Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 26/10/2020 20:01

Some metric that flexes with the selling price of the final product produced by the end user would make sense.

[c0lin1] 26/10/2020 18:44

Apologies stupid question time.Im of the opinion we have just started a multi year commodities bull market.How do people think the deal will be structured with ngc with regards the price per unit. Will it be fixed for a term say 1, 2 or 3 years, will it be linked to the spot price or will it be linked to the cpi. TIA

[herman007] 26/10/2020 18:41

I am a relatively new (Norwegian) shareholder in TXP. I would like to get some input from those of you with a more technical understanding of the oil and gas industry. As we all know, Paul Baay has hinted on the possibility that Casadura deep and "Chinook deep" are connected (belong to the same gas reservoir ). When will we know if this is really the case? Obviously this would indicate very large gas reserves, but could anyone put this in perspective? Saying that its a "monster" only goes so far as to descrbe the potential. Since there are already reserve estimates on Casadura, how much could these be increased under such a scenario? Royston has always been the most promising prospect, but what kind of expecations do you think the company has in relation to volume compared to Chinook and Casadura? Last but not least: After Royston, we move into a new phase of exploration. Do you think these exploration targets have the same potential as Royston/Casadura and Chinook? Thanks in advance

[pro_s2009] 26/10/2020 18:14

Had another 10K today, tad under 101p...... :)

[gopbg] 26/10/2020 13:46

As Someone who has watched Nat Gas prices in comparison to oil on a BTU equivalent basis the market always discounts Nat Gas. I believe it is mostly because it is harder to store than a liquid. BUT when you find in a area that has the infra structure and where supply is materially below demand ......those that find the Nat gas win big !!!!!. IMO it becomes like clipping Bond coupons with an equity kicker....Exciting times for Touchtone thru Dec 2021

[gopbg] 26/10/2020 13:36

Interesting ......In 2011, the Henry Hub was the site of a land dispute, in which Sabine sued to condemn land near the site of their hub, and expropriate it from the Broussard family, who had owned it for generations, arguing that it was acting in the national interest.[12] The lawsuit was settled in 2012, and in 2013 a second, older, lawsuit was settled with Texaco (like Sabine, a Chevron company) for contamination of Broussard land which Texaco had leased for many decades.[13]

[buffythebuffoon] 26/10/2020 08:39

I wonder how many of us say the words Henry Hub without questioning where the apparently strange name comes from. I’d say the majority, perhaps the large majority (of which I was one until very recently).

The story as to why it’s not called the Ludwig Wilhelm Kattentidt hub is possibly worth a few minutes of your time.

Sorry guys, sometimes there is nothing to add about the wonderful journey we are all convinced we are on with TXP.

Well, nothing to add if you don’t have Spangle’s brain :^}

Buffy

[pro_s2009] 26/10/2020 08:15

HH prices just recovering to 2016 levels, but we must remember, gas is currently (thanks to US Shale pyramid scheme of recent years) priced over 2.5 times less than the equivalent oil price (eg gas is nearly two thirds too low priced currently).

As the US shale industry gets downsized massively over time (even more with Biden in power) - then gas really can go on a bull run up to 9$ in the decade ahead imo.

With the green focus on gas instead of oil as the "choice" replacement/standby/backup in the interim of the coming decades....the future of gas is very rosy.


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Long term HH prices below :


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[pro_s2009] 26/10/2020 07:45

One gets the feeling that the delay to the NGC contract is to allow prices to recover.....therefore allowing a higher agreed price without any eyebrows being raised.

Had an agreement been in place in June, at 3$........would be questionable. A price of 3$ in November, nobody would bat an eyelid perhaps.

[mount teide] 26/10/2020 00:08

Sp93 - thanks for the clarification ref.

[spangle93] 25/10/2020 23:07

Hi Junky - good thoughts as always

Walking down 6 flights of stairs is fine.. the issue is walking back up again ;-) Some of the single structure Norwegian production platforms are 10 storeys, and it's not fun when the lift is out of service.

I'm sure whichever rig they select will be fit for purpose for the proposed well, as they wouldn't wish to jeopardise either the well objectives or their HSE record.

As you asked, these are my thoughts from the very limited information we punters get about subsurface conditions. Any reader should take this as a view, or more likely, a guess ;-)

I appreciate you are doing much good scenario planning. But I think your thoughts are more suitable for the field development stage rather than exploration, and IMHO the philosophy here will be KISS. The primary objective is to assess the hydrocarbon commercial potential (if any) of Casc Deep, bearing in mind that no matter how pretty the pictures look, they still have scant data in a complex structural area, and every well to date has found something they haven't expected.

I think they will probably opt for an additional casing string, at least for this first well, but we haven't been told whether there is a common pressure gradient. It appears that the Herrera on Chinook remains in one section, in which case maybe the casing design may remain the same. It's the tubing that can't do 10000 boepd, not the casing. What we don't know is whether the limitation is diameter, pressure rating, wall thickness vs erosion at such gas rates, etc.. Sounds like they are prepared to accept lower rates than do a workover, so maybe there's something more fundamental.

Also, the dual completions you describe so well are probably less likely here than offshore, where well slots are limited and wells are expensive, or some onshore locations where wells take 140 days rather than 40 days. I think it's something that larger companies in a development phase might consider, but TXP right now will want to prove the concept and get production from one zone in this well. I believe (and again, AIMHO) that they will log the equivalent of the Cascadura sheet, then case off, secure it, and drill the Deep section. If the results are good, they will log the Deep, line it and test that, and produce from it. If there is nothing viable, they will plug back to the shoe and complete over the Cascadura sheet. But production will be from only one zone.

