Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 10/12/2024 11:41

Cas3 flowing c. 500 bbls/d. Confirmed at this mornings analyst meeting

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 11:31

i asked several questions

1. financial risks - margin of safety going into further debt considering possible marketing and geological risks
2. asked for a technical presentation regarding basin management and development regarding casca
3. what % of the total casca well life quantity will be produced in the first 3 years
4. what well optimization and stimulation tech is being considered
5. BOD composition reflecting the market size of the company
6. Why was the Casca gas factory upgraded to its full capacity when the planned quantities for the next year do not require it

etc

[dunderheed] 10/12/2024 11:04

K3 great thanks very much, really looking forward to hearing your views on this!!

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 10:52

ok - i registered to todays engage

4 presenters - not just PB. Shipka, Howell and Budau too

i got what i wished for

[dunderheed] 10/12/2024 10:09

Absolutely but dont refer to it as world class then, which from my perspective appeared to differentiate from other T&T assets, if it isn't going to produce world class returns?
If you go back and look at some of the informal guidances offered over the years, for various assets and see how they concluded, then had there been more "investor" push back or reference back to these informal guidances then, maybe we wouldn't be in such a mess as now?
Just very disappointing and as ever another "investment" learning, IMHO.
Let's hope we can salvage something from these ongoing presentations and Q&A's over this week?

[farrugia] 10/12/2024 10:00

could it simply be that the geology at trinity and tobago is just not right? This company keeps disappointing while TRIN experienced a bit of the same?

[dunderheed] 10/12/2024 09:21

Looking back at my posts some people were saying we needed BoD changes nearly three years ago now. Not trying to be clever but an observation as to how fast time flies and how long this slow car crash has been going on for. What an absolute shame and still they haven't "agreed" on new board composition (even then what do they really have to work with?), c'est la vie.
As ever all IMHO and best of luck all.

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 07:30

until only mr PB is allowed to appear in public, there is something wrong.

surpressing infos, incompetent team members etc.

other companies allow other team members to present

I am really interested in the local view of the board members!!!!!

VIEW

[dunderheed] 10/12/2024 02:51

Why should anyone believe a thing this team forecast now? Genuine question? What a complete Gonzo created mess!
IMHO, DYOR.

[che7win] 09/12/2024 23:05

Capital expenditure has been higher, which is allowing us to expand production levels.You would expect that operational cashflow will all go into capex in the growth phase.Should be more details given tomorrow with detailed slides.

[sleepy] 09/12/2024 21:44

Thanks che7win - how has operating cashflow compared to capital expenditure in recent years?

[che7win] 09/12/2024 20:25

Sleepy, Yes, that is correct, we have to drill and spend to keep increasing operating cashflow, the same as any company.Cannacord as far as I can see are not modelling any expenditure in 2026 beyond legacy oil wells until they hear details, so as would concentrate on the next year only as being accurate.The key though is the operating cashflow getting to a level where it is well above expenditure and excess cash can be used to reward shareholders. That is not well understood

[sleepy] 09/12/2024 19:46

Thanks Che7win but is that the right way to look at it? My understanding - which may not be correct - is that Cannacord have assumed that the Free Cash Flow in 26 is dependent on the capital spend in 25 and that it would be substantially less without that capital spend

[che7win] 09/12/2024 18:55

Sleepy, Your cash flow figures will depend on expenditure to expand.It's better to look at the operating cashflow which is 17.5m cash flow moving up to 22.5 next year.

[sleepy] 09/12/2024 17:08

Don’t claim much knowledge or expertise on TXP but I think the Cannacord report expects Free Cash Flow of 2m in 25, 18m in 26 and 5m in 27 - a total of 25m before turning negative in 28. Expected net debt at end 24 is expected to be 32.5m. Anyone like to suggest the banks view on increased borrowing?

[bri15] 09/12/2024 15:36

Plenty buying at this level.

[sleveen] 09/12/2024 14:36

Much of the 2024 capex was spent on infrastructure rather than drilling.

2 wells deferred into 2025 due to infrastructure delays.

Maybe a bonus well if all goes to plan with the first four.

[11_percent] 09/12/2024 14:05

Drill to fill.......so, what did we do last year.....2 wells.

[redartbmud] 09/12/2024 13:51

Dunders

It was a few months ago.
And as I said, the prognosis was a continued programme of drilling and extraction generating sufficient Oil and gas to keep the operation afloat and little more.
(I was pulled up for not mentioning gas in the piece).

It very much appears that they have been unable to find a breakthrough well that will generate meaningful and sustained cash inflows that stabilises the business and provides self-sufficiency to develop a drilling programme that results in meaningful profit streams.
No point in paying down loans just to take out another one. The bank may be happy to do that, at a good margin for them. The interest cost is dead money, and at some point it is possible that they hit a bad patch and cannot afford the repayments and disappear down one of the holes that they have drilled. Eventually they might not meet the loan criteria for the bank to advance the funds.

That may be the doomsday scenario, but this phoney game is now getting tiresome old hat.

red

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 13:36

TGM don't disagree mate but don't think the RNS particularly illustrated that this morning, which was what i thought you were saying? Just my opinion matey.
Edit, Re Royston, I'm taking the credit for first questioning that one as well matey!!?

[dunderheed] 09/12/2024 13:34

Red sorry must have missed that, which is a shame as I like your posts when I see them! Look. the exit rate will be significantly higher (hopefully!) at YE 2025 which should start to produce better FCF moving forward but absolutely would have preferred a different management team in place to get us this far, as feel we could be much much further up the curve already and have not wasted so much money along the way but, hey ho, what more can one say?
I see my post was down ticked as well, lol, probably by one of the "much respected and ticked up" £5-£10 share price club, who along with the other back slappers, used to criticise any previous "misgivings" post, as not having a clue, lol! How times change. As ever all IMHO dyor and best of luck to all.

[the_gold_mine] 09/12/2024 13:31

Dunders, I seem to recall Royston was touted as a major oil field discovery, which flowed oil during testing, then was later subject to a reserves downgrade as it was found it didnt't deliver as expected... why exactly can't that happen with Cascadura as well, please explain ?

[kaos3] 09/12/2024 13:29

red - yes - for the next 3 years imho... but not as bad as it looks overall

if casca reserves will not be written down , it is more of a postponement, not a disaster