Toople Share Discussion Threads

[tewkesbury] 15/5/2019 21:51

If TOOP manage to get the direct customers total up to 12,000 by December 2019 (excluding wholesale) and sign-up at least 1000 pcm direct next year (excluding wholesale), that takes the direct customer numbers next year to around 25k and the share price next year just for direct customers (excluding wholesale) into into the 6.42p to 7.5p range using hottingup's revised calculations (below).

--------------

Market Share............Market Cap...............Share Price*

0.1% or 5,000 SME's = £10m to £14.2m = 1.077p to 1.5p or *1.29p to 1.5p
0.2% or 10,000 SME’s = £20m to £28.4m = 2.154p to 3p or *2.58p to 3p
0.3% or 15,000 SME’s = £30m to £42.6m = 3.231p to 4.5p or *3.87p to 4.5p
0.4% or 20,000 SME’s = £40m to £56.8m = 4.308p to 6.0p or *5.17p to 6.0p

0.5% or 25,000 SME's = £50m to £71 = 5.35p to 7.5p or *6.42p to 7.5p

0.75% or 37,500 SME’s = £75m to £106m = 8.077p to 10.5p or *9.69p to 10.5p

1% or 50,000 SME's = £100m to £142m = 10.77p to 15p or *12.92p to 15p
2% or 100,000 SME's = £201m to £284m = 21.54p to 30p or *25.85p to 30p
3% or 150,000 SME’s = £302m to £426m = 32.31p to 45p or *38.77p to 45p
4% or 200,000 SME’s = £403m to £568m = 43.08p to 60p or *51.69p to 60p
5% or 250,000 SME’s = £504m to £710m = 53.85p to 75p or *64.62p to 75p

7% or 350,000 SME's = £705m to £1000m = 75.39p to 107p or *90.46p to 107p

*KCom also had £108m net debt, so if you add that to the takeover figure of £504m, KCOM's true takeover valuation was £612m , i.e. the buyer would have paid an extra £108m if there had been zero debt; thus we could increase the valuations for Toop based on KCom as the comparitor (above) by another 20%.

[lukehold] 15/5/2019 21:49

What happened to this Golden Cross chart pattern...

[lukehold] 15/5/2019 21:43

600 or 1000 why guess, main thing is cost per acquisition is managed well and they don't run out of cash before hitting profitability

[tewkesbury] 15/5/2019 21:37

If they managed 600+ direct in April, that rate should increase each month going forward for the forseeable future. Hopefully 1000+ per month by December, direct with Toop, plus wholesale.

[marmiesz] 15/5/2019 21:24

I have a slightly different projection. I think we have about 6,000 SMEs as of March. April another 600 was added. If we average 500 pm that will bring us to 7,500 by September. By year end should reach 9,000. Marmie

[paulthomas103] 15/5/2019 21:24

Thanks Tewkesbury, I’m trying to work it out as well. If accurate it shows we are still hugely undervalued.

[tewkesbury] 15/5/2019 21:19

I'd say that at the end of April 2019, they already had 5,200 SME's direct with Toop, plus others through wholesale.

Going forward I'd say 12,000 direct SME's by end December 2019, plus wholesale.

Even just projecting 600+ pcm extra for the next 8 months for May to Dec would add another 4,800 direct with Toop this calendar year, but the 600+ pm will increase (it was April's figure). Plus something for wholesale.

If they use some of the placing cash for an accretive bolt on aquisition, the figures will take a leap up beyond the 12,000 above.

[marmiesz] 15/5/2019 20:38

By your estimates, how many do we currently have?Marmie

[hottingup] 15/5/2019 20:17

2mex #2574 re your calculation of TOOP's value on 10k and 20k SME sign-ups::

Recalculation of TOOP's valuation using KCOM (and Daisy) as the comparitors but taking into account KCOM had £108m net debt when taken over for £504m, effectively meaning the company was valued at £504m + £108m = £612m, i.e. approx 20% more. If TOOP get 1%, the share price comparitor with KCOM thus rises from 10.77p to 12.92p:


TOOP’s projected growth in market share (% or No of SME’s) with corresponding market capitalisation & share price, based on comparisons with recent takeover prices for KCOM (5% at £504m) and Daisy (7% at £1 billion [= 5% at £714m]):

Market Share............Market Cap...............Share Price*

0.1% or 5,000 SME's = £10m to £14.2m = 1.077p to 1.5p or *1.29p to 1.5p
0.2% or 10,000 SME’s = £20m to £28.4m = 2.154p to 3p or *2.58p to 3p
0.3% or 15,000 SME’s = £30m to £42.6m = 3.231p to 4.5p or *3.87p to 4.5p
0.4% or 20,000 SME’s = £40m to £56.8m = 4.308p to 6.0p or *5.17p to 6.0p

