Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 09/12/2024 13:22

Dunders

This is exactly what I posted some time ago on this board.
Nothing has changed.

As long as PB can marginally generate sufficient revenue to pay the bills and refinance the debt periodically, that is all I can expect on the horizon.

Sad but fact so far.

red

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 13:06

Come on TGM 38580, there may well be changes to reserves but not based on your reasoning, IMHO lol.
I am sure you know it is the the way Gonzo has very poorly written the RNS that possibly leads to confusion referring constantly to average productions and not providing exit production profiles.
We don't know but the first two additional wells may not be budgeted to come onstream until 2qtr 2025 and the other two until 4qtr 2025 hence there isn't a true full years production to compare like for like, IMHO? Yes certainly disappointing production profiles , (but do not necessarily mean reserves will be written down, except of course to reflect production to sales) but written in an obtuse manner as well to create further uncertainty but hey ho what more can you expect, IMHO. DYOR.

[kaos3] 09/12/2024 12:58

in my gardeners words

shale gas production decline is cca 70 - 80% in the first 3 years, after the flush production after the stimulation - production goes down to cca 25 %

BUT

first 3 years production represents like only 30 % of the final quantity produced. the rest of 70 % of the quantity that can be produced is spread into further 10 - 15 years or even more.


so I wonder if there are any similarities to txp with the above. is stimulating sandstone even reasonable if there are cracks?
---------------------------------------------------

what i am aiming at ... we will need a lot of wells producing at 25 % of the initial production to get real stable non fast total declining production where the impact of the new wells will be felt. like 4 old wells vs 1 new to start with....

until then no free cash flow. if besides new drilling counting costs of infrastructure needed (bank debt repayment) and licence exploration must drilling (obligatory)

i will guess we need cca 10 casca wells to get some free cash flow.... but then (in my scenario) it will be very stable production ( if i am right).

10 casca wells will approximately fill the present gas factory.

translate this in time - end of 26 we can hope for some stability and residual cash (start of the cash wall) - or even later - because we can not neglect all the other licences.

PS - i am optimist about total basin quantities being there in the long term because there are HCs all around. they just do not flow freely. assuming by intuition that lineral decline rates are the sign of the final total basin quantity produced is so very wrong. but in the first instinct probably many make that mistake

[the_gold_mine] 09/12/2024 12:45

One can't help but wonder if a reserves downgrade will be forthcoming, given apparently new drilling only looks to just about keep production flat? Something smells very bad at TXP,

[john henry] 09/12/2024 11:21

£50M MKT CAP and Baay has aspirations of becoming a FTSE 250 company LOL

[spawny100] 09/12/2024 11:16

Yes dunder I did comment back when they bid for TRIN that to me it implies that Cascadura/Ortoire isn't planning out to be the cash cow that we were told and that it smacks a bit of desperation.

[11_percent] 09/12/2024 10:55

DECLINE RATES.

Looks like they are hiding something.
Come out and give us some data that gives us a clear picture of what is happening.

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 10:45

But do you not see the irony there, you were "spamming" with Level 2 SM before?!

Question for meeting tomorrow as cannot make it so would be grateful if someone could ask?
Which BoD member was responsible for the TRIN (debacle) and was the logic on this based upon the now released news regarding Casca production profiles "expectations" that they may errr. have had an inkling about "back" then? Thanks all. OaO.

[sirmark] 09/12/2024 10:20

You was asking me the same on the LSE thread the exact same post...therefore spamming.. you only need to post a question me in one place mate and i'll respond :)

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 10:07

Not spamming the boards here but some really good posts over on LSE (for once!).
Best of luck all.

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 09:24

37567 SM why do you accuse me of spamming the boards, you used to "spam the boards" with the so useful Level 2 detail, so I was just interested in that now and asked on LSE az well?
Level 2 is so useful when buying strategically, ahem I'll get me coat.

[sirmark] 09/12/2024 08:51

No need to spam me on all the boards fella... Level 2 currently 3v2

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 08:36

SirMark can we have Level 2 pleaae?
A week or so ago we were a "smidge below 31p"?
We never actually broke 31p but I was wondering what the Level 2 was telling you now?
Confused from Cheltenham.

[che7win] 09/12/2024 08:36

Badly written, it's a master class in how to write an appalling update to shareholders.Year end debt will come down by year end 2025. Its forecast to be 30m, and 2024 forecast for year end debt is 32m.So they should have said debt will reduce by 2m at year end.Production stated as average, which is over the year, so this doesn't indicate year end production. It will be weighted again, as two wells come on 2025 Q3, so it's written to make things look as bad as possible.November figures stated, but no indication on when the Cas 3 well came online,so meaningless without that.It's a pathetically written RNS, and they are definitely in the under promise mode now.They can't even publish the figures accurately. The Nov production is the very last figure in the update, the one further up is not accurate.

[redartbmud] 09/12/2024 08:27

Oh dear.
Another short-term loan, if they can find a lender??
Numbers flat, at a time when oil prices are depressed and unlikely to move significantly higher in the short to meduim term. A price hike would be very welcome just now.
Immediate future isn't what I was expecting.
Running flat out to stand still.

red

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 08:17

Can someone change the name of my channel in TXP Discord to "Dunders was always right" please?!

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 08:04

38560, exactly too late now as I have been saying all along, lol.
I haven't had access to Discord lately as temporarily disposed elsewhere but I hope my "channel" is still there, as hope to be "back" in a few days!!

[john henry] 09/12/2024 08:04

In all honesty uninspiring 2025 outlook

[kaos3] 09/12/2024 08:00

there are clearly governance issues - the majot txp problem

only an activist shareholder - a gentle one - could change that

why gentle - because everybody is ok with the situation - including T&T stakehoders - and it is impossible to make a swift turn into the rooted ways

[kaos3] 09/12/2024 07:56

thank you all

i was not sure about it all and that is why i wrote in such a way - to be corrected