Totally Share Discussion Threads

[grahamwales] 21/7/2018 18:55

Looking to increase Vocare margin by 6% for 2018/19 year. Looks like there could be some major cost savings to come. Possibly intergration with the other businesses.

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2018 18:22

"And the reason I bought 4 times was that I thought the risk-reward was reasonable at the price I bought. "

exactly... same reason I buy/sell...same reasons used on rthm, pace and here.. the 3 shares we have both held in the past...

[spacedust] 21/7/2018 18:12

ADT was 12p during the financial crisis. Now 400p paying a dividend of 13p. And the dividend is increasing on an annual basis.

[1gw] 21/7/2018 18:11

What's dire about the cash position? The cash position is great. It's the combination of negative current net assets and negative operating cashflow that is a bit of a concern.

And the reason I bought 4 times was that I thought the risk-reward was reasonable at the price I bought. I think my latter purchases were made in the expectation of a share buyback which I thought would have happened soon after the authorisation was received, so I have been wrong on that. But I still think the risk-reward is reasonable as a high-risk "knife-edge" play: big rewards if it comes off but clearly (IMO) it could go wrong.

Very similar view I think to deltrotter 3 months ago, before (s)he bought in. del says "binary", I say "knife-edge" but it's a similar concept.

It would be interesting to hear del's views on what changed his/her mind on it "heading the wrong way".

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deltrotter 16 Apr '18 - 15:57 - 2512 of 4110 0 1 0
Agreed Brummy. Vocare operates on economies of scale. If they clean up - they make a fortune here. If not, it is one helluva drag that I am not sure the company can overcome (and really shouldn't even try).

A binary play IMO - go bust or make multiples of the current price... At the moment it seems to be heading the wrong way and that worries me...

I'll hang fire with any purchase until this bottoms.

[spacedust] 21/7/2018 18:11

This company probably will be paying out dividends if they are a success. Imagine having 250k of these and getting dividends of 20p per share in years to come would be a decent annual income.

[1gw] 21/7/2018 18:02

What are you saying stt, that you find the brokers' reports confidence-boosting?

I saw the comments in the brokers reports and would find them somewhat irresponsible as objective research notes. But of course they are not objective research notes are they? The Capital Access Group one certainly says that it is a marketing communication aimed at professional investors and paid for by TLY doesn't it? So professional investors are perfectly capable of understanding the balance sheet position and reading past the marketing pitch of having a lot of cash.

"This document is a marketing communication which is designed to educate and inform professional investors about the subject Group. The subject Group pays Capital Access Group a fixed annual fee to cover the costs of research production and distribution, and the research has not been prepared in accordance with regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research."

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2018 17:48

and given your view on the dire cash situation and negative cashflow, why did you buy 4 times!!!
Once I could understand but FOUR times!!!
Clearly your research is flawed...

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2018 17:46

1gw,
"My balance sheet comments are largely to point out how misleading the cheerleaders' comments could be when they compare cash on the balance sheet to market cap."



I would hardly call Allenby or Capital Access Group 'cheerleaders and misleading', just because they compare cash to mcap. I'm sure you could report them to the FCA and take them to court and see how you progress....
Each to their own... ;-)



"Having completed the transformational Vocare acquisition and added to its already well experienced management team, Totally is now tasked with grasping a very significant opportunity within UK healthcare. The NHS' direction of travel has been to address the impact of non-acute presentation at its hospitals. Totally is committed to building a business which provides this triage and a range of support services including, but not limited to, urgent care. While the company has not yet completed the “buyâ€A533; component of its “buy and buildâ€� strategy, it has made significant strides while retaining a key cash generative quality. Final results, for the 15-month period to March 2018, highlight great progress and prospects. We believe that the share price does not reflect this, offering an equity value only just over the current net cash position. It is time for the market to reflect on the prospects for a unique company operating in high growth markets."





"Strong net cash position of £10.2m
The Group ended the period in a strong financial position with net cash of £10.2m representing around 82% of the pre-results market cap of £12.4m. This reflects the fund raise of £17.6m in March 2017 and thus the Group is well placed to continue its stated buy & build strategy in the UK out-of-hospital healthcare sector. However, there is still a contingent consideration of up to £3m still to be paid and if payable this will reduce cash balances in FY202."

[1gw] 21/7/2018 16:01

I'm also surprised that those who claim to follow the company closely haven't thought it worth commenting on the change of wording in the "Basis of Preparation" section of the accounts between the 31st December 12-month interims and the 31st March 15-month results.

Why would they omit the reference to "continued shareholder support" in the later statement and change the emphasis from "...will enable the Group to meet its obligations and to implement its business plan in full..." to "...well placed to manage its business risks successfully despite the current uncertain economic outlook..."?

It looks like they have gone from being confident of implementing the business plan in full, to just being well-placed to manage the risks of the current business, doesn't it?


31st December interims:

"...Cash generation by the Group over the next year is expected to contribute to covering future liabilities. The Directors believe that a combination of the Group's current cash, projected revenues from existing and future contracts and continued shareholder support will enable the Group to meet its obligations and to implement its business plan in full. Inherently, there can be no certainty in these matters, but the Directors believe that the Group's internal trading forecasts are realistic and that the going concern basis of preparation continues to be appropriate."

