Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 12/12/2024 17:13

TRIN - zero growth in 10 years.TXP - 400% growth, tripled in last year.Management are ok, they have made mistakes but learning.They need some credit for tying up RiO and other key licences, the infrastructure is in place, the licences and opportunities are there.The negative has always been timelines and over promising.This weeks update, they are clearly in under promising mode.

[sirmark] 12/12/2024 15:50

Just bought more, can see this bouncing quite strongly, a great entry price 5 year lows and now the largest on shore producer... not a bad place to be. All the infrastructure is in place and ready to, and all this for £50m... it's not going to be long until someone snaps this up (hopefully not) even 60p would be a devastating deal.

[sleepy] 12/12/2024 14:14

As a newbie to the sector would anyone like to give me a view as to how good TXPs CEO and Board are relative to Trinitys (now all, I presume, fired)

[dunderheed] 12/12/2024 14:12

Lol sleepy. The market obviously agrees with you!

[sleepy] 12/12/2024 13:56

How credible are TXP?

From a post on the TRIN board in May

01 May 2024 - 07:29:13 - 7437 of 8239 Trinity: OIL PRODUCER 2020 - TRIN
Skyship,
As a TXP shareholder, I can honestly say I think TRIN shareholders are getting a steal.
Because of one thing - Ortoire and specifically Cascadura.
TXP production is forecast to reach 14500 boepd by end of this year, you guys will be joining the ride at the best time in 3 years

[sleepy] 12/12/2024 13:53

Why isn’t the presentation on their website?

[eggchaser] 12/12/2024 13:50

Great post Che7...Re this 5. They said that there is no way that the asset base is reflected in the share price.What id like to know is what they are doing about this now.... Not months down the line!

[sleveen] 11/12/2024 18:53

Engage investor/Malcy events added to header.

[che7win] 11/12/2024 17:23

Yesterday CMD presentation herehtTps://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__engageinvestor.news_TXP-5FCMDReplay&d=DwIGaQ&c=euGZstcaTDllvimEN8b7jXrwqOf-v5A_CdpgnVfiiMM&r=FRttoDkMjz4oHwJxe_WGe4qY1O3iFSmjthS11woIWTVb7w4QQfZy1LxB0_ZqWz_r&m=3tycrvtH3RGTsidHuELDkk_Gakrw1bvWalK8KCLYR7ACKzTVwLynu9PwH0fLIwhV&s=jmPJaOWM0f3aEdcbLoOluBZveLuFgyCKJdpH02b6eG8&e=2.718

