Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[johntobin] 23/10/2020 09:21

PB has been clear in the past that he wasnt keen on borrowing for exploration as this usually seemed to mean a dry well! He is obviously rather superstitious on this.
But he was certainly hesitant re doing a raise. If Cascadura deep is a hit I think he may borrow more, certainly to build the million £ road to Royston, and to do more seismic? maybe £4million more. And as they move to 2 or 3 rigs, will borrow for development.
Hopefully will have cash for Royston, so he doesnt have to borrow or raise!

[hiddendepths] 23/10/2020 09:20

Hope they don't use PrimaryBid! Never good news for shareholders!

[dunderheed] 23/10/2020 09:06

Agree 100% it will be a quick placing IF required.
Simpler, cheaper and more importantly quick! (Said quick twice btw).

[ngms27] 23/10/2020 09:05

Agreed vindicates the current interpretation.However given the complexity I'd still suggest they won't get this right every time especially further away from Casc and Chinook

[davidblack] 23/10/2020 09:04

11 percent rights issues in Canada are very expensive and full of regularly “Joy” as the paperwork and rules is different across every Canadian province.

An institutional placing in London with the big Canadian brokers able to pass back their shares to Canadian institutions without the 120 day lock in that is required in Canada is most likely to be the approach.

Canadian institutions hate that 4 month lock in so TXP’s London listing is a great move for them otherwise they have to engage in a “Gypsy Swap” which is messy.

[pro_s2009] 23/10/2020 09:01

11_percent.

Paul was keen to stress he has another potential 35 million dollars available from the bank (15m of current 20m used and expansion to 50m is no issue). Saying that he was keen to stress.......very keen........he is in no rush to raise any money.

Ideal scenario for him would be success at Casca Deep, NGC deal signed and do a raise around 150p/175p a share.

A Rights Issue would be the way to go - to reward shareholders.

A third rig drilling in the west is development - can be debt funded.

Multiple development wells at Chinook and Casca is development - can be debt funded and using current rig.

The exploration side would see the bigger 2nd rig being taken to Royston in Q2, this is exploration spend and this big 2nd rig would then go about drilling the other prospects they have.

25m or 30m US$ cash raise via a rights issue sometime in Q1 perhaps ? That will keep the exploration side funded, while debt is used for development - until the wall of cash comes on stream later next year.

Something like that imo. I dont see a raise below 150p levels imo.

[davidblack] 23/10/2020 08:33

Further comment from which points out a further operational upside.

Comments curtesy of FB.

“Paul also mentioned that they hit the Stratigraphic horizons where they expected them to be. This means the geo model is calibrated and the chance of success for future drilling is increased.

Very important point.”

[11_percent] 23/10/2020 08:32

"but add 3 weeks for PB time".........lol, had to laugh.

Things do tend to move slower than PB initially thinks.....but they get there.....which is the main thing.

So.......not only is Chinook a gusher.....it opens up a whole new deep prospect.....which by good luck/judgement is about to be drllled in our next well.

Next cash raise should be a rights issue.

[hiddendepths] 23/10/2020 08:31

I think jonny has done a mighty fine job of educating himself about oil and does good work adding value on these boards!

[spangle93] 23/10/2020 08:29

Junky - good analogy - works for me.

The only thing I'd add is that the time required to see a response in one well from activities on the other depends on permeability. And that if you can drop the pressure sufficiently in a flow test, then shut in, you may see the shock pulse in the other well in a short time - you certainly wouldn't see depletion for months. But here we don't have the test kit capable of a big drawdown

So it would have to be the circumstantial parameters listed by ngms, plus of course the seismic framework, which will be increasingly constrained as more wells are drilled to these depths.

[homebrewruss] 23/10/2020 08:23

On reflection PB was pretty bullish for him last night. I get the sense they are really confident in Chinook and how it's derisked the rest of the block.

Hopefully he'll keep his feet on the ground and we won't get as far as a James Parsons 'golden ticket' moment like SOU!

[spawny100] 23/10/2020 08:15

Looks like someone paid 109 already this morning!

Thanks for thoughtful reply to my question junky monkey.

[soggy] 23/10/2020 08:06

I see my small buy is listed as a sell, l so I presume the first three sales reported in the trades are buys.

[soggy] 23/10/2020 08:03

Well, just felt I had to add a little today. Another wee five grand at the opening...

[davidblack] 23/10/2020 07:56

But a thoughtful one!

