Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 26/12/2024 11:40

It's well worth reading GoRozen's quarterly commentary, particularly for its claim that production of US shale gas may have peaked:

"The great drama of American shale production may now be nearing its final act.
For years, we have anticipated that the relentless growth in shale output would crest
by late 2024 or early 2025, catching many off-guard. In hindsight, even this expec-
tation might have erred on the side of caution. Quietly and without much fanfare,
both shale oil and shale gas appear to have passed their zenith several months ago.
Recent data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reveal that shale crude oil
production reached its high-water mark in November 2023, only to slide 2%—
roughly 200,000 barrels per day—since then."

[spangle93] 24/12/2024 09:49

Well, no RNS this morning with TXP's offer for Exxon, not even one stating a need for more board members and a revised share scheme to motivate them. So it's a quiet morning over here.

Wishing all suffering LTH's (and those who haven't held so long but it just feels like it!) the compliments of the season. Hope yous all have a good holiday

[redartbmud] 20/12/2024 21:09

oops.

Didn't mean that.
Freudian slip,

Ha ha...
red

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 20/12/2024 17:58

To pay Paul Baay?

[redartbmud] 20/12/2024 12:40

Many years ago I caught a client out who was invoicing a customer for stage payments on a contract where the work had not been completed.
They had a cash flow problem and thought the way out was to rob Peter to pay Paul.

Went bust.
Happy days.

He ho.....

red

[kaos3] 20/12/2024 12:24

my balkan boys would drill Central dry well with a bosch drill. then they would start selling coho gas as Central block new gas. and claim less coho gas production on the decline rates and depletition and choke etc.

simples

and casca drilling similar.... clearly drilling else where until they get much better gas price.

do you remember what was said - txp gas production is despite being low in absolute - deciding marginal T&T production stability. the phone calls when they shut down casca production for 4 days

[kaos3] 20/12/2024 12:18

listening to PB (hic) I do see the Central block as a drilling opportunity atm

Shell did not drill it for a very loooong time
present wells optimisation
we get 2 -3 X more for the gas (even if geo is not as superb as at Casca - still better then Casca drill with 2,4 usd/mcf in economic terms)
it is a proven prospect
and in 2026 cretaceous

[sleepy] 20/12/2024 12:16

kaos3 re 38883 - good question!

[kaos3] 20/12/2024 12:07

red - brilliant lol

[redartbmud] 20/12/2024 12:05

I wish that I could remember an old quote from Parliament.
Best I have ever seen in print.

Part of a quick riposte in a slanging match with the then PM

Closing remark:
".........he governs with the courage of his own confusion."

red

[flyinghorse1] 20/12/2024 12:05

11%

I dont see Central as a drilling opportunity , more infrastructure/commercial (LNG) tie back surrounding acreage gas via plant.
Most of the acreage was relinquished around the producing 4 well hub. Carapal 1 is the main producer with Baraka wells in smaller reservoirs. All quite depleted since TROC came on.
There may be after geological analysis some targets but these would need assessed and risked vs the rest of the portfolio.

In a proper Capital value assurnce process they have a least quite a few opportunities to screen now for best risked return on $

FH

[11_percent] 20/12/2024 11:17

The Coho gas is part of the contract to sell ALL of the Ortoire block gas to NGC.

So, we sell Coh gas to NGC.....who then sell it to Shell.....who then, I assume, sell it into the market.

However......shortly, we become Shell......and can sell it into the market instead of Shell.

[kaos3] 20/12/2024 10:37

their plan anounced just 4 days before the central block news - knowing very well that central block is coming .... was not their plan for 2025 basically

hence my rants of me feeling like a patsy. who I am btw

why not do a proper scenario plan and publish the news in one coherent go? with much better explanation of the scenario effects in a presentation slide form.

[11_percent] 20/12/2024 09:48

If they can get Central over the line imho its a cracking deal on many fronts.

H2 drill Central instead of Cas

Get that $7 gas price flowing.

=====================

Indeed......sounds good......but that would be a change to guidance/plan announced only a few weeks ago.....again.

[kaos3] 20/12/2024 09:39

ok - me as a blue blood balkan bloke - first thing I think of is cheating

enter TXP

can they not cheat the current ortoire and coho gas buyer by selling some of the gas via the central block to the export market?

i do not need a moral answer

as all TXP producing assets could and will be eventually connected by pipelines.

how hard it is to control where is going what gas by the current gas buyer?

a few cheated units sold for the higher price could save txp skin if the cash is short

TIA

[john henry] 20/12/2024 09:13

Youve gotta laugh TXP are the largest operator in T&T and valued at £50M a micro cap

Imho potential Investors want to see the drilling program finally kick off

If they can get Central over the line imho its a cracking deal on many fronts.

H2 drill Central instead of Cas

Get that $7 gas price flowing.

[spangle93] 20/12/2024 09:12

Didn't you sign off for Xmas yesterday, Dunders? ;-)


Sleveen - no, we haven't had an explanation. What I believe is that every well result in the appraisal program threw up something unexpected (e.g. where did the aquifer conveniently come from in Chinook in the last few metres of the well), so even if we were given an explanation, it would be on the basis of it being a working thesis rather than "the answer".

However, I'm sure there will be a fascinating SPE paper written by our head of exploration in the coming years

[sleveen] 20/12/2024 09:10

Agreed, have we ever been given the full picture about what happened at Chinook and Royston?

[dunderheed] 20/12/2024 09:08

Under 38873. "great" minds mate, I must have been typing "shuddering to think about planning" just as you posted FFS.
When are the BoD going to "apologise" for that john et al??!! LOL.

[11_percent] 20/12/2024 08:57

The PLAN has not worked out very well for 2024.

Plan was to drill 2 wells on the C pad and 2 wells on the B pad......we only got the first 2.

Similar "PLAN" for 2025......with similar results.......+ a pile of debt.

[sleepy] 20/12/2024 00:20

I have stated what the company said in its RNS. I also posted “My speculation and it may well be wrong ………;.”. I don’t see that I owe or will owe anyone an apology