Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 11:10

Really only one person panicked and sold a 47K lump, thats all been purchased (some by me under 99p thanks).......so yes, might end the day blue now.

Buy price ticking up, will soon be full offer price of 101p to buy if this carries on.

[palace pete] 27/10/2020 11:00

May end up level or blue ftse coming back

[magicmayhem] 27/10/2020 09:15

Also just bought a small top up in my SIPP (10k). Although my gut feeling is this might go to 95 before rising further

[bernieman] 27/10/2020 09:10

Same here... great to get a chance to top up under £1 again, knowing the share price got to 88p pre-Chinook and what we now know about the results and possible deep connections! Very patiently buying each month as funds come available - so I'm in no hurry for the share price to get ahead of itself !

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 09:03

What people need to know is........the old fashioned vaccines that work well, are safe are all what we know as "inactivated virus" vaccines......like the Sinopharm one.

However, the EU and US companies are trying to make "new technology" ones....RNA vaccines.........these are unproven and more dangerous.........which is of course why massive testing is needed.

They are trying to hide and delay the news of Sinopharm while they rush to get their RNA vaccines through to approval.

But be fully aware.......the Sinopharm vaccine is there, its old proven tech - and it works !!!!!!!!

[wheniamfree] 27/10/2020 09:01

Just added 20k at just under 100p

[holdbucket] 27/10/2020 08:59

Also added again. Sad to see it dip below £1 but it has allowed me add within our ISA's. I've taken my stake from a rapidly rising small pharma shooting up on no news!! I think the market is affected by 'Bookie goers' chasing the next NCYT etc.' Good for us who know the story here.

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 08:59

DB.

Sinopharm vaccine is old fashioned "inactivated virus" type - so safe. Already over 40,000 have had it - 100% success and no bad side effects. See the link below for latest UAE results.

Its already out there, just not being reported in the West as we are now into the 2nd "fear wave" ahead of US and EU vaccines coming out late November.



.

[davidblack] 27/10/2020 08:55

Pro first rate paranoia.

Not that agree with it but yes a big panic would help with the vaccinations and maybe give a sense that there is a normality beyond the present.

That sounds almost like planning, so probably can be discounted, as a political plans as we have discovered only go forward to the next news interview.

Itching to buy more when funds are available!

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 08:44

I think Covid has made people even more short-termish spawny and so, I will just keep on buying.

The current 2nd wave is a non-event. It is merely to frighten everyone into taking the vaccine when it comes out late November.

A Covid that is killing less than flu is not going to get people to have the vaccine. Therefore currently the "scare and fear" is being ramped up so that in around 4 weeks when a number of vaccines get authorised........people will rush to have it.

Everyone should be aware that a massive market boom is coming when the media moves on to vaccines and roll outs and the "recovery".

IMO the next few weeks will be the last "buy cheap" chances for oil and gas stocks......from December onwards its going to be all about the vaccine, the recovery and then the shortages from lack of investment as 2021 goes on.

I see the BBC is rolling out the old "immunity may not last" nonsense today. Educated people know that most people do not develop antibodies, they have a T-cell response which fights the virus. Only those who have a poor immune system get to the stage of making antibodies. But the Beeb runs a story about antibodies trying to mislead people into "you must get a vaccine and maybe 2 times a year".........utter tosh. Media manipulation for the uneducated.

[spawny100] 27/10/2020 08:39

Likewise pro! I've emailed Stacey for some clarification regarding comments in the VTM article yesterday.

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 08:27

Got another lump today, under 99p.

Some people cannot see the wood for the trees. Whatever you think, in 12 months time there will be a massive wall of cash coming in. There will be 21 big prospects to drill for more upside.

Whether Casca Deep or Royston come in or not....the share price in 12 months will be at least double, more like triple and possible quadruple of where it is today (no matter where it moves in the time between).

This is a screaming buy currently, and I am :)

[macangts] 27/10/2020 08:26

EOG break out their Trinidad production and prices for Natural Gas and LNG in their reports - I think it would be a reasonable assumption that prices are likely to be similarly aligned. I also note an historical piece that suggests the contracts were of a "take or pay" basis with a fixed price component and a component linked with Caribbean Methanol and Ammonia indexes.
EOG report here:
hxxps://s24.q4cdn.com/589393778/files/doc_financials/2020/q2/06-30-20-Earnings-Release-Schedules-to-IR_08-05-20-for-website_2.pdf (page 3 Wellhead Volumes and Prices)

[lazarus2010] 27/10/2020 08:08

It's clear to me when he said
“We believe we now have as many as 21 separate prospects and could be looking at 1TCF of gas by the time we are done"" he meant PER DAY :-))))

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 08:01

Has it, would not even know where it is......

[spawny100] 27/10/2020 07:57

Got a coastline.