And the occasional cynic keeps optimists like me looking over our shoulders which is no bad thing. Just not too many at once.

It looked like some of the hot Canadian money left TXP after the presentation possibly based on the timescales you’re the next certain news with Cascadura Deep due at Christmas but add 3 weeks for PB time and the admin Coho delay. So the U.K. is likely to do the same today.

However I think PB is just about to start a serious promotion leading up to the Cascadura Deep well hitting the second production horizon with the Deep targets a “Cherry on Top” and then an institutional placing to fund multiple new wells at Cascadura and Chinook plus Royston and beyond.

We will see.

[glennborthwick] 23/10/2020 07:50

Certainly been an exciting ride so far. In at 16p. Sold 25 percent at 60p to get stake back and it continues to deliver.

[cashandcard] 23/10/2020 07:46

Davidblack,I hear ngms is a member of the chartered Institute of cynics ;)Cash

[soggy] 23/10/2020 07:42

Holders, not orders.d'oh!

[soggy] 23/10/2020 07:41

After last night, do you think we will see some more investors coming on board and/or existing orders strengthening their positions today?

[ngms27] 23/10/2020 07:29

Agreed, they will need a pressure gauge in a shut in well and be producing from another to measure any effect on the shut in well from production elsewhere.Pressure, temperature, hydrocarbon properties can be a good indication but not proof.

[junky monkey] 23/10/2020 01:34

Spawny - let's play a game. You have a straw, you put your finger on the end and suck the other end. Your finger feels the vacuum. This is a pressure gauge in one well and a well test on the other. Now let's make the straw (and your arm) really really really long. Do the same thing. You will initially feel less vacuum due to some friction and the massive increase in volume, but in time it would even out. Now imagine that we stuff the really really really long straw with cotton. The cotton is the porosity and premeability in the sandstone. It will take even longer for the pressure gradient to be registered by the vacuum (pressure) gauge (your finger) because the system will taken longer for the air to move towards the sucking (the well test releasing pressure). With the type of drawdowns and indications that were releated from the previous tests, I highly doubt that you could get an accurate reading with the horizontal spacing of these wells. There is an awful lot in the way, you would have to have a significant draw down over a long time (which you wouldn't want to do), or you would have to have some way to induce a pressure shock wave that could be registered on the other side, and even that seems pretty much impossible to me.

If you measured the ambient pressure of both wells in this layer to be equal, you could probably de-risk the idea quite a bit, but since this has been there for such a very long time, you have no way of knowing how much communication there is from one side to the other to get transverse flow of any significant volume over say some fault or other anomaly in the formation. Differential depths of these zones in the different wells might also create a pressure differential in the two wells that would confuse this this approach.

Having one well on production from this zone and the other well plugged above this zone with a wired or long life pressure gauge in the zone would give you an indication over a long period. Maybe a bit impractical ... ?

I don't see that a short simultaneous well test on two wells would give any useful data. Varying permeability over the zone could give you a differential pressure that could make the two zones look like they are not connected when they in fact are. If it was a short straw with no friction, you and your mate could take turns varying the sucking rate (flow rate) on either end of the straw and determine pretty quickly if you were connected or not.

So that was the physics I can think of in 2 minutes and maybe Spangle or others could come in with some well situations trying to actually test something like this in the real world.

It's much easier if you leave one side fixed with a pressure gauge and vary the pressure on the other side.

[hiddendepths] 22/10/2020 23:58

jonny an oil man! A serious one at that! David, what on earth have you been drinking?

[hiddendepths] 22/10/2020 23:56

bobobob was a friend until he started legal proceedings against me for my constantly pointing out lies being peddled by Max Petroleum and recommending VERY strongly that people should sell out as they were heading for the rocks. The proceedings seemed to quietly vanish about the time Max fell like a stone to next to nothing.

Still, we patched things up to some extent after that, I'm glad to say. Farewell bob, you were an extraordinary person who left a lasting impression on many who knew you!

[davidblack] 22/10/2020 23:23

NGMS posted this of yours in Canada, hopefully you don’t mind?

Last analysis from London

from NGMS-Johnny who is a "world class cynic" but also an ex serious oil man of some standing

"When I looked at the corporate presentation the other day my first thought was Casc Deep and the Lower sands at Chinook one and the same? Seems it was meant to suggest the possibility ;)

It’s going to be very interesting to find out."

And if you can intrigue a cynic then worth watching!


(Clearly worth repeating if you are prepared to comment!)