[che7win] 11/12/2024 13:36

Some notes from presentation, only snippets:
1. They started off by saying their 5 year vision is to get to 20k boepd/d.
2. They mentioned that they are at a £55 million market cap and that they are currently producing 6294 barrels of oil equivalent per day. They also said that their capacity is 48,783 and that they now need to convert the capacity to cash.
3. They said that they had tied up the entire Herrera fairway.
4. They said that they have comfort in the production profiles.
5. They said that there is no way that the asset base is reflected in the share price.
6. They said that their five year vision is to produce 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
7. They mentioned their strong competitor position as an example one of the blocks of a competitor - the competitor couldn’t negotiate the terms of the loan and the authorities came to touchdown asking them to participate in the license.
8. Their inference is that they’re one of the big players in Trinidad and are naturally included in participating in oil and gas ventures.
9. They mentioned that they were disappointed in only drilling four wells in 2024 and that the program going forward is more drilling.
10. They also mentioned that their takeover approach of TRIN was disappointing to have not succeeded. But by walking away should show the market that they will only participate in something if it makes financial sense.
11. They mentioned that their production curves are analogous to the turbidite curves with declines for 55% in 12 months and then flattening for Cascadura from September 23. That line is 66% and flattening. They also mentioned that this is a multi sheet development.
12. They mentioned that the latest wells are still in the test stage and that they’re shutting in production then changing parameters then running production again then shutting in and so on.
13. they mentioned the very attractive returns with most wells paying out in less than one year with the return of 490%.
Cascadura 6 and seven will take seven months payback.
14. James Shipka EVP asset development and HSE. He has fantastic knowledge of the Sub surface. He presented a geology report that Gavin Elsley and Danville Beltran had given the week before at a Geology Conference.
He was apologising for the technical detail but in all honesty this was the highlight of the presentation for me and he showed his expertise as he navigated through the geology. He first of all talked about the central block which was discovered in 2000 and BG bought he handed over to Colleen who went through analogies And inferences of how the BG wells performed. The data here is private.
He talked about the big hills and anticlines that we are updip of the Venezuelan Basin.
15. He discussed the Rio license and that we could never speak about Rio until we had the license. Now that we have the license, the company can say that cascadura extends into Rio and the trends continue across the block.
They have Ortoire, Rio, Charuma, Cicero and they have 2D and 3-D seismic data for all of these. They know their territory intimately.
16. Cascadura is the first on shore gas discovery with 3-D data and they are using Schlumberger as a partner on this.
The Penal-Barrackpore field is similar to Cas and gives them confidence.
17. Cas 1 to fault B is only 1P booked reserves, between B & C is 2P/3P.
Reserves will not be increased with Cas three discovery. Cas three there is 700 barrels of oil per day before moving to the upper sheet.
18. They are modelling the new fields Cas five will be 15 million per day one of the best locations remodelling on data but hoping to have much better
19. Cas 6 can I be drilled from cas B or C pads.
20. RIO - the structure is significantly higher up it’s 1000 feet higher that’s Cas 1 & Deep. Bodes well being updip.
21. Cretaceous - very exciting it would be a three or four drill program, not next year.
22. Their focus is to convert to cash flow net earnings are positive.
23. There is no more than one buyer of gas on the island. This is a real change. It’s significant Shell and BP along with NGC can buy gas.
Rio, Cipero etc all uncontracted. Coho ties into Shell.

This change came out of nowhere on the 1st of October

See last paragraph here I’m particularly excited by the gas export LNG update:



Two points:
#1. Negotiate gas to Shell into LNG, instead of 2.30 mmsc/f it’s 7.50 misc/f for gas
#2 : Renegotiate NGC gas take off agreement and direct to LNG.

See this article for EOG renegotiating a few years ago:


it sounded like they are already talking on renegotiations with the relevant parties.
24. Q&A
A) $10m debt funding hundred percent of returns on the capital so makes sense to drill. They want to drill in January to March which is the dry season the best time to drill on the island. It won’t be over Christmas.
B) term sheet did a review the price would likely be C as we currently have 7 to 7 1/2% level.
C) question on share placement. A cat that couldn’t say couldn’t say no but they said just look at our guidance were matching up cash flow with drilling. It well pay out is fast the first two wells paid out in less than a year.
D) gas to LNG changes everything. One rig costs 4 to 5,000,000 per well. If they were to renegotiate the gas deal then $40-$50 million would give them a continuous drilling program. Taking into account $71 for a barrel of oil and 15 to 16% discount and the gas price of 235, a negotiated gas deal allows continuous drilling.
E) gas renegotiation price. They’re in the middle of gas negotiation with the new licenses. The fixed price for gas they have to now is okay. But they want to change this. They want a price that is fair - that gets a world recognised price for gas.
Know that there are new players on the island they can assure us that they are going to get the maximum prices on the new blocks .
On the old license they are in year three every five years they can negotiate, but it makes sense that if they have higher gas prices, then they can drill more wells.
They want more money so that they can drill more wells and this is a win-win for everyone .
F) Any partner interests? No, but they are not seeking a partner but the gas end is under discussion(sic).
G) the model they have is the wells come off harder but the model shows that they do flatten out. What they wanted today was to do a reset to show the gas wells are still great. They make no apologies for that. The wells are still fantastic.
H) Cas 3 oil well - like Penal where 100m barrels oil produced. Better than Balata to the East. A billion barrels in place in Penal with 1930s tech has recovered 100m barrels.
Cas 3 has exciting oil rates.
I) Cas 3 - why oil? The structure moves up into the real block which is also gas as it moves up structure. It could either be oil or gas- Cas 3 is liquids.
J) bridge cost? Infamous bridge it cost 1 1/2 million dollars but it was a fixed price contract and a lot of the delays were waiting on Weather. There were actually two bridges. One was a diversion bridge. There’s one diversion part four when the river is raging with water, the river is either raging with water or dry. The branches needed to bring oil and condensate out and to facilitate RIG moves. It’s more or less complete, but not holding anything up.
K) they are going to drill as cash flow comes in they have 140m capacity, they want to get to 100. Cas will have 4 wells in the middle of the block. 10 wells total, wells on B & 4 C.
L) guidance. Based on what Coleen said, wells have 7 months payback. They will use new term debt to bring forward 7000 barrels of oil equivalent per day 22 million funds flow 29% increase.
M) 51% opening choke. Cas 3 just been switched from the plant to separate containers the reason was it was flooding the facility so it had to be moved to tanks.
N) Cretaceous do a JV? Challenge here is the drill through the upper areas but we’re not doing this in 2025. We don’t want to give away discoveries in those upper areas.
o) TRIN how would it have changed cashflow? Add 10 to 12m, but 25% dilution.
Cas 2 & 3 since are producing nicely. ST1 & 2 doing well.
P) Declines not just Cas deep, but Cas 2 & 3, but now they have bottom recorders to give better data. They will now drill the next well into Cas deep, bottom part of reservoir and allow to drain. They are using data which gives good estimates.

