Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 18/12/2024 12:16

Dunders

Spot on as ever.

che7
Have you ever operated in a company that has had a so called 'brilliant strategy' going forward, but runs out of cash before it starts to bear results?

You can see the buffers, you can see the speed of the train, you can see the train wreck happening, but you can do nothing about it.

Mr Market is ruthless when there is the slightest sniff of problems.
Regrettably the BIG problem in Txp is Gonzo.

red

[che7win] 18/12/2024 11:53

Sleepy, Yes, my forecast is off on the 100p target - I gave too much credence to the market recognising progress.I also at that time didn't understand the geology and well performance. No one did, not even management. However, I have few doubts this is a developing story, 100p target is something I am more sure of at this point - the news and insights from Tuesday onwards last week has boosted my confidence on this.Monday RNS was very poor, nearly inexcusable - my view is that this was meant to be married up to Friday news.You mention timing - if there was one thing that failed timing wise, it was those two RNSs, which should have been one RNS.Also, Monday RNS should have been on Tuesday, a one day gap was unacceptable.On Tuesday, I posted immediately on LNG being a game changer, and I didn't know about Fridays news. Friday news was a turbocharger on this.Market paid lip service to Tuesday insights, Friday there was a timid recognition, reversed Monday by ignorance and double mindedness by some.I think there is a lot more to come, I'm kind of chuckling as some sell out here, oh boy, I'm buying as many as I can.I don't care so much about share price, only that we aren't bought out cheap. If we can stay independent with a bit of space, the share price will take care of itself.

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 11:38

38817, is it really chiggers though, I know an incredibly sore point with the "genius strategy" club but maybe, just maybe, the valuation is correct at this point in time, taking into account the "management" performance to date.
Just looking back recently on this complimacated strategy re TRIN, (which I supported but NOT the timing) why did they miss the "genius" idea of including a divorce settlement?! There may well have been good reason for this and, in which case perhaps it would have been good "strategy", to explain to the market about this or, is thst all part of the incredibly complimacated "situation" in T&T that such information cannot be divulged.
Dun, dun duuuunnn. (Errie music playing in background!)

IMHO, DYOR.

[che7win] 18/12/2024 11:27

There needs to be a lot more publicising, there is a big disconnect between what the company strategy is and what market perception is.This is a big failing, they need to be a lot more active.

[sleepy] 18/12/2024 11:25

che7win - you may well be right. Just as your part of your post from last May on a TRIN board may well be right

che7win2 May '24 - 09:29 - 3711 of 3996
0 2 0
As a new shareholder, I would not want cash.
TXP is throwing off 32m dollars cash and substantial upside.

TXP share price should hit 100p at least in next 12 months.

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 11:03

Chiggers in my youth I was a chess champion locally actually, lol.
Then everything started to go wrong.

However I don't care about these ridiculous "strategy" theories.
The only important thing is the share price. If these "genius" strategies impact that, as they obviously have been, with constant share price erosion "listen" to the market and CHANGE.
It doesn't matter that this may all come together at some point in the future because what investors want is consistency of share price.
In my own career, I was often surprised at how the c suites of relatively large o&gs constantly were aware of the short-term share prices and were continuously looking to maintain market differential with their competitors and market review of their share prices.
Here, there seems to be a concept of simply "trust me" by Gonzo when all evidence to date, on professional bench marking and performance, seems to be mediocre at absolute best hence share price weakness.
You're beginning to sound like the £7.50 a share forecaster, who also talked of all these complimacated ongoing conspiracies.
The business onshore T&T is much simpler than that, there is hardly any other competition for these "assets" lol!!
All IMHO DYOR.

[che7win] 18/12/2024 10:31

The 65p takeover approach rumour.....but what if it was true?I would be rejecting any bid below 100p....it made me angry last night to think 65p approach would get traction.The current price doesn't even cover Central Block.

[che7win] 18/12/2024 10:28

Sleepy, You think very poorly then. You're not on the right track, in fact, you can't even see the track.

[che7win] 18/12/2024 10:26

Ok, I like Chess and strategy games in general.The reason I asked is because I see clever strategy at play in TXP which I've highlighted in various places over the past week.You need to dig deeper into that strategy that TXP are playing....I think they are playing a strong hand.RIO was a key, Central is another key, LNG another key.....even TRIN was a key....they are playing VERY well.The Herrera fairway all coming together and the leverage.....You need to use your Chess skills to work through the overall progress being made.....I think you're underestimating the strategy at play.