Ref your ideas of thin wall DP, again I understand your thinking. The Norwegian sector is one of the best serviced regions in the world, and would have that choice. Onshore Trinidad doesn't have the same recent history of drilling deep wells, so I believe they would be limited by what the local rig companies can offer. As I noted a couple of posts ago, wells to 10,500ft were drilling in the 1960s; these aren't extreme depths or pressures, just relatively challenging.

I'm sure you aren't the only poster here having nocturnal excitement(!), and for quite a few it will be because of thoughts about life changing potential [rather than new life starting potential ;-) ;-)

GLA

[junky monkey] 25/10/2020 18:44

So for the pipe in the well not being able to handle 10.000 boepd, I wonder if they will be able to increase the size of the various casings and tubings for Cascadura Deep? Would the rig be able to handle the extra load, my gut feeling is no, but as I have only been on North Sea offshore drill floors a couple times, and never on these tiny land rigs I don't know how much extra pull they have to offer, but it all looks very much smaller. The stuff in the North Sea I have seen was ridiculous. Walking down like 6 stories of stairs from the top and then standing next to a BOP on a floater was impressive to say the least.

Producing from two zones (or maybe more) would have to be done with isolation through production tubing and packers which takes some space. In theory one could co-mingle production from two zones, but can also think of several reasons one would not want to do this as well. I suppose the original well was not dimensioned for this idea because they did expect something a bit less than what was found. Even producing from one zone could be undermentioned if the final diameter in the reservoir is very small.

And so with Cascadura, producing from upper zone since bottom zone is already isolated and then using Cascadura deep to produce from the lower zone, or the deep zone if that is successful? Do you think they would run double production tubing and produce two zones from Cascadura Deep if they could set the required dimensions from the rig? Spangle?

What kind of down hole buoyancy factor is there on the drill and casing strings with the mud weight they are probably using? Do you think they are using thin wall DP to stretch the reach of the rig already?

I haven't been able to sleep very well the last nights. First it was the anxiety of Chinook, and now all these thoughts are going through my head of how to actually handle what this thing could potentially put out, and then if they are connected at the bottom with a thick sand sheet, it just turns into a crazy monster. A good monster, but one that's gonna require a lot of holes to drain.

Is there space in the existing pipeline for this? What happens if a bunch of other stuff hits? A new bigger pipeline going to somewhere?

I bet Paul and the rest of the team have a little trouble settling down to sleep as well with all the action this block is dishing out.

[spangle93] 25/10/2020 17:01

Mount Teide ref your comment
"Its the first time a well has been drilled (On Ortoire) that deep (to over 10,000ft)"

Slide 19 of the presentation shows that the Lizard Spring OL-4 well at what is now Royston was drilled close to 10,500ft.... using the technology available 55 years ago

[pro_s2009] 25/10/2020 13:50

DB...... as the old saying goes.......dry holes get drilled very quickly........so the longer it takes, the more confident we can all get :)

[dunderheed] 25/10/2020 11:18

David - nice anecdote re (Canadian) sellers during that period to offset the losses elsewhere however what the f regarding two "off" days for Xmas and NY regarding drilling operations - do they all stop to have a nice Xmas meal and NY meal?!

[spawny100] 25/10/2020 10:50

I suspect he must be fairly confident of getting something to us before Xmas; given overrun at Casca and Chinook I think he might perhaps be a bit more cautious with giving us another over optimistic timeline. But let's wait and see what date they get it spud.

[davidblack] 25/10/2020 10:43

Be kind Pro I might get a few pennies under the tree to buy a few more to add to my very modest collection.

[apad] 25/10/2020 10:00

I'm sure that eminently sensible Justin Pierre James Trudeau spends your taxes in ways that enhance his virtue, Davidblack.

Thanks for the info.

With any luck it'll coincide with PIs getting bored 😊

apad

[ballymoss18] 25/10/2020 09:43

Had to google Tim bits lol, enjoy

[davidblack] 25/10/2020 09:20

Agreed they may be a little quicker but that’s not PB’s usual track record.

But its also Companies worth avoiding good news between Christmas and New Year in Canada where there is a “Tax loss selling season” ahead of the 31st December tax close.

Each year high income tax people ditch their losers, so they can offset them against winners like Touchstone so as to book the tax gains and losses that year. With effective 55% taxes if you don’t get organised in places like Ontario and BC this issue is taken seriously. So while the losers are cleared out at the bottom winners like Touchstone are also sold to crystallise the gains. Often to buy back The winners in January but sometimes investors move on.

The upside for Brits is there may be some cheap stock available just ahead of any news release on the Cascadura Deep.

This happens every year and is nothing to do with Touchstone. But it’s always nice to get a small bargain in ahead of the New Year when the Canadian analysts and tipsters bring out their “Hot for 2021 lists” in the knowledge they are not going to get clobbered by tax related sales.

Enough Canadian folklore divulged I am off to Tim’s for coffee and a few Tim Bits!

[homebrewruss] 25/10/2020 08:43

David you're probably about right but they do have some experience of the geology at Cascadura now plus the current planned depth is a bit shorter than Chinook turned out to be so they may be able to improve on that.

[buffythebuffoon] 24/10/2020 16:24

Ah, non sealing faults.

Fair enough, that works. :^}

Buffy