, drilling big upside exploration wells (over 21 targets), self funded and paying lovely dividends. During that boring 6 to 8 months there will be a move away by the hot short term money and more long tern investing money will come in taking a position ahead of the big production increases and then dividends from 2023 onwards.

I think I have just talked myself into buying some more........LOL :)

[pro_s2009] 31/7/2021 02:43

85K trade, reported after hours, looks like it was a "fill as much as possible" buy order, which created the spike up in the morning and they took the sells following the rest of the day to fill it, then late reported.

Hopefully they come back with another buy order Monday morning, most welcome :)


sleveen, I have made a tinyurl link for the Reddit thread, as the link in the header here is not direct click. Can you try to put this link in below for the Reddit thread.




.

[captainfatcat] 30/7/2021 20:46

Interesting info thanks

[davidblack] 30/7/2021 18:58

And if it’s an open offer to only registered holders and suspended good luck with that!

As I said the threat of this is normally enough to put shorters on the back foot and if they don’t then the lenders normally call the stock back anyway to avoid admin chaos.

Apparently it’s an old trick from the 1970s.

[thebull8] 30/7/2021 18:20

I spoke to IG regarding this issue while I was short Hammerson. They said you had to short the right issue. I closed my short

[swanvesta] 30/7/2021 16:42

Yes, but don't the rights that registered owners get (as part of a rights issue) do just that?

Let's say, for example, my broker lends out my shares to a shorter, who sells them in the market. Whoever buys those borrowed shares will now be registered owner, and will get the rights to purchase new shares. But I will still expect to get my rights as well! So who provides those? My broker? I doubt it. I'm pretty sure the broker will lay off that risk to the borrower/shorter.

[davidblack] 30/7/2021 15:41

No, the rights go to the actual registered owners.

The whole concept is to change the value of the shares borrowed for the shorting by giving extra value to the underlying legal owners.

That in turn impacts the “Plain” shares borrowed.

One version of the trick might be to give them the right to buy a warrant at 1p to buy more shares at 40p.

Normally the threat of that sort of action would have the shorters racing to cover themselves.

[swanvesta] 30/7/2021 15:35

DB, how does a rights issue help them? Shorts would have to stump up the rights for the shares they've borrowed. Of course they'd be paid for them (at the discounted price), but they'd end up even shorter.

[davidblack] 30/7/2021 15:29

Rather liked one of the early slides which had in the top left a 15,000 bopd target for 2022.