[kaos3] 18/12/2024 10:19

my kid is in the same school class as the last weeks world chess champ up to 16y

point is - out of the chess (spreadsheet) environment he is hardly average.

lots of time he is their Gonzo

[redartbmud] 18/12/2024 10:12

che7

In my youth.

In business, I have been employed in a few companies that have taken new products to market - with varying degrees of success.
I have also modelled many more than that.

red

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 10:04

38807, I hadn't heard about it at all and normal rules apply but, I'd probably be in that group now.
Just simply, it is one banana skin after another, "here" now and as I say very probably why no real II ownership onboard and I'm happy to take a "smaller" loss anyway but would fully understand many who wouldn't, IMHO.

[zho] 18/12/2024 09:59

I did, despite my scepticism :-)

[sleveen] 18/12/2024 09:55

Indeed, but how many hoped it was true?

[zho] 18/12/2024 09:53

>>Apparently there was a fake "takeover letter" on Tic Toc which many believed was genuine.>>

The letter is littered with grammatical errors - something of a giveaway.

[sleepy] 18/12/2024 09:47

Spangle - am concerned that debt of 60 million odd is not a realistic option particularly given their recent cash flow forecasting record. Think they had intended a placing last week but that things did not go according to plan. Is there any reason to think that a placing would be limited to issuing 25% of their equity? (I seem to remember a 25% limit being relevant in the Trinity bid)

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 09:34

In all honesty though, I had similar concerns when the DISCORD group was first set up nearly 2.5-3 years ago, there were a few "signs", (doesn't time fly by?) and felt some form of changes were required back then. I mistakenly thought it was set up to be a SHAG and was perceived as an "agitator" way way back then, lol.
I wonder how many, look back on that time and reflect perhaps they should have taken onboard "nasty,vindictive type" comments where I obviously "didnt" like Gonzo. LOL.
FFS, I don't know the chap and in all honesty he comes across as quite a nice personable bloke, but this is bloody business not about how nice someone is, LOL!!

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 09:23

38800 and 38801, again completely concur 100%.

[che7win] 18/12/2024 09:23

Red, Have you ever played Chess?

[redartbmud] 18/12/2024 09:19

One of Gonzo's throwaway lines went something like:

'We have borrowed $10m, but we had previously paid back $6m so that is only $4m of borrowing'.
NO IT ISN'T - it is $10m of borrowing!!!!

Looking back, can we honestly say that he has achived a mature project in the last couple of years?
I understand that oil & gas wells are a continuous maintanane and developmemt asset from Day 1 until they run out and shut down.
But they get to a point where production is optimised and costs minimised.

Here we appear to have a proliferation of projects that are likely to be addressed on an erratic scattergun pathway. A bit like a child who has a different favourite toy each week.

red

[11_percent] 18/12/2024 09:16

We are presented with a raft of significnt variables that can be interpreted in a wide range of revenue and profit predictions.

===============

Red,
Spot on.

He presents to IIs....but can not give them an operations plan that will deliver the predictable revenue and profit.

The "wall of cash" from a few years ago was such a simple....although wrong......message.

It was such a good story.

[sleveen] 18/12/2024 08:49

Apparently there was a fake "takeover letter" on Tic Toc which many believed was genuine.

Yet these very same investors will not hear of a placing to partially fund (20%?) the central block purchase.

FFS.

[dunderheed] 18/12/2024 08:42

Red 100% and again similar to TRIN "ACQ" timing has to be brought into question here?
They have struggled to bring on line Casca efficiently and anywhere near their guidances in every aspect, so what do they do, look for further areas to cause them further confusion and potential for obfuscation??! LOL, IMHO and DYOR.

[redartbmud] 18/12/2024 08:33

To translate my tongue in cheek post:

Gonzo has yet again destabilised the business with his recent performance onscreen. Not sure that he was helped by his little helpers.
We are presented with a raft of significnt variables that can be interpreted in a wide range of revenue and profit predictions.
Until the picture becomes clearer, nothing will change.

red

[sirmark] 18/12/2024 08:28

The bridges is now complete (as of last Friday) so mobilisation will now take place ready for spudding in the next two weeks