[11_percent] 11/12/2024 10:41

North Sea is now totally uninvestable........its dead.

[spawny100] 11/12/2024 09:53

Well quite. But who would have predicted the sheer suicidal lunacy of the UK government in destroying the North Sea a few years ago?

[che7win] 11/12/2024 09:51

Spawny, Quite simple really, look at the political view of the ruling parties and opposition.UK is one of highest political risk, they have destroyed North Sea and introduced retrospective taxes which rules them out for my inevestment in O&G there.Trinidad and Tobago are pro Oil & Gas, and that goes across all parties so low political risk.Columbia is medium political risk, President Gustavo Petro's decision to end new oil and gas exploration raises concerns over the country's future energy.

[spawny100] 11/12/2024 09:30

How do you quantify political risk? A few years ago who would have regarded the UK as a politically risky country for O&G investment?

[che7win] 11/12/2024 09:29

You should include the political risk in your comparison (I own both).

[ashkv] 11/12/2024 08:21

Was undertaking a brief comparison - net cash (25% of AXL share price at 21p), high growth, highish decline with new wells (similar to TXP) highly profitable super growth firm Arrow Exploration (AXL) is trading below EV/Flowing Barrel as compared to TXP at TXP 52week lows yesterday. And this when AXL is a 100% oil producing firm!!!

Even Jadestone Energy currently trading below EV/Flowing Barrel of TXP when it produces 70% oil and 30% higher priced gas!!!

And so on....

Disjointed markets - superb relative value opportunity....

Where would I rather have my funds if allocating to the AIM E&P sector?

[che7win] 11/12/2024 08:04

I'm particularly excited by the gas export LNG update, see last paragraph:hTtps://newsday.co.tt/2024/11/27/young-trinidad-and-tobago-earns-us2310m-from-tax-on-lng-exports-2020-2023/Trinidad need more gas - we will have higher prices going forwards as a way to fairly reward and incentivise accelerated production. That is unquestionable for RIO and other new licences, but Cascadura also would make sense.

[john henry] 11/12/2024 06:57

Excellent presentation.

The Land is secured, the Asset is there, drill to fill.

Its simply down to Management delivering i believe finally they will deliver.

Massive potential bonus with the LNG off take

[sleepy] 10/12/2024 23:30

Thanks King

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 22:44

Not usually released until a day or two after the event..

[sleepy] 10/12/2024 21:41

Has anyone a link to the slides or a recording please?

[ashkv] 10/12/2024 16:16

It doesn't matter if along the way equity holders get diluted to oblivion... or worse!!!

And this "fresh start" has been a recurring chimera for PB!!!