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2020 07:56

Probably Slovenia.......... :)

[spawny100] 27/10/2020 07:55

Thanks Spangle. Not sure which Eurasian landlocked country you're referring to though? Czech Republic? Liechtenstein?

[spangle93] 27/10/2020 01:17

Spawny100 - ref "I think the 1TCF 'by the time we are done' probably refers to the initial campaign?"
That was how I read the 1Tcf comment.


Herman007 - ref 12526 - welcome to the ADVFN BB. I hope you get insights from it.

If you go back a few pages NGMS27 covered your first question, ref "how do we know if they are linked?". First, we have seismic, the interpretation of which gets modified and updated every time there's a new well drilled. That would give an indication that the sands could be juxtaposed, and the degree of structural offset (e.g. faulting) if any. Second, assuming (and this is a non-trivial because we have no offset wells for this target) that Casc Deep delivers, you'd look at its fluid composition, pressure gradient, and other measureable parameters. Next you could do interference testing, where pressure measured in one well is affected by testing in the other. Ultimately, if one or both fields are produced, you would get material balance evidence after maybe 2 years of production (effectively if you are producing more gas from a field than your model tells you that you should be, that additional gas must be coming from some place else).


Second question, ref Cascadura reserves. Again, without wishing to "pre-discover" Cascadura Deep, I think for now, at least until we are told otherwise, we should consider Casc Deep as if it were a separate field, independent of the Cascadura-1 well discovery.


Third, if you can find the october 2018 corporate presentation, when Royston was previously called Ortoire Central, the company indicated 960 bcf in place gas. From Mount Teide's reprise post 12530 above, other fields appear to be estimated to be capable of 70% recovery of in place volumes. AFAIAA there has been no change in company estimates, although our CPR, GLJ, took a very conservative approach in their independent report (Royston is not separately covered in their report).

I'm not sure how the "container" at Royston has been influenced if at all by the subsequent 3 C's discoveries. The structural picture is complex, fields are localised, and Royston is not covered by seismic to the same degree. I think they just consider that the chance of success is higher because their model is derisked, rather than making any substantive changes to the volume estimates.


Lastly, the first 4 targets (excluding Casc Deep) were selected not based on size but because they had previously been intersected by exploration wells, thus making them much more likely to be positive results. If you look at slide 12 of the most recent presentation, then even assuming there is some stylising going on, Royston looks to be areally the largest of the leads and prospects, though we don't know how vertically extensive these identified structures are. However, wtgr to TXP's model I think you'd have to consider these have a lower CoS at this stage, especially unproven lower structures like Cretaceous.

[spangle93] 27/10/2020 00:43

c0lin1 - 12527 - not a stupid question and entirely why it would take so long to negotiate.

I can't really answer you but I just wondered what spot price you had in mind? AFAIAA there is no gas produced locally that isn't under contract, and there are no regional blended gas indices like we have WTI, Arabian or Brent for oil. I'm surprised when posters in another company, operating in a landlocked Eurasian country, get excited about Henry Hub rising, as if it has any influence on the unit price received half way around the globe.

[herman007] 27/10/2020 00:12

I am no expert, but based on the initial reserve estimates of casadura and various «expert opinions», Royston could potentially deliver 2 tcf alone. In that case we would be at 3tcf by summer, with 20+ targets to drill.

[highly geared] 26/10/2020 23:14

If Chinook is a wider “ flatter” structure but yielded 500ft net pay v 770 feet at Cascadura, the ultimate mid case reserves will be 400-500 Bcf ( if testing proves commercially successful). That pushes toward 1TCF without Cascadura Deep ( if successful) or Royston ( if successful).

If all hit pay + with other follow up targets 2-3 TCF might be possible over the next 2 years...

[spawny100] 26/10/2020 23:06

"In our call, Baay confirmed that Touchstone plans to broaden its scope and approach many Ortoire targets that have never been drilled once its initial exploration campaign is complete.

“We believe we now have as many as 21 separate prospects and could be looking at 1TCF of gas by the time we are done""

I'm thinking there have been some crossed wires here. I think the 1TCF 'by the time we are done' probably refers to the initial campaign? Why on earth would he put such a conservative number on all the other prospects combined at this early stage of a multi year programme when they have never been drilled yet?

[herman007] 26/10/2020 22:24

I thought that 1TCF was confusing, as they for all practical purposes already are there with Casadura and Chinook. I was interpreting it to be annual production by the end of the 20+ exploration targets, but thats too optimistic.

[spawny100] 26/10/2020 21:45

Yeah agree MT that 1 tcf potential appeared fairly pessimistic to me on first read too given they've already found half of that at Casca 1. And then a hit twice as big as they were expecting at Chinook and a 'very exciting' possibility at Casca Deep. Perhaps he was talking solely about a tcf from Chinook and Casca combined and it was misinterpreted or misreported?