Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[herman007] 11/8/2021 12:39

Why Friday? Q2 is tomorrow, right?

[buffythebuffoon] 11/8/2021 12:24

More importantly if Domus, our mole, is correct, we should have an interesting RNS either tomorrow or Friday.

Buffy

[thebull8] 11/8/2021 11:26

Swaps don't need to be reported in regards to position reporting....

[davidblack] 11/8/2021 10:00

If the long is in Toronto the notification is above 10%.

Aim is the secondary market although it’s rules are fully applied Re the U.K. register.

So no disclosure required if that’s how it’s being done.

[stockport loser] 11/8/2021 09:55

I agree, no ii would put £9m down on a short punt on Txp when Cas is worth the share price If it was a short on known planned placing, then given it was March when opened that's doubtful. March is when Chinook issues would have been known to some. Are we confident that if Miton loaned out 9m shares they would have to report it?It's clearly a hedge, no matter what entity holds it and given it probably has an av open price of 130p or more they have no need to close it till results.

[buffythebuffoon] 11/8/2021 09:13

So while the stock is on loan you are saying that if the entity needs to declare that as well? I.e. IG hold 9m less?

If not the figures won’t add up.

All this aside, it seems that nobody has any idea how many separate beneficiaries this involves. I would imagine that even if it’s not predominantly one big player, they are not so stupid as to have that exposure when news could break at any time.

Look at the upside-downside ratio. No big player would act so stupidly.

If it’s not a hedge, and I’m still of the mind that it is, why would anybody do that? Surely it’s too many shares for it to be a large number of amateur traders?

Buffy

[pro_s2009] 11/8/2021 08:20

Rule 17 of the AIM Rules requires, inter alia, that shareholders notify an AIM listed company once their holding is three percent or more, and changes there to.

[pro_s2009] 11/8/2021 08:18

buffy - long positions are notifiable.

Nobody can "hedge" without making their long position smaller - its the net total amount of shares held.

If Miton "hedged" 9 million shares short - they would have to notify their holding has reduced down from 16 million to 7 million shares.

No major holder has notified.

Therefore its not a hedge is the assumption.

[dunderheed] 11/8/2021 08:07

21551 - absolutely agree buffy.

[buffythebuffoon] 11/8/2021 08:05

If the shorts are predominantly part of a hedging strategy, where typically the short position is a fair bit smaller than the long position, I’m not so sure it would be closed in advance of drilling news on Royston.

The hedge is there to profit from any temporary drop after bad news (in this example, obviously, Royston not bringing home the bacon) They would profit from the larger long position. Given that they would take the view that we do, that this is going in one direction longer term, this is just a way of protecting themselves in the shorter term, and possibly enabling them to then take an even bigger position for the push to the moon and beyond. Particularly if the market reacts very badly to a Royston duster.

That’s how I see it anyway.

Buffy

[pro_s2009] 11/8/2021 01:18

The fun might be here in September. The 9 million share short was pretty safe over July and August and even early September - as those are "dead" periods where everyone is on holiday and minimal volumes occur on many stocks.

September is rollover month being end of Q3.

With Royston-1 logging results in late October and flow testing results November - will the short keep it hanging or will they start to close their position (or some of it) into end of September/end Q3.

A few more weeks of paltry volumes for sure, but things should heat up in September a bit imo.

[sleveen] 10/8/2021 16:05

David, Thanks for both of the above posts.

Very encouraging.

[davidblack] 10/8/2021 15:37

Final thought for the day.

Feels like this week is the start of Touchstone’s third phase.

First phase lead to the Coho discovery and turned this from a hopeful to something small but with substance.

Second phase, company raises serious capital and drills Cascadura. It becomes a star but sadly the Chinook mystery trims that upside back by 50%, with the shareholders returning to the gritty hard core holders while the “Agnostic Share Travellers” exit.

The third phase, if it comes good at Royston and Cascadura gets hooked up promptly should double the previous highs taking this to £3.50 ish. £5 if the results are stunning.

And then TXP is either bid for or it’s a hold your breath and does Kraken give T&T its mega Cretaceous onshore discovery like the Exxon Liza play further south.

Thankfully the current climate emergency means big oil doesn’t want to be seen as buying juniors even though gas is the only bridge fuel for the period of energy change.

[davidblack] 10/8/2021 15:36

Sleeven a chat over coffee with an old hand oil structural geologist who had never heard of TXP until I asked him what his view was.

He marvelled at 500 feet of homogenous oil bearing rock onshore and commented it’s a bit cheaper developing it than on a big rig with 40 foot waves!

Not really a stock market guy but even he bought. He has a very healthy BP pension!

I paid for the coffee and even bought cake!

[sleveen] 10/8/2021 14:00

David, what brought about your epiphany on Cascadura?

[herman007] 10/8/2021 13:58

Not comparing spud and drill results. The first may or may not send the share price up 10%, the latter may send it up over 100% if the results are good/exceptional.

[pro_s2009] 10/8/2021 13:42

Fair value on Royston-1 successful discovery AND flow test......would be around 250p to 300p a share.

The share price is where it is as there are nearly 9 million shares sold short creating a massive depression over it......but they have to close at some point and buy back.

[mynameiskhan] 10/8/2021 13:32

Agreed. Spud will have no or little impact on share price. It will be drill result, that will be main catalyst for share price

[herman007] 10/8/2021 13:32

Because the spud is four months delayed and one of several reasons the share price has remained at ridiculous levels.

[stockport loser] 10/8/2021 13:19

Why would a spud be bought into? Its widely expected and adds risk as well as reward.

[awise355] 10/8/2021 13:09

Someone has pulled the buy trigger

[herman007] 10/8/2021 13:08

With regards to the operational update on Thursday,(ref Domus1) the market seems to have no expecations. With all the significant delays and the potential of Royston, one would think that even a rumor of an imminent spud would impact the share price.

[davidblack] 10/8/2021 12:43

Apparently I may have been simply wrong on my disappointment that they only tested 200ft out of the 500ft at Cascadura Deep.

In the case of Cascadura the whole 500ft appears to be one giant homogenous zone of rock.

Given that, apparently the 200ft zone will it appear be fine for draining the whole 500ft, with the bottom 300ft expanding upwards as gas is drawn from above pushing out the gas above it, which apparently should enable very high recoveries.

So turns out they did have “A cunning plan” after all.