0.5% or 25,000 SME's = £50m to £71 = 5.35p to 7.5p or *6.42p to 7.5p

0.75% or 37,500 SME’s = £75m to £106m = 8.077p to 10.5p or *9.69p to 10.5p

1% or 50,000 SME's = £100m to £142m = 10.77p to 15p or *12.92p to 15p
2% or 100,000 SME's = £201m to £284m = 21.54p to 30p or *25.85p to 30p
3% or 150,000 SME’s = £302m to £426m = 32.31p to 45p or *38.77p to 45p
4% or 200,000 SME’s = £403m to £568m = 43.08p to 60p or *51.69p to 60p
5% or 250,000 SME’s = £504m to £710m = 53.85p to 75p or *64.62p to 75p

7% or 350,000 SME's = £705m to £1000m = 75.39p to 107p or *90.46p to 107p

*KCom also had £108m net debt, so if you add that to the takeover figure of £504m, KCOM's true takeover valuation was £612m , i.e. the buyer would have paid an extra £108m if there had been zero debt; thus we could increase the valuations for Toop based on KCom as the comparitor (above) by another 20%.

[2mex] 15/5/2019 20:17

Bob, indeed when you add in Merlin and the Management which includes Andy Hollingworth, Toople should be worth a premium. So, right now 3p seems the right ballpark for a share buyout.

[paulthomas103] 15/5/2019 20:15

So how many customers do you estimate toople currently have?

[bobdown2] 15/5/2019 19:57

Toople are very vulnerable at these levels. As a bolt on acquisition they stand out becuase of the merlin software platform, management and a customer base that is growing extremely quickly. Probably faster than its competitors. Like bt bought Plunet toople could be taken out by someone who wants exposure to their growth and get it on the cheap now whilst toople is still in its infancy. In the region of 300k of business being signed up a month ? It would be ideal for someone who had problems with their customer numbers.

[bibs] 15/5/2019 19:56

Today's interims represent a picture up to and including 31 March.
We are now mid way through May.
Been watching with great interest as overall numbers ramp up and some calculate and anticipate the end of year position / Mkt Cap.
A little adjustment and probable pipeline opportunities make for a hold and accumulate as far as I can see.
What happened recently is a snippet of a far bigger picture set to unfold IMO, not to mention possible JV or takeover opportunities that may arise.

[2mex] 15/5/2019 19:54

So I will land the ratio in the middle:
10,000 customers => £21 million...Toople share price 2.2p
20,000 customers => £42 million...Toople share price 4.4p
etc...

[2mex] 15/5/2019 19:47

Yes, a good point chestnuts. That moves fair value towards the TalkTalk ratio.

[chestnuts] 15/5/2019 19:45

2mex

You forgot the debt of Kcom

[2mex] 15/5/2019 19:42

Kcom has approx. 250,000 SME customers and agreed a takeover for £504 million.

So that's 250,000 customers => £504 million...

The customer base / value ratios involved with Kcom and TalkTalk are similar. It looks like TalkTalk's value was a bit more because some businesses may have been bigger. It points to the Kcom ratio being useful for valuation guidance.

[2mex] 15/5/2019 19:32

11 months ago Daisy were going to buy 80,000 business customers from TalkTalk for £175million.

The deal didn't go through. Since then Daisy has recently re-financed with a £1 billion cash pile.

They intend to make acquisitions. The TalkTalk deal didn't happen and that means they will want to accelerate to get back on the growth track intended last year.

So that's 80,000 customers => £175 million...

[realcooltrader] 15/5/2019 19:05

suit, bob, suit! Otherwise, totally agree.

[bobdown2] 15/5/2019 18:50

On today's like today there is nothing you can do....once you have built a large position you have to take the volatility that goes with it. Barclays this morning did not do a quote to buy or sell. Barclays quite often will only buy or sell at best so You are trading slightly blind. I still have exactly the same amount of shares now that I started with this morning. The results were good and as expected. The slight change of wording by the ceo was not. But value now will come from merlin and the growing customer base....toople will suite another supplier that needs a larger customer base and good software to go with it..

[verulamium] 15/5/2019 18:30

Phew, you're alright Bob. Was wondering if you'd disappeared. Today of all days...

[bobdown2] 15/5/2019 18:23

I once had a goldfish...that swam round and round. One morning I found it dead....something fishy happened.?

[volsung] 15/5/2019 17:21

I once had dog
A wondrous dog
He let me play with him in the park
After dark
In the park
Then he got sick
And we never played again
In the park after dark