Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[pro_s2009] 29/7/2021 09:21

At the behest of requests, couple of pics of the rig on the way to, and being set up at, Royston.

[pro_s2009] 29/7/2021 09:15

The first payments on any debt are easily deferred. They can borrow now with first payments due late in 2023....thats very simple and straight forward.

Their first payment on the loan taken out in 2020 is Q3 2022.

If they took a loan out now, their first payment would be Q4 2023, so its very simple. They can easily take a loan out for 30 million US$ with first payment due Q4 2023 and that will suffice to full Cascadura and hopefully Rosyton production as well and they could clear both loans with full early payment in 2023.

So, with proven, certified reserves it would be highly dubious for any equity placing to occur and not the use of debt, especially with the Minister saying he wants all the gas on line asap and is cutting red tape here there and everywhere to push for more gas online.

Its a very interesting scenario and one which will end either in use of debt, or a placing or a lowball takeover offer.

That 9 million short is there for a reason - its not there just for fun.

[dunderheed] 29/7/2021 09:06

FGS where are the facts that this "short interest" is not just part of a legitimate hedging strategy?

[che7win] 29/7/2021 09:01

Herschel, Your point is valid, as is Pro's.The company has told us they will manage exploration according to cash flow projections, and debt funding is available.PB is acutely aware of the short interest, and I assume will be keen to blow shorters out of the water.I would say he is well aware of the games the markets play.

[herschel k] 29/7/2021 08:46

I agree buffy

Pro is missing one very important point in his analysis

It's fine to say use debt funding until cascadura is online......but history tells us there are significant delays in T&T getting big assets producing.

So......how do you fund that debt without the production, assuming the worst case that said production is delayed further?

Answer - you can't and that's when the funders come in and take the assets for a pittance.

I don't like equity raises at suppressed prices but at least they don't put the company at risk.

I'm sure Pro will tell me the above is nonsense given where TXP are.......but I don't care.

Good businesses don't risk quality assets by going into debt when they can't control the primary thing that will service that debt going forwards.

[bernieman] 29/7/2021 08:45

Of course PB will be fully aware of everything going on and all the various tactics. I trust PB to navigate those no problem. But I do think it's important that shareholders have a voice and the company is seen to listen to and acknowledge those voices. I've sent 2 emails to IR this year, plus a third asking for some reply, to which I get silence. If IR can't even send a 'no comment' reply, then the only option is to email PB direct.

[buffythebuffoon] 29/7/2021 08:10

Hi Pro,

I honestly think you’ll achieve two things by sending an email with the comments you have said you’ll make in your last few posts.

1) You’ll give Paul Baay a good laugh.
2) Future communication with PB will not be the same as it has been.

Seriously Pro, you are showing signs of not only being seriously head over heels in love with this company, but somewhat stressed.

If you really think anything you have said will be either enlightening to him in any way or even slightly thought provoking then I’m afraid you have developed a false sense of importance.

I am assuming you are a night worker from the timing of your posts, but if not, you really do need to get more sleep.

Buffy

[bernieman] 29/7/2021 07:29

Thanks Pro - I think many shareholders would completely agree and back that stance. I presume any takeover would need 75% majority... which means PIs need to pull together 52 million shares between them to defend that 25% position. If you assumed the board defend that position with their own share holding, it would be interesting to see if the LTH PI's have enough shareholding to block any hostile bid ?

[rabblrouzr] 29/7/2021 05:13

A hard knee to the groin...hopefully, Baay is connected to Financial Higher-ups, should it come to that. Seems we are penned-in otherwise, and the Royston 10,000 ft drill committment could be our Waterloo . Damn !

Long Term hopes vaporized...at least in this moment.

Wonder what dubious connections Premier Miton has beyond his large Holding in TXP... I am a bit suspicious of Miton... and also Wright...but will say no more than that .

[rabblrouzr] 29/7/2021 04:00

Pro-S .... superb explanation, and Thank-you so very much for the detailed points you have made. I finally understand the reason(s) for price suppression.
For so long and on so many Companies , the mantra of reducing Debt has been of over-riding concern and perhaps somewhat justifiably in several circumstances, but this is the first time, I have seen a reasoned explanation for involving Debt to thwart, while protecting the Company against hostile Takeover manoevering.

Sure do hope that You have Baay's ear and that you've already an idea as to who the Judas on the Board may be. This is going to be very interesting!

[rabblrouzr] 28/7/2021 19:55

Overall, a positive tone I would say... just not understanding why the Market is being so obtuse! Thought perhaps I had missed a negative somewheres along the way!

18 months..will seem interminable at this rate!

[ballymoss18] 28/7/2021 18:28

Have you read today's posts, that may help. Just forget about your shares and come back in 18 months time.

[thebull8] 28/7/2021 18:25

I wouldn't pay much attention to the buy/sells. These are never accurate. London Stock Exchange does not share data on whether a transaction is a buy or sell. So these brokerage use an algorithm to determine whether it was a buy or sell but if often wrong

[rabblrouzr] 28/7/2021 17:02

Enlighten me please. With all the News and photos as of late, and Today, the Seller Volume in U.K. at 96,000 approx far exceeds the Buy Volume @ approx 6,600 ...
Sellers keen on off-loading for WHY ? Is it something to do with Shorts? Naked Shorts perhaps?, or Month-end ?
Can't make sense of it. Somebody must have better insight than I.

[inthemix] 28/7/2021 16:30

Have the shorts come down yet? Surely we will see some progress on the share price building upto Royston results in a few months time?

[davidblack] 28/7/2021 15:43

XM’s comments on the seismic

“I'm really proud of the Trinidad team in coordinating and executing this seismic survey amidst a pandemic, state of emergency and one of the wettest dry seasons on record.

Kudos to Upstream Management Limited, our local seismic shop, for being nimble, proactive and determined to getting it done.

Thanks also to all the support and guidance from the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries, and to the Honourable Minister Stuart Young for visiting the survey and detonating a shot.

We have tried, tested and proven a lot in this survey and it will certainly be a template for more to come. #exploration

Kapil Dev Samuel Ragbir Sean S. Ali Ian Sankarsingh”


The interesting bit is:

“We have tried, tested and proven a lot in this survey and it will certainly be a template for more to come. #exploration”

That seems to be a message that things are warming up? Or is that 2+2=5 logic?

[davidblack] 28/7/2021 15:37

Apparently BPTT is going to struggle with delivering gas till 2024 at the latest.



That looks like a daily deficit that Cascadura and if successful Royston could substantially fill?

If Royston comes good I think there will be extreme pressure on the NGC to get them on stream especially as they have just lost $250m on the line 1 plant that they would surely like to start recovering?

[inthemix] 28/7/2021 15:21

The 1470 at 85.66p is my small top up ":^)

[inthemix] 28/7/2021 15:20

Just confirming, buys are going through as sells today.

[buffythebuffoon] 28/7/2021 15:02

At 15.02 he still hadn’t voted down your last post. Must be time for mummy to feed him.

Buffy

[ngms27] 28/7/2021 14:38

So we have a phantom thumbs downer...

[ngms27] 28/7/2021 14:12

Yes, come back in six months, should be materially different then :)