31st March results:

"...The Group has considerable financial resources together with long term contracts with a number of customers and suppliers across different geographic areas within the
United Kingdom and industries. As a consequence, the Directors believe that the Group is well placed to manage its business risks successfully despite the current uncertain economic outlook.

The Directors have a reasonable expectation that the Company and the Group have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. The financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis which the Directors believe to be appropriate for the above reasons."

[deltrotter] 21/7/2018 15:45

Strategically ignorant as well Sikh....

[1gw] 21/7/2018 15:21

These boards can be a bit "Alice in Wonderland" at times. Who was focusing solely on the balance sheet?

My balance sheet comments are largely to point out how misleading the cheerleaders' comments could be when they compare cash on the balance sheet to market cap. If anything is myopic, that is - focusing solely on the cash on the balance sheet and ignoring what the rest of the balance sheet is saying. It is clearly good to have the cash, particularly if negative working capital is a feature of the business model, which it appears from the results presentation it may be. But in the context of the market cap, net current assets (or in this case, liabilities) are a much more significant metric than cash.

As someone said, you can't pay the bills with intangibles. The company has negative net tangible assets and negative operating cashflow (according to the 15-month accounts). Intangible assets are unlikely to be worth anything like their carrying value in a fire sale - i.e. where the company needed to raise cash in a hurry by selling assets to meet liabilities.

It will be interesting to see what if any comment the auditors make about the state of the balance sheet in the context of the "going concern" test when the annual report is published.

In the "base case" or directors' expectation case, everything will be fine. But what the balance sheet should show us is that it wouldn't take a huge headwind to leave the company in difficulty.

And that's before considering that the company wants to buy more assets. Can they use much of the cash on the balance sheet to buy assets if they have negative net current assets or might that be considered reckless - a breach of fiduciary duty if things subsequently go pear-shaped? If they need to raise funds for an acquisition through a placing, what sort of discount would they have to offer to get institutions to back it and would existing private investors also get the chance to buy at that placing price to avoid dilution?

I'm happy holding at these levels, but there are clearly downside risks as well as upside possibilities here.

[porky8] 21/7/2018 14:52

Sikhthetech
What a difference from the Dr Sinclair days .....

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2018 13:59

Del

"Yup you have to understand what they are aiming to achieve. If you focus solely on the balance sheet you will miss the point."

Spot on..

[sikhthetech] 21/7/2018 13:46

Mac,
"One of the rules Warren Buffett looks at before investing in a company is to check out how much of the company is owned by the board."

Here's a list of Warren Buffet's top 10 holdings.. Can you find ones where the bod have large holdings in these multi billion dollar companies?

[pugugly] 21/7/2018 10:59

Build and possibly fail - Remember Green Compliance - BH has had some failures in the past so suggest a lot of DYOR

Win some lose some but unless geared can only lose 100%
Now especially for GW - Suggest you look at my posts on SUS - A 6+bagger!!

[deltrotter] 21/7/2018 10:42

Yup you have to understand what they are aiming to achieve. If you focus solely on the balance sheet you will miss the point.

The company also highlighted this in the recent results.

A share for investors IMO...

[grahamwales] 21/7/2018 08:57

What pugly fails to mention is a forecasted profit in 2020. Now you can wait until next year to buy but my guess by then the price will be much higher and with About Health telling us that they are going to significantly expand the business it wouldn’t surprise me if they are close to becoming profitable in 2019.

As always read the information available to you.

Me I just keep buying and looking forward to the next couple of years

[deltrotter] 21/7/2018 07:56

Very, very true porky

[porky8] 20/7/2018 22:36

Outsourcing .... Easy to spin out ... Not too easy to spin back in ...

[spacedust] 20/7/2018 22:34

Coldspring I didnt mean it like that. Apologies. Don't feel you can't ask.

Almost everyone on this thread would bash me as a deramper. I am not.

I am a holder from many years ago at 120p which went to around 140p. Since then it's come crashing down to 21p.

I believe the story here and I recently bought in at 23p. I still hold those from 120p.

[coldspring] 20/7/2018 22:01

Well that's me told I won't ask a simple question in future as it brings out the trolls and the OMG are you thick posters. Have a great weekend folks let's hope we get a re rate next few sessions.

[pugugly] 20/7/2018 20:58

Coldspring - Read analyst's note (available on TLY website) and the last accounts - still buring cash and forecast to make losses next year as well - That imo is why funds are selling

PLUS of course if JC becomes PM likely that much of TLY contracts will be taken back in house - possibly without compensation on manufactured evidence that they are not performing to contract -

[spacedust] 20/7/2018 20:48

The reason is out there black bold and white. What's so confusing????

There is a seller selling millions.....this is why the share price is in decline. It will not recover until the seller is finished.

[coldspring] 20/7/2018 19:52

I understand some people wont invest unless the board have skin but it doesnt automatically make it a bad company to invest in. There has to be a bigger reason, I class myself as an amateur investor hence the query.